Insee conjoncture
14 février 2019
N° 2019-36

The unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 in Q4 2018ILO Unemployment and Labour Market-related indicators (Labour Force Survey results) - fourth quarter 2018

On average in Q4 2018, the average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and the overseas departments (excluding Mayotte) stood at 8.8% of the labour force, its lowest level since early 2009. It decreased by 0.3 percentage points quarter on quarter, after being stable in Q3 2018.

In metropolitan France, the number of unemployed decreased by 90,000 in Q4 2018 to 2.5 million people; the unemployment rate stood at 8.5 % of the labour force. The unemployment rate strongly decreased among youths (-1.7 points). It also decreased for persons aged 25 to 49 (-0.2 points) and was stable for those aged 50 and over.

Informations rapides
No 36
Paru le : 14/02/2019
Prochaine parution le : 16/05/2019 at 07:30 - first quarter 2019

The unemployment rate in France decreased by 0.3 points at 8.8% of active population at the end of 2018

On average in Q4 2018, the average ILO unemployment rate in metropolitan France and the overseas departments (excluding Mayotte) stood at 8.8% of the labour force, its lowest level since early 2009. It decreased by 0.3 percentage points quarter on quarter, after being stable in Q3 2018.

In metropolitan France, the number of unemployed decreased by 90,000 in Q4 2018 to 2.5 million people; the unemployment rate stood at 8.5 % of the labour force. The unemployment rate strongly decreased among youths (-1.7 points). It also decreased for persons aged 25 to 49 (-0.2 points) and was stable for those aged 50 and over.

Over a year, the unemployment rate in metropolitan France decreased by 0.1 points, but fell markedly among youth (-1.8 points), in particular among young men (-2.8 points).

Long-term unemployment was stable

Among the unemployed, 990 thousands declared that they had been seeking a job for at least one year. The long-term unemployment rate stood at 3.4% of the labour force in Q4 2018, as in the previous quarter. This rate decreased by 0.3 points over a year.

ILO-unemployment rate

ILO-unemployment rate
France (excl. Mayotte) Metropolitan France
2003-Q1 8.3 8.0
2003-Q2 8.5 8.1
2003-Q3 8.4 8.0
2003-Q4 8.8 8.4
2004-Q1 9.0 8.6
2004-Q2 8.8 8.4
2004-Q3 8.9 8.5
2004-Q4 8.9 8.5
2005-Q1 8.7 8.3
2005-Q2 8.8 8.4
2005-Q3 9.0 8.6
2005-Q4 9.0 8.7
2006-Q1 9.1 8.7
2006-Q2 8.9 8.6
2006-Q3 8.8 8.5
2006-Q4 8.4 8.0
2007-Q1 8.4 8.1
2007-Q2 8.1 7.8
2007-Q3 7.9 7.6
2007-Q4 7.5 7.1
2008-Q1 7.2 6.8
2008-Q2 7.3 7.0
2008-Q3 7.4 7.1
2008-Q4 7.8 7.4
2009-Q1 8.6 8.2
2009-Q2 9.2 8.8
2009-Q3 9.2 8.8
2009-Q4 9.5 9.1
2010-Q1 9.4 9.0
2010-Q2 9.3 8.9
2010-Q3 9.2 8.8
2010-Q4 9.2 8.8
2011-Q1 9.1 8.8
2011-Q2 9.1 8.7
2011-Q3 9.2 8.8
2011-Q4 9.3 9.0
2012-Q1 9.5 9.1
2012-Q2 9.7 9.3
2012-Q3 9.8 9.4
2012-Q4 10.1 9.7
2013-Q1 10.3 9.9
2013-Q2 10.4 10.1
2013-Q3 10.3 9.9
2013-Q4 10.1 9.8
2014-Q1 10.2 9.8
2014-Q2 10.2 9.8
2014-Q3 10.3 9.9
2014-Q4 10.4 10.1
2015-Q1 10.3 10.0
2015-Q2 10.5 10.2
2015-Q3 10.4 10.1
2015-Q4 10.2 9.9
2016-Q1 10.2 9.9
2016-Q2 10.0 9.7
2016-Q3 10.0 9.7
2016-Q4 10.0 9.7
2017-Q1 9.6 9.3
2017-Q2 9.4 9.1
2017-Q3 9.6 9.3
2017-Q4 9.0 8.6
2018-Q1 9.2 8.9
2018-Q2 9.1 8.7
2018-Q3 9.1 8.8
2018-Q4 8.8 8.5
  • Estimation within +/-0.3 point of the level of unemployment rate and of its quarterly variations.

