21 February 2019

2019- n° 41

In February 2019, the business climate weakens in services Monthly survey of services - February 2019

According to business managers surveyed in February 2019, the business climate in services has weakened. The business climate composite indicator has lost two points. However, at 102, it remains above its long-term average (100). It has hovered around 103 since autumn 2018.

Otherwise, the indicator of January 2019 has been revised upward by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.

The business managers are less optimistic than the previous month on their own activity prospects : the balances of opinion on expected demand and on expected activity have sharply decreased. That on past activity is stable. However, that on general outlook has slightly improved. These four balances remains equal to or higher than their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on expected selling prices has slightly declined since December and stands at its average. In contrast, that on past prices has sharply bounced back and returned above its.

The balance on expected employment has fallen back and moved away from its average. That relating to the past change in workforce size has increased for two months in a row but remains below its average.

The balance on expected investments has continued to increase and reached its highest level since September 2011; in contrast, that on past investments has markedly decreased again and returned below its average.

In February 2019, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating an unfavourable short-term economic situation.

The business indicator is stable or virtually stable in information-communication and in accommodation and food services. The climate has deteriorated in the other sub-sectors and has even passed below its average in administrative and support service activities. In real estate activities, it remains deteriorated. In other sub-sectors, it is above its long-term average.

In road transport, the business climate has lost three points. However, at 105, it remains above its average level. The balance on expected demand has slipped back, as well as the balance on expected activity that has plummeted below its average. In contrast, the balances on past activity and past employment have sharply picked up and stand above their average.

In accommodation and food services, the climate is virtually stable (103), above its long-term average. The balances on past activity and on past employment have significantly bounced back, that on expected activity has slightly recovered. In contrast, that on expected demand has sharply declined. All balances are above or equal to their average level.

In information-communication, the business climate is stable (102), above its average. The increase in the balances of opinion on past activity and on expected employment is offset by the decrease in those on general outlook, on expected activity and on expected demand. Except those on employment, the balances are above their average.

In real estate activities, the climate has slightly fallen back to 95, still below its average level. The balances on expected activity and on expected employment have declined. In contrast, the balances on past activity, on expected demand and on general outlook have strengthened.

The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has lost one point (106) but stands well above its long-term average. The balances on past and expected activity, on expected demand and on expected employment have declined. The balance on past activity has even reached its lowest level since May 2016. However, only this balance has fallen below its average, the other balances standing above their own.

In administrative and support service activities, the climate has lost four points. At 99, it has fallen below its average level for the first time since October 2015. All balances of opinion have decreased, except that on past employment. Especially, those on expected activity and on expected demand have sharply worsened. Only the balance on general outlook remains above its average.