Insee conjoncture
21 février 2019
N° 2019-41

In February 2019, the business climate weakens in servicesMonthly survey of services - February 2019

According to business managers surveyed in February 2019, the business climate in services has weakened. The business climate composite indicator has lost two points. However, at 102, it remains above its long-term average (100). It has hovered around 103 since autumn 2018.

Informations rapides
No 41
Paru le : 21/02/2019
Prochaine parution le : 26/03/2019 at 08:45 - March 2019

According to business managers surveyed in February 2019, the business climate in services has weakened. The business climate composite indicator has lost two points. However, at 102, it remains above its long-term average (100). It has hovered around 103 since autumn 2018.

Otherwise, the indicator of January 2019 has been revised upward by one point because of late businesses’ answers that have been taken into account.

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
1998-01 104.4
1998-02 105.6
1998-03 106.8
1998-04 108.0
1998-05 107.7
1998-06 107.3
1998-07 106.9
1998-08 106.0
1998-09 105.2
1998-10 104.3
1998-11 102.5
1998-12 100.6
1999-01 98.7
1999-02 99.6
1999-03 100.5
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 102.9
1999-06 104.4
1999-07 106.0
1999-08 108.7
1999-09 111.5
1999-10 114.2
1999-11 112.7
1999-12 111.2
2000-01 109.6
2000-02 109.0
2000-03 108.5
2000-04 107.9
2000-05 111.3
2000-06 114.8
2000-07 113.2
2000-08 115.4
2000-09 116.9
2000-10 116.2
2000-11 115.1
2000-12 115.7
2001-01 114.8
2001-02 113.5
2001-03 113.8
2001-04 109.2
2001-05 106.3
2001-06 106.1
2001-07 103.6
2001-08 102.9
2001-09 101.5
2001-10 96.2
2001-11 95.5
2001-12 95.8
2002-01 96.9
2002-02 98.2
2002-03 102.3
2002-04 104.7
2002-05 105.6
2002-06 102.8
2002-07 101.0
2002-08 99.5
2002-09 97.4
2002-10 98.2
2002-11 99.7
2002-12 100.8
2003-01 97.1
2003-02 95.6
2003-03 90.4
2003-04 87.4
2003-05 91.9
2003-06 93.5
2003-07 96.9
2003-08 98.4
2003-09 99.4
2003-10 100.3
2003-11 101.8
2003-12 104.3
2004-01 106.7
2004-02 106.7
2004-03 106.4
2004-04 106.2
2004-05 106.8
2004-06 105.6
2004-07 107.0
2004-08 106.4
2004-09 105.7
2004-10 107.0
2004-11 106.4
2004-12 109.5
2005-01 107.0
2005-02 106.6
2005-03 108.9
2005-04 108.6
2005-05 106.5
2005-06 109.0
2005-07 108.4
2005-08 108.0
2005-09 107.6
2005-10 109.1
2005-11 107.0
2005-12 107.2
2006-01 109.4
2006-02 106.8
2006-03 108.2
2006-04 108.6
2006-05 111.4
2006-06 110.0
2006-07 111.3
2006-08 111.4
2006-09 111.6
2006-10 111.9
2006-11 114.3
2006-12 112.5
2007-01 111.9
2007-02 113.3
2007-03 114.6
2007-04 114.2
2007-05 114.2
2007-06 113.8
2007-07 114.3
2007-08 113.4
2007-09 112.5
2007-10 111.1
2007-11 111.2
2007-12 110.0
2008-01 111.4
2008-02 109.5
2008-03 109.6
2008-04 107.9
2008-05 105.1
2008-06 101.7
2008-07 96.9
2008-08 95.3
2008-09 93.0
2008-10 83.6
2008-11 79.2
2008-12 75.7
2009-01 72.8
2009-02 71.5
2009-03 65.8
2009-04 65.9
2009-05 70.4
2009-06 75.4
2009-07 79.5
2009-08 82.5
2009-09 86.0
2009-10 89.4
2009-11 90.9
2009-12 91.5
2010-01 93.2
2010-02 93.4
2010-03 93.6
2010-04 97.1
2010-05 99.0
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 99.0
2010-08 100.7
2010-09 101.7
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 105.2
2010-12 107.4
2011-01 107.7
2011-02 110.1
2011-03 111.4
2011-04 110.0
2011-05 108.4
2011-06 108.0
2011-07 105.8
2011-08 100.9
2011-09 98.4
2011-10 97.1
2011-11 94.8
2011-12 94.4
2012-01 92.4
2012-02 91.7
2012-03 93.1
2012-04 95.3
2012-05 91.3
2012-06 89.1
2012-07 88.5
2012-08 86.3
2012-09 85.9
2012-10 84.7
2012-11 84.0
2012-12 85.8
2013-01 86.9
2013-02 85.6
2013-03 82.5
2013-04 81.5
2013-05 83.1
2013-06 84.6
2013-07 85.1
2013-08 87.2
2013-09 91.2
2013-10 90.6
2013-11 91.5
2013-12 89.9
2014-01 91.4
2014-02 91.2
2014-03 92.1
2014-04 92.6
2014-05 91.4
2014-06 91.4
2014-07 91.7
2014-08 90.6
2014-09 90.0
2014-10 90.2
2014-11 90.2
2014-12 90.3
2015-01 90.0
2015-02 90.4
2015-03 91.3
2015-04 93.2
2015-05 94.6
2015-06 96.2
2015-07 97.0
2015-08 98.2
2015-09 97.2
2015-10 99.3
2015-11 99.0
2015-12 96.8
2016-01 99.8
2016-02 99.7
2016-03 99.4
2016-04 98.4
2016-05 100.6
2016-06 98.9
2016-07 100.2
2016-08 99.8
2016-09 100.8
2016-10 100.4
2016-11 100.6
2016-12 103.9
2017-01 101.7
2017-02 102.8
2017-03 103.8
2017-04 103.9
2017-05 102.7
2017-06 103.7
2017-07 104.1
2017-08 106.2
2017-09 107.3
2017-10 106.9
2017-11 107.9
2017-12 109.7
2018-01 108.3
2018-02 106.9
2018-03 107.5
2018-04 106.9
2018-05 104.3
2018-06 105.1
2018-07 104.6
2018-08 103.6
2018-09 104.8
2018-10 102.8
2018-11 103.7
2018-12 102.2
2019-01 103.6
2019-02 102.1

