24 April 2019

2019- n° 103

In April 2019, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - April 2019

According to business managers surveyed in April 2019, the business climate in services is stable, at 105. The composite indicator which summarises it therefore remains above its long-term average (100).

Moreover, the business climate indicator of March 2019 has been revised upwards by two points due to a renewal of the survey sample and the integration of late responses of businesses.

The balance of opinion on past activity has increased again a little. In contrast, the balance on expected activity has slightly fallen back and that on expected demand is stable. Nevertheless, the business managers remain rather optimistic on the general outlook for activity on their sector: the corresponding balance has slightly increased again. These four balances are above their long-term average.

The balances on past and on expected employment have slightly shrunk, due to the sharp decrease in services except temporary work agencies. Otherwise, the share of business managers reporting difficulties in recruitment has increased again compared to the previous quarterly survey in January and reached its highest level since July 2001.

The balances on investment have decreased: that on past investment has edged down and has reached its average, that on expected investment has particularly fallen back but remains above its average.

The balance on past operating result has sharply gone up compared to January 2019, whereas that on expected result is stable. Both balances are above their average level.

Since July 2017, the business managers have reported more often difficulties of supply only than difficulties of demand only. It is the same in April 2019 – however the gap has narrowed.

In April 2019, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating an unfavourable short-term economic situation.

At sub-sector level, only the business climate in real estate activities stands below its long-term average. The climate is, otherwise, stable in this sub-sector and in professional, scientific and technical activities. It has slightly improved in information-communication and in administrative and support services where it has reached its average. The climate is a little less favourable than in March in road freight transport and in accommodation and food services.

In road transport, the business climate has lost one point, at 107,but remains well above its average. Only the balance of opinion on expected demand has improved. The balance on past activity has sharply fallen back. However, all balances are above their average.

After a marked increasein March 2019, the climate has lost one point in accommodation and food services. At 112, however, it remains largely above its long-term average. The balance on past activity has sharply improved whereas that on expected activity has weakened a little. The balances on employment have sharply deteriorated. The balance on past employment has even moved below its average, the other balances remain above theirs.

In information-communication, the business climate has gained one point (104), above its average. The balances on general outlook for activity and on expected demand have significantly grown, this last one has reached its highest level since July 2011. The balance on past employment has kept on increasing slightly. In contrast, the balances on past and expected activity have declined. Only the balance on expected employment stands below its average.

In real estate activities, the climate is stable, at 99, just below its long-term average. The slight increase in the balances on past and expected activity and on expected employment is offset by the decrease in the balance on expected demand.

The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities is stable (107), well above its average. The sharp rebound in the balance on general outlook is offset by the decline in the balances on expected activity, expected demand and on past employment. All balances are above their long-term average.

In administrative and support service activities, the climate has improved a little and reached its average (100). The balances on general outlook and on past activity have sharply bounced back. In contrast, the balances on expected activity and on expected demand have continued to decrease. Only the balance on general outlook stands well above its average, that on past activity has reached its. The other balances stand below their average level.