21 February 2019

2019

In February 2019, the business climate has improved in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - February 2019

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has improved in February 2019. The composite indicator that measures it has gained two points, to 102, and has returned above its long-term average (100).

The business climate indicator of January 2019 has been revised upward by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.

In February 2019, the managers are more optimistic than in January concerning the general business outlook of the sector: after a sharp fall in December and a rebound started in January, the corresponding balance of opinion has risen again and has returned above its long-term mean, practically to its level of November 2018. Fewer managers than in January have anticipated a decrease in their sales for the next three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has recovered but remains below its long-term mean. Nevertheless, that on past sales has deteriorated and has deviated even more from its long-term mean, reaching its lowest level since May 2017. The ordering intentions have hardly improved – the corresponding balance of opinion has just come back to its mean – maybe linked with the disposal of stocks. Indeed, stocks are deemed slightly lower: the associated balance has decreased after reaching in December 2018 its highest level since December 2016; it remains however above its mean. The balance of opinion on expected prices has recovered markedly and remains above its mean.

More managers than in January have reported an increase in their staff size during the last three months; the corresponding balance has recovered and has returned to its average. In trade and repair of motor vehicles, it has reached a level unseen since the beginning of the series (February 2003). In contrast, concerning expected employment, the balance of opinon has slipped back and has returned below its average.

In retail trade, the business climate is less unfavourable than in January: the composite indicator that measures it has gained two points, to 96, still below its long-term mean.

Retailers are more optimistic than in January concerning the general business outlook of the sector: the corresponding balance has risen markedly for the second month in a row and has returned above its long-term mean. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has sharply bounced back in non-specialised retail trade whereas it has fallen back in specialised retail trade. In both sectors, it remains below its long-term mean. Many more retailers of non-specialised retail trade than in January have indicated a decrease in their past sales: the corresponding balance of opinion has plummeted whereas that on expected sales has bounced back. However, both balances stand below their average. In contrast, specialised retailers are as pessimistic as in last month concerning their past sales and more of them have expected a decrease in their future sales. Both balances of opinion remain below their average. Overall, retailers have reported slightly lower stocks: the corresponding balance has decreased again a little and has returned to its average. Many more retailers have anticipated a rise in their prices: after a sharp fall in January, the corresponding balance has bounced back in February and has returned above its mean.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate has recovered and has gained three points. At 109, it remains largely above its long-term average (100).

The balances concerning the general business outlook and expected prices have increased markedly and have exceeded their long-term average even more. The balance of opinion on past sales has bounced back but remains below its mean. That on ordering intentions has slightly risen and so remains above its mean. Stocks are estimated less high than in January: the corresponding balance has decreased but is still at a high level. The balance of opinion on expected prices is virtually stable, just below its mean.