21 February 2019

2019- n° 44

In January 2019, consumer prices fell by 0.4% over one month and rose by 1.2% year on year Consumer price index - final results - January 2019

In January 2019, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell back by 0.4% over a month, after a stability in December. The prices of manufactured products sharply dropped, due to the beginning of winter sales (−2.1% after −0.2%) and those of services slowed down (+0.2% after +0.4%). Food prices were also a little less dynamic than in the previous month (+0.5% after +0.6%). Contrariwise, energy prices dropped less sharply than in December (−1.2% after −2.4%), in the wake of petroleum prices. At least, tobacco prices rose by 0.8% after a stability in December.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices recovered by 0.2% over a month, after a 0.1% drop in December.

Year on year, consumer prices slowed down for the third consecutive month: +1.2% in January after +1.6% in December. This drop in inflation came from a year-on-year slowdown in energy. Contrariwise, services, food and tobacco prices accelerated. At least, those in manufactured products fell barely less than in the previous month.

Year on year, core inflation was unchanged: +0.7%, as in the two previous months. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) edged down over a month (−0.6% after +0.1% in December); year on year, it grew by 1.4%, after +1.9% in the previous month.

Energy inflation sharply fell in January 2019 (+1.9% year on year after +8.0% in December and +11.2% in November). This drop was due to a pronounced slowdown in petroleum products prices (+0.2% year on year after +9.5%): over a month, they fell by 1.9%, while in January 2018, they rose by 7.1% after an increase in petroleum prices and in energy taxation. Gas prices also slowed down in January 2019 (+12.7% year on year after +22.5%).

Year on year, services prices rose by 1.0% in January 2019, after +0.9% in the previous month. Health services prices recovered by 0.2% year on year, after a 0.4% downturn in December, partly due to a rebound in the prices of medical analysis laboratories after a temporary drop in December. The drop in communication services was attenuated (−3.1% after −3.5%) in the wake of telecommunication prices (-3.9% after -4.2%) whereas those of postal services rose by 6.9% after a sharp riseof fees in January. Transport prices edged down (−0.1% after +0.5%), essentially those in airfares (−1.0% after +0.9%).

Year on year, the fall in manufactured product prices dropped barely less than in January (−0.4% after −0.5%). This lesser drop came from a rebound in the prices of clothing and footwear (+0.5% year on year after −0.3%), the monthly downturn due to the sales being less pronounced this year. Health product prices fell a little less than in the previous month (−2.8% after −3.0%). Contrariwise, the prices of “other manufactured products” edged down by 0.1% after a stability in December. The drop in the prices in information processing equipmentwas accentuated (−5.6% after −4.1%) and the new car prices slowed down (+1.4% after +1.9%).

In January 2019, food prices gathered pace again: +2.7% year on year after +2.5% in the previous month. Those in fresh products were more dynamic (+8.4% year on year after +7.8%): the prices in fresh vegetables (+13.0% after +11.4%) and in fresh fish (+5.5% after +4.4%) rose more, while those in fresh fruits slowed down (+3.6% after +4.2%). Excluding fresh products, food prices also increaseda little more than in the previous month (+1.7% after +1.6%), due to higher prices in meat (+1.6% after +1.3%), oils and fats (+6.7% after +5.8%) and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.2% after +2.1%)

Compared with the provisional estimates published on January 31, 2019, the month-on-month change in the CPI was up by 0.1point and this year-on-year unchanged. The month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the HICP are confirmed.