Insee conjoncture
24 avril 2019
N° 2019-105

In April 2019, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate is less favourableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - April 2019

In April 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has lost two points in manufacturing industry and one point in building construction. It is stable in services and has gained two points in retail trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 105
Paru le : 24/04/2019
Prochaine parution le : 25/06/2019 at 08:45 - June 2019

The French business climate is stable, above its long-term mean

In April 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has lost two points in manufacturing industry and one point in building construction. It is stable in services and has gained two points in retail trade. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.5
1998-02 109.8
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.8
1998-05 111.9
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.3
1998-08 111.7
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 102.4
1999-02 102.6
1999-03 100.8
1999-04 101.8
1999-05 103.4
1999-06 102.7
1999-07 107.7
1999-08 110.6
1999-09 113.8
1999-10 115.4
1999-11 117.0
1999-12 118.5
2000-01 115.4
2000-02 115.8
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.4
2000-05 115.7
2000-06 117.8
2000-07 117.2
2000-08 117.9
2000-09 118.1
2000-10 116.4
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.5
2001-01 112.6
2001-02 112.5
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.5
2001-05 105.2
2001-06 104.4
2001-07 102.1
2001-08 100.6
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 93.9
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.6
2002-02 96.2
2002-03 98.2
2002-04 101.2
2002-05 102.6
2002-06 101.6
2002-07 98.8
2002-08 98.1
2002-09 97.1
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.6
2003-01 96.1
2003-02 95.3
2003-03 89.9
2003-04 87.5
2003-05 91.8
2003-06 91.8
2003-07 94.2
2003-08 95.2
2003-09 95.2
2003-10 96.1
2003-11 100.1
2003-12 101.4
2004-01 105.6
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 106.0
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.8
2004-08 106.9
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.9
2004-11 105.5
2004-12 106.8
2005-01 106.4
2005-02 106.5
2005-03 106.0
2005-04 105.4
2005-05 103.1
2005-06 104.3
2005-07 105.0
2005-08 104.7
2005-09 104.0
2005-10 106.9
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.3
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.3
2006-05 110.0
2006-06 109.4
2006-07 111.1
2006-08 111.4
2006-09 111.8
2006-10 111.7
2006-11 112.7
2006-12 111.3
2007-01 111.1
2007-02 112.8
2007-03 113.3
2007-04 113.9
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.4
2007-09 112.7
2007-10 112.0
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 111.7
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 109.3
2008-03 108.9
2008-04 106.2
2008-05 103.4
2008-06 100.4
2008-07 96.0
2008-08 94.7
2008-09 92.0
2008-10 83.2
2008-11 79.6
2008-12 75.5
2009-01 73.7
2009-02 71.1
2009-03 68.0
2009-04 68.9
2009-05 72.5
2009-06 75.4
2009-07 77.4
2009-08 81.3
2009-09 84.8
2009-10 87.5
2009-11 89.7
2009-12 90.4
2010-01 92.6
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 92.7
2010-04 97.0
2010-05 98.3
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 100.0
2010-08 102.4
2010-09 103.9
2010-10 104.9
2010-11 105.1
2010-12 106.9
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.6
2011-03 109.7
2011-04 109.6
2011-05 108.4
2011-06 108.8
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 98.1
2011-10 96.6
2011-11 94.6
2011-12 93.2
2012-01 92.4
2012-02 92.3
2012-03 94.8
2012-04 95.3
2012-05 91.8
2012-06 90.8
2012-07 88.5
2012-08 88.0
2012-09 86.6
2012-10 84.5
2012-11 86.2
2012-12 86.8
2013-01 86.8
2013-02 86.8
2013-03 85.1
2013-04 83.5
2013-05 84.7
2013-06 85.8
2013-07 87.5
2013-08 90.6
2013-09 94.0
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.9
2013-12 92.6
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.7
2014-04 94.5
2014-05 94.2
2014-06 93.1
2014-07 92.4
2014-08 91.1
2014-09 90.5
2014-10 90.6
2014-11 92.5
2014-12 92.6
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 93.6
2015-03 94.9
2015-04 96.0
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 97.8
2015-07 98.2
2015-08 99.7
2015-09 99.7
2015-10 100.6
2015-11 100.8
2015-12 99.3
2016-01 101.1
2016-02 100.2
2016-03 100.4
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.1
2016-06 100.4
2016-07 101.1
2016-08 100.6
2016-09 101.1
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.7
2016-12 103.9
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 104.0
2017-03 104.3
2017-04 104.5
2017-05 105.2
2017-06 106.6
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.4
2017-09 109.2
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 110.5
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.4
2018-02 109.5
2018-03 109.5
2018-04 108.8
2018-05 106.8
2018-06 106.6
2018-07 106.1
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.5
2018-10 103.7
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 101.9
2019-01 102.2
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 105.0
2019-04 105.4