Business climate composite indicator

The opinion of business managers on their own activity prospects has deteriorated

The business managers are less optimistic than the previous month on their own activity prospects : the balances of opinion on expected demand and on expected activity have sharply decreased. That on past activity is stable. However, that on general outlook has slightly improved. These four balances remains equal to or higher than their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on expected selling prices has slightly declined since December and stands at its average. In contrast, that on past prices has sharply bounced back and returned above its.

The balance on expected employment has fallen back and moved away from its average. That relating to the past change in workforce size has increased for two months in a row but remains below its average.

The balance on expected investments has continued to increase and reached its highest level since September 2011; in contrast, that on past investments has markedly decreased again and returned below its average.

In February 2019, the turning point indicator remains in the area indicating an unfavourable short-term economic situation.

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.97
2010-02 -0.18
2010-03 0.48
2010-04 0.89
2010-05 0.99
2010-06 0.88
2010-07 0.74
2010-08 0.97
2010-09 0.97
2010-10 0.96
2010-11 0.96
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.91
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 1.0
2011-04 0.9
2011-05 0.38
2011-06 0.59
2011-07 -0.04
2011-08 -0.89
2011-09 -0.99
2011-10 -0.87
2011-11 -0.83
2011-12 -0.7
2012-01 -0.76
2012-02 -0.89
2012-03 -0.59
2012-04 -0.55
2012-05 -0.94
2012-06 -0.99
2012-07 -0.89
2012-08 -0.93
2012-09 -0.79
2012-10 -0.9
2012-11 -0.88
2012-12 -0.61
2013-01 -0.36
2013-02 -0.93
2013-03 -0.96
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 -0.88
2013-06 -0.69
2013-07 -0.62
2013-08 -0.51
2013-09 0.35
2013-10 -0.4
2013-11 -0.08
2013-12 -0.58
2014-01 -0.39
2014-02 -0.33
2014-03 -0.27
2014-04 -0.27
2014-05 -0.91
2014-06 -0.8
2014-07 -0.69
2014-08 -0.85
2014-09 -0.7
2014-10 -0.61
2014-11 -0.95
2014-12 -0.89
2015-01 -0.76
2015-02 -0.78
2015-03 -0.65
2015-04 -0.55
2015-05 0.65
2015-06 0.93
2015-07 0.9
2015-08 0.87
2015-09 -0.26
2015-10 0.86
2015-11 0.79
2015-12 -0.38
2016-01 0.6
2016-02 0.7
2016-03 0.46
2016-04 0.29
2016-05 0.83
2016-06 -0.45
2016-07 0.26
2016-08 -0.03
2016-09 0.48
2016-10 0.56
2016-11 0.45
2016-12 0.94
2017-01 0.75
2017-02 0.98
2017-03 0.93
2017-04 0.85
2017-05 0.44
2017-06 0.95
2017-07 0.84
2017-08 0.85
2017-09 0.98
2017-10 0.95
2017-11 0.95
2017-12 0.98
2018-01 0.76
2018-02 0.26
2018-03 0.4
2018-04 0.36
2018-05 -0.38
2018-06 0.58
2018-07 0.43
2018-08 -0.31
2018-09 -0.03
2018-10 -0.86
2018-11 -0.69
2018-12 -0.61
2019-01 -0.35
2019-02 -0.73