ILO-unemployment rate

ILO-unemployment rate in metropolitan France

Seasonally adjusted, average over quarter
ILO-unemployment rate in metropolitan France (Seasonally adjusted, average over quarter)
ILO-unemployment rate (%) Variation in points over Thousands
2018Q3 2018Q4 (p) quarter year 2018Q4 (p)
Unemployed persons 8.8 8.5 -0.3 -0.1 2,468
  15-24 years 20.5 18.8 -1.7 -1.8 532
  25-49 years 8.2 8.0 -0.2 0.0 1,412
  50 years and more 6.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 524
Men 8.9 8.4 -0.5 -0.4 1,268
  15-24 years 22.2 18.6 -3.6 -2.8 289
  25-49 years 7.9 7.9 0.0 0.1 717
  50 years and more 6.2 6.0 -0.2 -0.6 262
Women 8.7 8.5 -0.2 0.1 1,200
  15-24 years 18.5 19.0 0.5 -0.7 243
  25-49 years 8.6 8.1 -0.5 0.0 695
  50 years and more 6.0 6.2 0.2 0.5 262
Long-term unemployed persons 3.4 3.4 0.0 -0.2 986
  • (p) = provisional results
  • Scope : population of people living in households, people aged 15 years or more in metropolitan France
  • Source: INSEE, Labour Force Survey

In metropolitan France, among inactive people as defined by the ILO, 1.5 million persons wished to work without being considered as unemployed according to the ILO definition: they made up the halo of unemployment. Their number increased by 32,000 over a quarter and by 5,000 over a year. It nearly reached the level of the end of 2017 (+ 5,000 over a year).

People in the halo of unemployment

People in the halo of unemployment
People in the halo of unemployment
2003-Q1 1165
2003-Q2 1115
2003-Q3 1197
2003-Q4 1200
2004-Q1 1215
2004-Q2 1228
2004-Q3 1236
2004-Q4 1207
2005-Q1 1184
2005-Q2 1186
2005-Q3 1162
2005-Q4 1165
2006-Q1 1191
2006-Q2 1194
2006-Q3 1180
2006-Q4 1240
2007-Q1 1174
2007-Q2 1192
2007-Q3 1122
2007-Q4 1130
2008-Q1 1152
2008-Q2 1118
2008-Q3 1153
2008-Q4 1136
2009-Q1 1175
2009-Q2 1198
2009-Q3 1229
2009-Q4 1254
2010-Q1 1220
2010-Q2 1247
2010-Q3 1232
2010-Q4 1218
2011-Q1 1271
2011-Q2 1290
2011-Q3 1301
2011-Q4 1299
2012-Q1 1287
2012-Q2 1261
2012-Q3 1307
2012-Q4 1290
2013-Q1 1261
2013-Q2 1274
2013-Q3 1308
2013-Q4 1333
2014-Q1 1372
2014-Q2 1331
2014-Q3 1409
2014-Q4 1417
2015-Q1 1466
2015-Q2 1436
2015-Q3 1400
2015-Q4 1414
2016-Q1 1434
2016-Q2 1478
2016-Q3 1475
2016-Q4 1478
2017-Q1 1488
2017-Q2 1482
2017-Q3 1418
2017-Q4 1494
2018-Q1 1477
2018-Q2 1458
2018-Q3 1467
2018-Q4 1499

People in the halo of unemployment

The young men’s employment rate strongly increased

The employment rate of the population aged 15-64 years rose again (+0.2 points) in Q4 2018. It stood at 66.1%, its highest level since the early 1980s. It increased by 0.4 percentage points year on year. Over the quarter, it went up among every age groups. The highest rise was among men aged 15 to 24 (+0.9 points over a quarter and +1.8 points over a year). Their employment rate reached a peak at 33.8 %, its highest level since the the end of 2010.

Employment rate by age group

Employment rate by age group
15-24 years old (right scale) 25-49 years old (left scale) 50-64 years old (left scale)
2003-Q1 32.0 81.2 53.7
2003-Q2 31.1 81.1 53.4
2003-Q3 31.0 81.2 53.1
2003-Q4 30.5 81.2 53.2
2004-Q1 30.7 81.1 53.3
2004-Q2 30.4 81.4 53.3
2004-Q3 30.8 81.1 53.8
2004-Q4 30.6 81.1 54.0
2005-Q1 30.0 81.3 54.2
2005-Q2 31.1 81.1 54.0
2005-Q3 30.0 81.4 53.5
2005-Q4 30.3 81.3 53.1
2006-Q1 29.6 81.4 53.4
2006-Q2 29.9 81.4 53.1
2006-Q3 30.3 81.9 53.2
2006-Q4 30.0 82.1 53.5
2007-Q1 30.4 82.1 53.2
2007-Q2 30.7 82.4 53.4
2007-Q3 31.6 82.5 53.3
2007-Q4 31.9 83.1 53.2
2008-Q1 32.0 83.6 53.1
2008-Q2 31.3 83.8 53.0
2008-Q3 31.3 83.6 53.1
2008-Q4 31.2 83.6 53.6
2009-Q1 31.1 82.7 53.6
2009-Q2 30.7 82.4 53.8
2009-Q3 30.2 82.3 53.3
2009-Q4 30.0 82.0 53.2
2010-Q1 30.6 82.2 53.7
2010-Q2 30.3 82.1 53.9
2010-Q3 29.6 82.2 54.3
2010-Q4 30.2 81.9 54.1
2011-Q1 29.6 82.0 54.3
2011-Q2 30.0 81.8 54.4
2011-Q3 29.7 81.4 54.9
2011-Q4 29.1 81.3 55.6
2012-Q1 28.9 81.1 56.2
2012-Q2 28.7 81.0 56.7
2012-Q3 28.4 80.9 57.1
2012-Q4 28.3 80.9 57.7
2013-Q1 28.4 80.5 57.4
2013-Q2 28.3 80.7 57.4
2013-Q3 28.4 80.9 57.7
2013-Q4 28.6 80.7 57.8
2014-Q1 28.5 80.6 58.2
2014-Q2 28.2 80.4 58.6
2014-Q3 28.0 80.1 58.8
2014-Q4 27.7 80.1 59.2
2015-Q1 28.3 79.8 59.4
2015-Q2 28.2 79.8 59.7
2015-Q3 28.5 79.9 59.9
2015-Q4 28.4 80.1 59.9
2016-Q1 28.3 80.2 60.4
2016-Q2 28.6 80.2 60.5
2016-Q3 27.7 80.4 60.6
2016-Q4 28.4 80.1 60.8
2017-Q1 28.7 80.2 60.8
2017-Q2 28.9 80.9 61.7
2017-Q3 29.2 80.6 61.3
2017-Q4 29.7 81.0 62.1
2018-Q1 29.9 81.0 62.3
2018-Q2 30.0 81.2 62.3
2018-Q3 30.5 81.1 62.4
2018-Q4 31.0 81.3 62.5

