Informations rapides
26 March 2019
2019 - n° 79
In March 2019, the French business climate and the employment climate improve slightly Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - March 2019

In March 2019, the business climate is slightly more favorable than in February. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point: it stands at 104, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator is stable or virtually stable in services, retail trade, manufacturing industry and building construction. It has bounced back by eight points in wholesale trade, compared to the bimonthly survey of January. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 79
Paru le : Paru le 26/03/2019
Prochaine parution le : 28/03/2023 at 08:45 - March 2023

The French business climate improves slightly, above its long-term mean

In March 2019, the business climate is slightly more favorable than in February. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point: it stands at 104, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator is stable or virtually stable in services, retail trade, manufacturing industry and building construction. It has bounced back by eight points in wholesale trade, compared to the bimonthly survey of January. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.5
1998-02 109.8
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.8
1998-05 111.9
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.3
1998-08 111.7
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.1
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 102.4
1999-02 102.6
1999-03 100.8
1999-04 101.8
1999-05 103.4
1999-06 102.7
1999-07 107.8
1999-08 110.6
1999-09 113.8
1999-10 115.4
1999-11 117.0
1999-12 118.5
2000-01 115.4
2000-02 115.8
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.4
2000-05 115.8
2000-06 117.8
2000-07 117.2
2000-08 117.9
2000-09 118.1
2000-10 116.4
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.5
2001-01 112.6
2001-02 112.5
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.5
2001-05 105.2
2001-06 104.4
2001-07 102.1
2001-08 100.6
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 93.9
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.7
2002-02 96.2
2002-03 98.2
2002-04 101.3
2002-05 102.6
2002-06 101.6
2002-07 98.8
2002-08 98.1
2002-09 97.1
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.6
2003-01 96.1
2003-02 95.3
2003-03 89.9
2003-04 87.5
2003-05 91.8
2003-06 91.8
2003-07 94.3
2003-08 95.2
2003-09 95.2
2003-10 96.2
2003-11 100.1
2003-12 101.4
2004-01 105.6
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 106.0
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.8
2004-08 106.9
2004-09 106.7
2004-10 107.9
2004-11 105.5
2004-12 106.9
2005-01 106.4
2005-02 106.5
2005-03 106.0
2005-04 105.4
2005-05 103.1
2005-06 104.3
2005-07 105.0
2005-08 104.7
2005-09 104.0
2005-10 106.9
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.3
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.3
2006-05 110.0
2006-06 109.4
2006-07 111.1
2006-08 111.4
2006-09 111.8
2006-10 111.7
2006-11 112.7
2006-12 111.3
2007-01 111.1
2007-02 112.8
2007-03 113.3
2007-04 113.9
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.4
2007-09 112.7
2007-10 112.0
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 111.7
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 109.3
2008-03 108.9
2008-04 106.2
2008-05 103.4
2008-06 100.4
2008-07 96.1
2008-08 94.7
2008-09 92.0
2008-10 83.3
2008-11 79.6
2008-12 75.5
2009-01 73.8
2009-02 71.1
2009-03 68.0
2009-04 68.9
2009-05 72.5
2009-06 75.5
2009-07 77.5
2009-08 81.3
2009-09 84.9
2009-10 87.6
2009-11 89.8
2009-12 90.4
2010-01 92.6
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 92.7
2010-04 97.1
2010-05 98.3
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 100.0
2010-08 102.4
2010-09 103.9
2010-10 104.9
2010-11 105.1
2010-12 106.9
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.6
2011-03 109.7
2011-04 109.6
2011-05 108.4
2011-06 108.8
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 98.1
2011-10 96.6
2011-11 94.6
2011-12 93.2
2012-01 92.5
2012-02 92.3
2012-03 94.8
2012-04 95.3
2012-05 91.8
2012-06 90.8
2012-07 88.5
2012-08 88.0
2012-09 86.7
2012-10 84.5
2012-11 86.2
2012-12 86.8
2013-01 86.9
2013-02 86.9
2013-03 85.1
2013-04 83.5
2013-05 84.8
2013-06 85.8
2013-07 87.5
2013-08 90.6
2013-09 94.0
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.9
2013-12 92.6
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.7
2014-04 94.5
2014-05 94.2
2014-06 93.1
2014-07 92.4
2014-08 91.1
2014-09 90.5
2014-10 90.6
2014-11 92.6
2014-12 92.6
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 93.6
2015-03 94.9
2015-04 96.0
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 97.8
2015-07 98.3
2015-08 99.7
2015-09 99.7
2015-10 100.6
2015-11 100.8
2015-12 99.3
2016-01 101.1
2016-02 100.2
2016-03 100.4
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.1
2016-06 100.4
2016-07 101.2
2016-08 100.6
2016-09 101.2
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.7
2016-12 103.9
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 104.1
2017-03 104.3
2017-04 104.5
2017-05 105.3
2017-06 106.6
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.4
2017-09 109.2
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 110.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 110.4
2018-02 109.5
2018-03 109.5
2018-04 108.8
2018-05 106.8
2018-06 106.6
2018-07 106.1
2018-08 105.3
2018-09 105.5
2018-10 103.8
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 101.9
2019-01 102.4
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 104.5