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Dec. 18 Jan. 19 Feb. 19 Mar. 19 Apr. 19
Business climates
France 102 102 103 105 105
Manufacturing 103 103 103 103 101
Building construction 110 109 111 112 111
Services 102 104 103 105 105
Retail trade 99 100 102 103 105
Wholesale trade - 99 - 107 -
Employment climate
Employment 104 104 107 108 104
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is less favourable but remains at a relatively high level

In April 2019, the employment climate has deteriorated after having increased for the first three months of the year: the associated composite indicator has lost four points and stands at 104, returning to its January level, above its long-term average. This deterioration is due mainly to the decrease in the balance of opinion on past and expected workforce size in the service sector excluding temporary work agencies.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.8
1998-03 105.8
1998-04 107.6
1998-05 108.1
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.8
1998-11 105.5
1998-12 104.8
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.2
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.1
1999-12 118.7
2000-01 119.3
2000-02 117.2
2000-03 115.3
2000-04 113.3
2000-05 117.1
2000-06 120.9
2000-07 117.9
2000-08 119.6
2000-09 120.6
2000-10 120.3
2000-11 122.2
2000-12 120.9
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.6
2001-04 118.1
2001-05 113.5
2001-06 111.3
2001-07 107.7
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.7
2001-10 108.3
2001-11 102.3
2001-12 105.4
2002-01 103.5
2002-02 101.4
2002-03 103.3
2002-04 106.9
2002-05 104.6
2002-06 103.1
2002-07 104.0
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 97.8
2002-10 94.1
2002-11 97.6
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.2
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 92.2
2003-04 90.7
2003-05 89.9
2003-06 92.0
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 93.8
2003-09 93.7
2003-10 94.6
2003-11 93.3
2003-12 96.4
2004-01 98.8
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.3
2004-04 101.2
2004-05 103.7
2004-06 100.8
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.6
2004-10 102.8
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 101.9
2005-01 101.7
2005-02 102.0
2005-03 105.0
2005-04 101.9
2005-05 102.5
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 103.2
2005-08 103.7
2005-09 104.1
2005-10 104.5
2005-11 104.0
2005-12 103.1
2006-01 104.2
2006-02 104.4
2006-03 104.3
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.7
2006-06 110.5
2006-07 110.3
2006-08 109.4
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 108.7
2006-11 111.5
2006-12 112.2
2007-01 110.3
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.7
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 113.9
2007-06 113.3
2007-07 111.6
2007-08 112.8
2007-09 113.8
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 113.6
2007-12 115.8
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 115.1
2008-03 113.5
2008-04 114.0
2008-05 108.8
2008-06 105.0
2008-07 105.4
2008-08 100.8
2008-09 99.5
2008-10 94.5
2008-11 87.6
2008-12 81.9
2009-01 79.3
2009-02 78.2
2009-03 71.3
2009-04 71.9
2009-05 70.7
2009-06 71.9
2009-07 76.0
2009-08 80.9
2009-09 80.4
2009-10 82.5
2009-11 84.6
2009-12 87.4
2010-01 88.8
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.0
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.4
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 98.4
2010-08 98.6
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.0
2010-11 104.6
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.6
2011-02 110.2
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.7
2011-05 111.0
2011-06 111.6
2011-07 109.6
2011-08 105.1
2011-09 103.3
2011-10 100.3
2011-11 100.3
2011-12 98.8
2012-01 97.1
2012-02 97.0
2012-03 98.7
2012-04 96.7
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 92.7
2012-07 91.1
2012-08 92.4
2012-09 90.3
2012-10 90.1
2012-11 89.1
2012-12 88.8
2013-01 91.9
2013-02 88.0
2013-03 86.9
2013-04 84.7
2013-05 85.4
2013-06 87.7
2013-07 89.1
2013-08 88.9
2013-09 91.2
2013-10 93.2
2013-11 92.4
2013-12 94.4
2014-01 94.7
2014-02 94.0
2014-03 94.8
2014-04 97.8
2014-05 96.4
2014-06 94.7
2014-07 95.2
2014-08 93.7
2014-09 94.3
2014-10 94.1
2014-11 94.1
2014-12 94.3
2015-01 93.2
2015-02 95.4
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 99.0
2015-07 99.5
2015-08 100.3
2015-09 100.2
2015-10 100.5
2015-11 101.9
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 102.1
2016-02 100.6
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 100.6
2016-05 102.6
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.2
2016-09 105.1
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 104.9
2016-12 106.9
2017-01 105.5
2017-02 104.2
2017-03 107.9
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.3
2017-06 108.3
2017-07 107.6
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 107.2
2017-10 108.6
2017-11 108.6
2017-12 108.6
2018-01 109.1
2018-02 109.9
2018-03 109.9
2018-04 108.4
2018-05 108.3
2018-06 110.2
2018-07 107.8
2018-08 106.9
2018-09 107.6
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 104.0
2019-01 104.4
2019-02 107.0
2019-03 107.6
2019-04 104.5