Employment rate by age group

ILO employment rate in the population aged 15-64 years

Seasonally adjusted, average over quarter
ILO employment rate in the population aged 15-64 years (Seasonally adjusted, average over quarter)
% of people in the age group Variation in over
2018Q3 2018Q4 (p) quarter year
Employed people 65.9 66.1 0.2 0.4
by sex
Men 69.3 69.5 0.2 0.2
Women 62.5 62.8 0.3 0.6
by age
15-24 years 30.5 31.0 0.5 1.3
25-49 years 81.1 81.3 0.2 0.3
50-64 years 62.4 62.5 0.1 0.4
Included : 55-64 years 52.3 52.7 0.4 0.5
by type of employment contract
Permanent employment 49.4 49.5 0.1 0.4
Fixed-term and temporary employment 7.7 7.7 0.0 -0.4
by contractual working time
Full-time employment 54.1 54.4 0.3 0.5
Part-time employment 11.7 11.7 0.0 -0.1
Full-time equivalent employment rate 61.2 61.3 0.1 0.5
  • (p) = provisional results
  • Scope: population of people living in households in metropolitan France, people aged 15-64 years
  • Source: INSEE, Labour Force Survey

Full-time employment advanced, part-time employment remains stable

Full-time employment rate stood at 54.4% in Q4 2018. It increased by 0.3 points over a quarter and 0.5 points over a year, reaching its highest level since 2003 (beginning of the quarterly series). Part-time employment rate was stable at 11.7%. It fell by 0.1 percentage points compared to Q4 2017.

Underemployment recovered slightly

In Q4 2018, 5.8% of the employed persons were underemployed. It mainly concerns people having a part-time job and wishing to work more. This share decreased by 0.2 points compared to Q3 2018, after a similar rise in the previous quarter.

The activity rate went up sharply among persons aged 55-64 years

The activity rate of people aged 15-64 was stable at 72.3% in Q4 2018. It increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q4 2017. Quarter-on-quarter, it was virtually stable among youths and persons aged 25 to 49, but increased sharply among persons aged 55 to 64 (+0.5 points over a quarter and +0.9 points over a year), particularly among women.

ILO activity rate in the population aged 15-64 years

Seasonally adjusted, average over quarter
ILO activity rate in the population aged 15-64 years (Seasonally adjusted, average over quarter)
% of people in the age group Variation in points over
2018Q3 2018Q4 (p) quarter year
Active people 72.3 72.3 0.0 0.3
by sex
Men 76.2 76.0 -0.2 -0.1
Women 68.6 68.7 0.1 0.7
by age
15-24 years 38.3 38.2 -0.1 0.8
25-49 years 88.3 88.4 0.1 0.4
50-64 years 66.6 66.7 0.1 0.4
Included : 55-64 years 56.0 56.5 0.5 0.9
  • (p) = provisional results
  • Scope: population of people living in households in metropolitan France, people aged 15-64 years
  • Source: INSEE, Labour Force Survey

Revisions

Compared to the provisional estimate published on 20November 2018, ILO unemployment rate in Q3 2018 stays unchanged. For Q2 2018, it has been downgraded by 0.1 percentage points in metropolitan France (from 8.8% to 8.7%), due to seasonal adjustment coefficients recalculation.

Encadré

For more information

An unemployed person according to the International Labour Office (ILO) is someone of working age (15 years or more) who did not work, even one hour, during the reference week, is available to work within two weeks and looked actively for a job in the previous month (or has found a job begining in less than three months).  

Next issue: 16May 2019 at 07.30 am


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