Insee conjoncture
29 mai 2019
N° 2019-

Households’ purchasing power rose again in Q1 2019 (+0.9% after +1.1%)Quarterly national accounts - detailed figures - first quarter 2019

In Q1 2019, GDP in volume terms slightly slowed down : +0.3% after +0.4%.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated (+0.4% after +0.3%), while total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed down a bit (+0.5% after +0.6%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes kept increasing at the same pace: it contributed to GDP growth by +0.4% as in Q4 2018.

Imports accelerated (+1.4% after +1.1%) due to fuel imports whereas exports decelerated significantly (+0.4% after +2.0%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: -0.3 points, after +0.3 points in Q4. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth again (+0.3 points after –0.2 points).

*This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Informations rapides
Paru le : 29/05/2019
Prochaine parution le : 29/08/2019 at 08:45 - second quarter 2019
Please note

The publication of the quarterly national accounts issimplified as of Q2 2019.

The release of the Detailed figures, including the sectoral accounts (households’ purchasing power, corporations’ profit ratio, quarterly public deficit…), is brought forward from 85 to 60 days after the end of the quarter, starting with this publication. The data received after 60 days will be integrated in the following quarter’s First estimate, being late July for the estimate of the second quarter 2019.

This new calendar follows tests conducted since 2015, which showed that the estimate of the sectoral accounts from the data known at 60 days is robust. Furthermore, it articulates better with the release of the Conjoncture in France.

In Q1 2019, GDP in volume terms slightly slowed down : +0.3% after +0.4%.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated (+0.4% after +0.3%), while total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed down a bit (+0.5% after +0.6%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes kept increasing at the same pace: it contributed to GDP growth by +0.4% as in Q4 2018.

Imports accelerated (+1.4% after +1.1%) due to fuel imports whereas exports decelerated significantly (+0.4% after +2.0%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: -0.3 points, after +0.3 points in Q4. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth again (+0.3 points after –0.2 points).

*This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph 1GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components ()
Consumption GFCF Inventory changes Net foreign trade GDP
2016-Q1 0.66 0.21 -0.34 0.11 0.6
2016-Q2 0.16 -0.02 -0.68 0.26 -0.3
2016-Q3 0.1 0.09 0.45 -0.43 0.2
2016-Q4 0.62 0.21 -0.44 0.22 0.6
2017-Q1 0.18 0.52 0.82 -0.68 0.9
2017-Q2 0.26 0.24 -0.62 0.81 0.7
2017-Q3 0.46 0.26 0.15 -0.24 0.6
2017-Q4 0.17 0.19 -0.07 0.45 0.7
2018-Q1 0.14 -0.01 0.07 0.12 0.3
2018-Q2 -0.11 0.23 0.07 -0.04 0.2
2018-Q3 0.23 0.19 -0.38 0.22 0.3
2018-Q4 0.24 0.13 -0.22 0.27 0.4
2019-Q1 0.25 0.12 0.3 -0.32 0.3

Graph 1GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE.

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q1 2018 2019 (ovhg)
GDP 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.8
Imports 0.8 -0.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 2.3
Household consumption expenditure -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.6
GFCF 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 2.8 1.6
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 3.9 2.3
Households 0.7 0.3 -0.3 0.0 2.0 0.0
General government 1.4 0.2 1.0 0.7 2.4 1.9
Exports 0.7 0.5 2.0 0.4 3.5 2.3
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.9
Inventory changes 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.0
Net foreign trade 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.0
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2018 2019 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 1.2
Goods -0.7 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.9
Manufactured industry -0.2 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.0
Construction 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.0
Market services 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 3.1 1.5
Non-market services 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6
Household consumption -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.7
Food products -2.0 0.2 0.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5
Energy -3.6 0.2 -0.4 0.7 -1.0 -0.5
Engineered goods 1.0 0.0 -0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6
Services 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.9 1.3
GFCF 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 2.8 1.6
Manufactured goods 1.4 1.4 -0.4 1.7 2.1 2.5
Construction 0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.3 1.5 0.7
Market services 1.3 1.8 1.3 0.0 4.9 2.2
  • Source: Insee

