Insee conjoncture
21 février 2019
N° 2019-44

In January 2019, consumer prices fell by 0.4% over one month and rose by 1.2% year on yearConsumer price index - final results - January 2019

Informations rapides
No 44
Paru le : 21/02/2019
Prochaine parution le : 11/04/2019 at 08:45 - March 2019

Monthly change: −0.4% in January ; Year-on-year change: +1.2%

In January 2019, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell back by 0.4% over a month, after a stability in December. The prices of manufactured products sharply dropped, due to the beginning of winter sales (−2.1% after −0.2%) and those of services slowed down (+0.2% after +0.4%). Food prices were also a little less dynamic than in the previous month (+0.5% after +0.6%). Contrariwise, energy prices dropped less sharply than in December (−1.2% after −2.4%), in the wake of petroleum prices. At least, tobacco prices rose by 0.8% after a stability in December.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices recovered by 0.2% over a month, after a 0.1% drop in December.

Year on year, consumer prices slowed down for the third consecutive month: +1.2% in January after +1.6% in December. This drop in inflation came from a year-on-year slowdown in energy. Contrariwise, services, food and tobacco prices accelerated. At least, those in manufactured products fell barely less than in the previous month.

Stability in core inflation year on year

Year on year, core inflation was unchanged: +0.7%, as in the two previous months. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) edged down over a month (−0.6% after +0.1% in December); year on year, it grew by 1.4%, after +1.9% in the previous month.

Consumer Price Index (CPI), core inflation (ISJ) and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) year-on-year changes

Consumer Price Index (CPI), core inflation (ISJ) and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) year-on-year changes ()
HICP ISJ CPI
2014-01 0.8 0.2 0.6
2014-02 1.1 0.8 0.9
2014-03 0.8 0.5 0.6
2014-04 0.8 0.5 0.7
2014-05 0.8 0.3 0.7
2014-06 0.6 0.1 0.5
2014-07 0.6 0.1 0.5
2014-08 0.5 0.3 0.4
2014-09 0.4 0.1 0.3
2014-10 0.5 0.0 0.5
2014-11 0.4 -0.2 0.3
2014-12 0.1 -0.1 0.1
2015-01 -0.4 0.1 -0.4
2015-02 -0.3 0.2 -0.3
2015-03 0.0 0.2 -0.1
2015-04 0.1 0.4 0.1
2015-05 0.3 0.5 0.3
2015-06 0.3 0.5 0.3
2015-07 0.2 0.6 0.2
2015-08 0.1 0.5 0.0
2015-09 0.1 0.6 0.0
2015-10 0.2 0.8 0.1
2015-11 0.1 0.9 0.0
2015-12 0.3 0.9 0.2
2016-01 0.3 0.9 0.2
2016-02 -0.1 0.8 -0.2
2016-03 -0.1 0.7 -0.1
2016-04 -0.1 0.6 -0.2
2016-05 0.1 0.6 0.0
2016-06 0.3 0.7 0.2
2016-07 0.4 0.5 0.2
2016-08 0.4 0.4 0.2
2016-09 0.5 0.7 0.4
2016-10 0.5 0.5 0.4
2016-11 0.7 0.6 0.5
2016-12 0.8 0.4 0.6
2017-01 1.6 0.6 1.3
2017-02 1.4 0.2 1.2
2017-03 1.4 0.3 1.1
2017-04 1.4 0.4 1.2
2017-05 0.9 0.3 0.8
2017-06 0.8 0.4 0.7
2017-07 0.8 0.5 0.7
2017-08 1.0 0.4 0.9
2017-09 1.1 0.4 1.0
2017-10 1.2 0.4 1.1
2017-11 1.2 0.5 1.2
2017-12 1.2 0.5 1.2
2018-01 1.5 0.9 1.3
2018-02 1.3 0.9 1.2
2018-03 1.7 0.9 1.6
2018-04 1.8 0.9 1.6
2018-05 2.3 1.0 2.0
2018-06 2.3 0.8 2.0
2018-07 2.6 0.9 2.3
2018-08 2.6 0.9 2.3
2018-09 2.5 0.7 2.2
2018-10 2.5 0.8 2.2
2018-11 2.2 0.7 1.9
2018-12 1.9 0.7 1.6
2019-01 1.4 0.7 1.2

Consumer Price Index (CPI), core inflation (ISJ) and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) year-on-year changes

Sharp slowdown in energy prices year on year

Energy inflation sharply fell in January 2019 (+1.9% year on year after +8.0% in December and +11.2% in November). This drop was due to a pronounced slowdown in petroleum products prices (+0.2% year on year after +9.5%): over a month, they fell by 1.9%, while in January 2018, they rose by 7.1% after an increase in petroleum prices and in energy taxation. Gas prices also slowed down in January 2019 (+12.7% year on year after +22.5%).