Turning-point indicator

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* Nov. 2018 Dec. 2018 Jan. 2019 Feb. 2019
Composite indicator 100 104 102 104 102
General outlook -7 0 -4 -3 -2
Past activity 2 3 3 2 2
Expected activity 2 3 7 7 2
Expected demand 0 5 0 5 2
Past selling prices -4 -8 -2 -7 -1
Expected selling prices -3 -3 0 -2 -3
Past employment 3 -2 -7 -5 0
except temporary work agencies 1 0 0 -1 3
Expected employment 3 6 -2 2 -2
except temporary work agencies 0 2 1 4 2
Investments
Past investments 2 7 8 4 0
Expected investments 2 1 2 4 8
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business indicator is stable or virtually stable in information-communication and in accommodation and food services. The climate has deteriorated in the other sub-sectors and has even passed below its average in administrative and support service activities. In real estate activities, it remains deteriorated. In other sub-sectors, it is above its long-term average.

In road freight transport, the business climate is less favourable

In road transport, the business climate has lost three points. However, at 105, it remains above its average level. The balance on expected demand has slipped back, as well as the balance on expected activity that has plummeted below its average. In contrast, the balances on past activity and past employment have sharply picked up and stand above their average.

In accommodation and food services, the business climate is virtually stable

In accommodation and food services, the climate is virtually stable (103), above its long-term average. The balances on past activity and on past employment have significantly bounced back, that on expected activity has slightly recovered. In contrast, that on expected demand has sharply declined. All balances are above or equal to their average level.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* Nov. 2018 Dec. 2018 Jan. 2019 Feb. 2019
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 107 107 108 105
Past activity -6 5 5 -4 5
Expected activity -7 4 1 6 -8
Expected demand -9 1 -1 4 0
Past employment -5 2 3 2 10
Expected employment -8 3 8 3 5
General outlook -19 -3 -8 -7 -3
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 113 100 102 103
Past activity -7 12 1 -10 -1
Expected activity -7 2 -5 -9 -7
Expected demand -9 6 -9 -1 -8
Past employment -4 -2 -10 -8 -1
Expected employment -5 -8 -10 -2 -3
General outlook -13 1 -16 -10 -10
Information and communication (24%)
Composite indicator 100 100 101 102 102
Past activity 8 -5 6 8 11
Expected activity 9 4 17 16 12
Expected demand 10 3 3 14 12
Expected demand 7 8 12 7 7
Expected employment 11 13 6 6 9
General outlook 0 2 0 4 2
Real estate activities (13%)
Real estate activities (13%) 100 89 95 96 95
Past activity 7 2 -2 -3 1
Expected activity 7 -1 1 5 2
Expected demand 2 7 -1 -2 0
Past employment 3 -7 6 3 3
Expected employment 3 -3 8 7 3
General outlook -3 -13 -10 -10 -9
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 105 105 107 106
Past activity -1 5 6 2 -4
Expected activity -2 -2 1 5 4
Expected demand -5 0 1 4 1
Past employment 1 5 5 3 7
Expected employment 1 7 4 9 6
General outlook -8 -2 -3 -4 0
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 108 102 103 99
Past activity 6 5 5 4 3
Expected activity 5 18 11 9 2
Expected demand 3 13 4 10 0
Past employment 9 -10 -21 -13 -6
Expected employment 8 18 -8 -5 -9
General outlook -4 7 3 4 3
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The climate is stable in information-communication

In information-communication, the business climate is stable (102), above its average. The increase in the balances of opinion on past activity and on expected employment is offset by the decrease in those on general outlook, on expected activity and on expected demand. Except those on employment, the balances are above their average.

The business climate remains gloomy in real estate activities

In real estate activities, the climate has slightly fallen back to 95, still below its average level. The balances on expected activity and on expected employment have declined. In contrast, the balances on past activity, on expected demand and on general outlook have strengthened.

In professional activities, the climate has weakened a little

The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has lost one point (106) but stands well above its long-term average. The balances on past and expected activity, on expected demand and on expected employment have declined. The balance on past activity has even reached its lowest level since May 2016. However, only this balance has fallen below its average, the other balances standing above their own.

The climate has clouded over in administrative and support service activities

In administrative and support service activities, the climate has lost four points. At 99, it has fallen below its average level for the first time since October 2015. All balances of opinion have decreased, except that on past employment. Especially, those on expected activity and on expected demand have sharply worsened. Only the balance on general outlook remains above its average.

Encadré

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 26 March 2019 at 8:45 am

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 26 March 2019 at 8:45 am


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