Households’ gross disposable income remained dynamic in Q1 2019

Households’ gross disposable income (HGDI) slightly slowed down in Q1 2019 but has remained dynamic (+1.0% after +1.3%). The gross payroll received by households accelerated sharply (+1.1% after +0.6%) due to exceptional bonuses paid by some companies. Households’ social benefits also accelerated (+0.9% after +0.7%) due to the increase in the employment bonus combined with slightly less strict obtaining conditions. Social contributions paid by households kept on decreasing (–0.5% after –2.9%), thanks to the exemption of social contributions on overtime work. Conversely, taxes on income and wealth bounced back, mainly as an after-effect of the decrease in the housing tax during Q4 2018.

Households’ consumption prices has grown at the same past in Q1 2019 (+0.2% after +0.2%), so households’ purchasing power rose but slightly decelerated in Q1 2019 (+0.9% after +1.1%) in the same proportion as the HGDI. When measured per consumption unit, to be brought back to an individual level, it also decelerated (+0.7%, after +1.0%).

In Q1 2019, households’ consumption remained slightly dynamic (+0.4% after +0.3%), but still less than the HGDI purchasing power. Thus, their saving rate went up again: it stood at 15.3% after 14.9% in Q4 2018.

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2018 2019 (ovhg)
HDI 1.3 0.7 1.3 1.0 2.7 2.7
HDI (purchasing power) 0.9 0.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.1
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.7 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.8
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.8
Saving rate (level) 14.2 14.2 14.9 15.3 14.2
Financial saving rate (level) 4.1 4.0 4.9 5.4 4.0
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Non-financial corporations’ profit ratio markedly increases in early 2019

In Q1 2019, non-financial corporations’ profit ratio grew up significantly (it stood at 32.6% after 31.5%). The CICE (competitiveness and employment tax credit) has now been replaced by an exemption from employer social contributions. Thus, corporations benefit both from the exemptions from employer contribution and the CICE from 2018, resulting in a positive contribution to the profit ratio. Meanwhile, the negative contribution of the real wages, which has been boosted by the exceptional bonuses, was compensated by the positive effect of the productivity gains and the terms of trade.

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2017 2018
Profit share 30.9 31.1 31.5 32.6 31.8 31.2
Investment ratio 24.1 24.4 24.4 24.3 23.7 24.1
Savings ratio 22.4 23.1 22.4 24.1 23.2 22.6
Self-financing ratio 92.8 94.7 91.8 99.2 98.2 93.7
  • Source: Insee

General government deficit increased significantly in Q1 2019

In Q1 2019, general government net borrowing increased by 1 point, to 3.6% of the GDP after 2.6% in Q4 2018. Public expenditures slowed down (+0.3% after +0.7%) despite the dynamism of the social benefits, following the return at an average level of French contribution to the EU budget after a high fourth quarter. Meanwhile, revenues stepped back sharply (-1.6% after +1.0%): contribution earnings has been decreasing due to the replacement of the CICE, and company taxes are now decreasing after an important rise during the end of year.

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2017 2018
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 328.5 329.7 331.9 332.9 1294.2 1318.8
Total receipts 314.0 313.2 316.4 311.4 1230.4 1259.1
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -14.5 -16.5 -15.5 -21.6 -63.9 -59.6
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.5 -2.8 -2.6 -3.6 -2.8 -2.5
  • Source: Insee

Revisions

The extent of the revisions compared to the previous estimate is typical at this time of year: it results from the benchmarking on the annual accounts revised on years 2016 to 2018 and from the updates of seasonal and working day adjustments as well as revision of indicators. GDP growth in Q1 2018 is thus revised by +0,1 points. Furthermore, the car sales profile in the second half of 2018 has been revised to better reflect household and company’s behavior, leading to a revision of consumption and investment in Q3 and Q4 2018, and thus a revision of GDP growth during Q4 2018. During Q1 2019, revisions in different aggregates offset each other.

The GDP growth for Q1 2019 is thus confirmed at +0.3%.

Encadré

To go further

Next publication: July 30 2019 at 07:30 a.m.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)


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