Detailed figures for various groups

2015:100
Detailed figures for various groups (2015:100)
Items Weight Index Percentage change
2019 Jan. 2019 m-on-m change (2) y-on-y change (3)
a) All households
Overall 10000 103.01 -0.4 1.2
Overall SA(1) 10000 103.69 0.2 1.3
Food 1619 105.23 0.5 2.7
Fresh food 244 118.67 2.4 8.4
Other food 1375 103.06 0.2 1.7
Tobacco 191 120.77 0.8 14.0
Manufactured products 2556 97.13 -2.1 -0.4
Clothing and footwear 400 93.03 -11.3 0.5
Medical products 416 91.24 -0.2 -2.8
Other manufactured products 1740 99.42 -0.4 -0.1
Energy 804 112.35 -1.2 1.9
Petroleum products 425 115.84 -1.9 0.2
Services 4830 103.37 0.2 1.0
Actual rentals and services for dwellings 746 101.07 0.0 -0.4
Health services 604 102.60 0.5 0.2
Transport 285 97.14 -5.2 -0.1
Communication 219 95.63 0.8 -3.1
Other services 2976 105.37 0.6 1.9
Total except rents and tobacco 9208 102.86 -0.5 1.1
Total except tobacco 9809 102.67 -0.5 1.0
b) Urban working-class households or households of employees
All products excluding tobacco 9707 102.36 -0.5 0.8
c) Households that belong to the lowest equivalized disposable income quintile - France
All products excluding tobacco 9700 102.20 -0.7 0.8
  • (1) seasonally adjusted
  • (2) : [m/(m-1)]
  • (3) : [m/(m-12)]
  • Champ : France hors Mayotte
  • Source : Insee - indices des prix à la consommation

Slight acceleration in services prices year on year

Year on year, services prices rose by 1.0% in January 2019, after +0.9% in the previous month. Health services prices recovered by 0.2% year on year, after a 0.4% downturn in December, partly due to a rebound in the prices of medical analysis laboratories after a temporary drop in December. The drop in communication services was attenuated (−3.1% after −3.5%) in the wake of telecommunication prices (-3.9% after -4.2%) whereas those of postal services rose by 6.9% after a sharp riseof fees in January. Transport prices edged down (−0.1% after +0.5%), essentially those in airfares (−1.0% after +0.9%).

Year on year, the fall in manufactured product prices dropped barely less than in January (−0.4% after −0.5%). This lesser drop came from a rebound in the prices of clothing and footwear (+0.5% year on year after −0.3%), the monthly downturn due to the sales being less pronounced this year. Health product prices fell a little less than in the previous month (−2.8% after −3.0%). Contrariwise, the prices of “other manufactured products” edged down by 0.1% after a stability in December. The drop in the prices in information processing equipmentwas accentuated (−5.6% after −4.1%) and the new car prices slowed down (+1.4% after +1.9%).

Acceleration in food prices year on year

In January 2019, food prices gathered pace again: +2.7% year on year after +2.5% in the previous month. Those in fresh products were more dynamic (+8.4% year on year after +7.8%): the prices in fresh vegetables (+13.0% after +11.4%) and in fresh fish (+5.5% after +4.4%) rose more, while those in fresh fruits slowed down (+3.6% after +4.2%). Excluding fresh products, food prices also increaseda little more than in the previous month (+1.7% after +1.6%), due to higher prices in meat (+1.6% after +1.3%), oils and fats (+6.7% after +5.8%) and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.2% after +2.1%)

Detailed figures for Core inflation and HICP

2015:100
Detailed figures for Core inflation and HICP (2015:100)
Items Weight Index Percentage change
2019 Jan. 2019 m-on-m change (1) y-on-y change (2)
Core inflation - All items 6048 102.52 0.5 0.7
Food excluding fresh products. meat. milk and exotic products 740 102.35 0.3 1.4
Manufactured products 2091 99.97 0.3 0.1
Services including actual rentals and services for dwellings 3217 103.97 0.4 1.0
HICP - All items 10000 103.52 -0.6 1.4
  • (1) : [m/(m-1)]
  • (2) : [m/(m-12)]
  • Source: INSEE - Consumer Price Indices

Revisions

Compared with the provisional estimates published on January 31, 2019, the month-on-month change in the CPI was up by 0.1point and this year-on-year unchanged. The month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the HICP are confirmed.

Encadré

For more information

Next publication of provisional results : 28 March 2019, 8.45 am

Next publication of final results : 14 March 2019, 8.45 am


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