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Nov. 18 Dec. 18 Jan. 19 Feb. 19 Mar. 19
Business climates
France 105 102 102 103 104
Manufacturing 105 103 103 103 102
Building construction 109 110 109 111 112
Services 104 102 104 103 103
Retail trade 107 99 100 102 102
Wholesale trade 104 - 99 - 107
Employment climate
Employment 105 104 104 107 108
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has slightly improved, to a relatively high level

In March 2019, the employment climate has improved again a little, after a more marked increase in February: the associated composite indicator has gained one point and stands at 108, well above its long-term average. This improvement is due mainly to the increase in the balance of opinion on expected workforce size in the service sector excluding temporary work agencies.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.8
1998-03 105.8
1998-04 107.5
1998-05 108.1
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.5
1998-12 104.8
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.2
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.1
1999-12 118.7
2000-01 119.3
2000-02 117.2
2000-03 115.3
2000-04 113.3
2000-05 117.1
2000-06 120.9
2000-07 117.9
2000-08 119.6
2000-09 120.6
2000-10 120.3
2000-11 122.2
2000-12 120.9
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.9
2001-03 118.6
2001-04 118.1
2001-05 113.5
2001-06 111.3
2001-07 107.7
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.7
2001-10 108.4
2001-11 102.4
2001-12 105.4
2002-01 103.6
2002-02 101.5
2002-03 103.3
2002-04 106.9
2002-05 104.6
2002-06 103.1
2002-07 104.0
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 97.8
2002-10 94.1
2002-11 97.6
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.2
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 92.3
2003-04 90.7
2003-05 89.9
2003-06 92.0
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 93.8
2003-09 93.8
2003-10 94.7
2003-11 93.3
2003-12 96.4
2004-01 98.9
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.4
2004-04 101.2
2004-05 103.7
2004-06 100.8
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.6
2004-10 102.8
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 101.9
2005-01 101.7
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 105.1
2005-04 101.9
2005-05 102.5
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 103.2
2005-08 103.7
2005-09 104.1
2005-10 104.5
2005-11 103.9
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.2
2006-02 104.4
2006-03 104.3
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.7
2006-06 110.5
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.4
2006-09 108.4
2006-10 108.7
2006-11 111.4
2006-12 112.1
2007-01 110.2
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.8
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 113.9
2007-06 113.3
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 112.9
2007-09 113.9
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 113.5
2007-12 115.7
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 115.1
2008-03 113.6
2008-04 114.0
2008-05 108.9
2008-06 105.0
2008-07 105.5
2008-08 100.9
2008-09 99.6
2008-10 94.5
2008-11 87.5
2008-12 81.8
2009-01 79.2
2009-02 78.2
2009-03 71.5
2009-04 72.0
2009-05 70.8
2009-06 72.0
2009-07 76.1
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 80.5
2009-10 82.5
2009-11 84.5
2009-12 87.2
2010-01 88.7
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.0
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 98.4
2010-08 98.6
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.0
2010-11 104.5
2010-12 105.1
2011-01 103.5
2011-02 110.2
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.7
2011-05 111.0
2011-06 111.6
2011-07 109.6
2011-08 105.1
2011-09 103.4
2011-10 100.3
2011-11 100.2
2011-12 98.7
2012-01 97.1
2012-02 97.0
2012-03 98.7
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 94.7
2012-06 92.8
2012-07 91.1
2012-08 92.5
2012-09 90.3
2012-10 90.1
2012-11 89.1
2012-12 88.8
2013-01 91.9
2013-02 88.0
2013-03 87.0
2013-04 84.8
2013-05 85.5
2013-06 87.8
2013-07 89.1
2013-08 88.9
2013-09 91.2
2013-10 93.2
2013-11 92.4
2013-12 94.4
2014-01 94.7
2014-02 94.0
2014-03 94.8
2014-04 97.8
2014-05 96.4
2014-06 94.7
2014-07 95.2
2014-08 93.7
2014-09 94.3
2014-10 94.1
2014-11 94.1
2014-12 94.3
2015-01 93.2
2015-02 95.4
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 99.0
2015-07 99.4
2015-08 100.3
2015-09 100.2
2015-10 100.5
2015-11 101.8
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 102.1
2016-02 100.6
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 100.6
2016-05 102.6
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.2
2016-09 105.1
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 104.9
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.5
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 107.9
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.3
2017-06 108.3
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 107.2
2017-10 108.6
2017-11 108.6
2017-12 108.6
2018-01 109.1
2018-02 109.9
2018-03 109.9
2018-04 108.3
2018-05 108.4
2018-06 110.2
2018-07 107.8
2018-08 106.9
2018-09 107.6
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 103.9
2019-01 104.4
2019-02 107.1
2019-03 108.0