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out an uncertain short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole has moved in the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Dec. 18 Jan. 19 Feb. 19 Mar. 19 Apr. 19
France 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.9 -0.2
Manufacturing 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.7
Building construction 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8
Services -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.8
Wholesale trade - -0.4 - 0.9 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.07
2010-02 -0.3
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.1
2010-05 0.26
2010-06 0.14
2010-07 0.22
2010-08 0.95
2010-09 0.94
2010-10 0.93
2010-11 0.83
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.97
2011-03 0.99
2011-04 0.88
2011-05 0.48
2011-06 0.6
2011-07 0.21
2011-08 -0.98
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.71
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.58
2012-01 -0.51
2012-02 -0.72
2012-03 0.4
2012-04 -0.09
2012-05 -0.83
2012-06 -0.98
2012-07 -0.97
2012-08 -0.81
2012-09 -0.65
2012-10 -0.99
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.67
2013-01 -0.59
2013-02 -0.85
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 0.17
2013-06 0.1
2013-07 0.35
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.97
2013-10 0.82
2013-11 0.11
2013-12 0.35
2014-01 0.74
2014-02 0.56
2014-03 0.73
2014-04 0.31
2014-05 0.16
2014-06 -0.22
2014-07 -0.01
2014-08 -0.35
2014-09 -0.12
2014-10 -0.35
2014-11 -0.19
2014-12 -0.17
2015-01 -0.38
2015-02 -0.31
2015-03 0.0
2015-04 0.04
2015-05 0.21
2015-06 0.12
2015-07 0.19
2015-08 0.16
2015-09 0.09
2015-10 0.15
2015-11 0.11
2015-12 0.11
2016-01 0.74
2016-02 0.73
2016-03 0.58
2016-04 0.54
2016-05 0.8
2016-06 -0.34
2016-07 0.25
2016-08 0.11
2016-09 0.68
2016-10 0.48
2016-11 0.45
2016-12 0.5
2017-01 0.42
2017-02 0.87
2017-03 0.43
2017-04 0.57
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.87
2017-07 0.71
2017-08 0.77
2017-09 0.98
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.79
2017-12 0.86
2018-01 0.73
2018-02 0.03
2018-03 0.53
2018-04 0.39
2018-05 0.23
2018-06 0.46
2018-07 0.34
2018-08 0.32
2018-09 0.66
2018-10 0.36
2018-11 0.48
2018-12 0.39
2019-01 0.66
2019-02 0.5
2019-03 0.86
2019-04 -0.16

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate in March 2019, the French business climate indicator for the whole economy has been revised upwards by one point. By sector, the business climate indicator has been raised by one point in industry and retail trade and by two points in services. The employment climate indicator has also been raised by one point. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

Encadré

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 23 May 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 23 May 2019 at 08:45 am


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