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Nov. 18 Dec. 18 Jan. 18 Feb. 19 Mar. 19
France 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5
Manufacturing 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4
Building construction 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6
Services -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8
Wholesale trade 0.3 - -0.4 - 0.9
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.07
2010-02 -0.3
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.1
2010-05 0.26
2010-06 0.14
2010-07 0.22
2010-08 0.95
2010-09 0.94
2010-10 0.93
2010-11 0.83
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.97
2011-03 0.99
2011-04 0.88
2011-05 0.48
2011-06 0.6
2011-07 0.21
2011-08 -0.98
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.71
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.58
2012-01 -0.51
2012-02 -0.72
2012-03 0.4
2012-04 -0.09
2012-05 -0.83
2012-06 -0.98
2012-07 -0.97
2012-08 -0.81
2012-09 -0.65
2012-10 -0.99
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.67
2013-01 -0.59
2013-02 -0.85
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 0.17
2013-06 0.1
2013-07 0.35
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.97
2013-10 0.82
2013-11 0.11
2013-12 0.35
2014-01 0.74
2014-02 0.56
2014-03 0.73
2014-04 0.31
2014-05 0.16
2014-06 -0.22
2014-07 -0.01
2014-08 -0.35
2014-09 -0.12
2014-10 -0.35
2014-11 -0.19
2014-12 -0.17
2015-01 -0.38
2015-02 -0.31
2015-03 0.0
2015-04 0.04
2015-05 0.21
2015-06 0.12
2015-07 0.19
2015-08 0.16
2015-09 0.09
2015-10 0.15
2015-11 0.11
2015-12 0.11
2016-01 0.74
2016-02 0.73
2016-03 0.58
2016-04 0.54
2016-05 0.8
2016-06 -0.34
2016-07 0.25
2016-08 0.11
2016-09 0.68
2016-10 0.48
2016-11 0.45
2016-12 0.5
2017-01 0.42
2017-02 0.87
2017-03 0.43
2017-04 0.57
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.87
2017-07 0.71
2017-08 0.77
2017-09 0.98
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.79
2017-12 0.86
2018-01 0.73
2018-02 0.03
2018-03 0.53
2018-04 0.39
2018-05 0.23
2018-06 0.46
2018-07 0.34
2018-08 0.32
2018-09 0.66
2018-10 0.36
2018-11 0.48
2018-12 0.39
2019-01 0.66
2019-02 0.5
2019-03 0.46

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate in February 2019, the business climate indicator has been revised upwards by one point in services. The employment climate indicator has also been raised by one point. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 24 April 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

Pour en savoir plus

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 24 April 2019 at 08:45 am

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