Insee conjoncture
23 janvier 2019
N° 2019-14

In January 2019, the French business climate and the employment climate are stableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - January 2019

In January 2019, the business climate is stable after worsening sharply in the previous month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, remains at 102, slightly above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has lost five points in wholesale trade and one point in building construction. It has increased by one point in services. It is stable in manufacturing industry and retail trade. In both kinds of trade, the business climate is just below its long-term mean; it remains above in the other sectors.

Informations rapides
No 14
Paru le : 23/01/2019
Prochaine parution le : 22/02/2019 at 08:45 - February 2019

The French business climate is stable above its long-term mean

In January 2019, the business climate is stable after worsening sharply in the previous month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, remains at 102, slightly above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has lost five points in wholesale trade and one point in building construction. It has increased by one point in services. It is stable in manufacturing industry and retail trade. In both kinds of trade, the business climate is just below its long-term mean; it remains above in the other sectors.

Graph 1French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.5
1998-02 109.8
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.8
1998-05 111.9
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.3
1998-08 111.7
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.1
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 102.4
1999-02 102.6
1999-03 100.8
1999-04 101.8
1999-05 103.4
1999-06 102.7
1999-07 107.8
1999-08 110.6
1999-09 113.8
1999-10 115.4
1999-11 117.0
1999-12 118.5
2000-01 115.4
2000-02 115.8
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.4
2000-05 115.7
2000-06 117.8
2000-07 117.2
2000-08 117.9
2000-09 118.1
2000-10 116.4
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.5
2001-01 112.6
2001-02 112.5
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.5
2001-05 105.3
2001-06 104.4
2001-07 102.1
2001-08 100.6
2001-09 98.9
2001-10 93.9
2001-11 93.9
2001-12 94.7
2002-01 95.7
2002-02 96.3
2002-03 98.3
2002-04 101.3
2002-05 102.6
2002-06 101.6
2002-07 98.8
2002-08 98.1
2002-09 97.1
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 97.0
2002-12 99.7
2003-01 96.1
2003-02 95.3
2003-03 90.0
2003-04 87.6
2003-05 91.8
2003-06 91.8
2003-07 94.3
2003-08 95.2
2003-09 95.2
2003-10 96.2
2003-11 100.1
2003-12 101.4
2004-01 105.7
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 106.1
2004-05 106.0
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.8
2004-08 106.9
2004-09 106.7
2004-10 107.9
2004-11 105.5
2004-12 106.9
2005-01 106.4
2005-02 106.5
2005-03 106.0
2005-04 105.4
2005-05 103.1
2005-06 104.3
2005-07 105.0
2005-08 104.8
2005-09 104.0
2005-10 106.9
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.3
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.3
2006-05 110.0
2006-06 109.4
2006-07 111.1
2006-08 111.4
2006-09 111.8
2006-10 111.7
2006-11 112.7
2006-12 111.3
2007-01 111.1
2007-02 112.8
2007-03 113.3
2007-04 113.9
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.4
2007-09 112.7
2007-10 112.0
2007-11 112.2
2007-12 111.7
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 109.3
2008-03 108.9
2008-04 106.2
2008-05 103.4
2008-06 100.4
2008-07 96.1
2008-08 94.8
2008-09 92.1
2008-10 83.3
2008-11 79.7
2008-12 75.6
2009-01 73.8
2009-02 71.2
2009-03 68.1
2009-04 69.0
2009-05 72.6
2009-06 75.5
2009-07 77.5
2009-08 81.4
2009-09 84.9
2009-10 87.6
2009-11 89.8
2009-12 90.5
2010-01 92.6
2010-02 93.2
2010-03 92.7
2010-04 97.1
2010-05 98.4
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 100.0
2010-08 102.5
2010-09 104.0
2010-10 104.9
2010-11 105.1
2010-12 106.9
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.6
2011-03 109.7
2011-04 109.6
2011-05 108.4
2011-06 108.8
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.3
2011-09 98.2
2011-10 96.7
2011-11 94.7
2011-12 93.2
2012-01 92.5
2012-02 92.3
2012-03 94.8
2012-04 95.3
2012-05 91.9
2012-06 90.8
2012-07 88.6
2012-08 88.1
2012-09 86.7
2012-10 84.5
2012-11 86.3
2012-12 86.9
2013-01 86.9
2013-02 86.9
2013-03 85.2
2013-04 83.6
2013-05 84.8
2013-06 85.9
2013-07 87.5
2013-08 90.6
2013-09 94.1
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.9
2013-12 92.7
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.2
2014-03 94.7
2014-04 94.5
2014-05 94.2
2014-06 93.1
2014-07 92.5
2014-08 91.1
2014-09 90.5
2014-10 90.6
2014-11 92.6
2014-12 92.6
2015-01 92.9
2015-02 93.7
2015-03 95.0
2015-04 96.0
2015-05 97.0
2015-06 97.9
2015-07 98.3
2015-08 99.7
2015-09 99.7
2015-10 100.6
2015-11 100.9
2015-12 99.3
2016-01 101.1
2016-02 100.2
2016-03 100.5
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.2
2016-06 100.4
2016-07 101.2
2016-08 100.6
2016-09 101.2
2016-10 101.3
2016-11 101.8
2016-12 103.9
2017-01 103.5
2017-02 104.1
2017-03 104.3
2017-04 104.5
2017-05 105.3
2017-06 106.6
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.4
2017-09 109.2
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 110.5
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 110.4
2018-02 109.5
2018-03 109.5
2018-04 108.8
2018-05 106.8
2018-06 106.6
2018-07 106.1
2018-08 105.3
2018-09 105.5
2018-10 103.8
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 101.9
2019-01 102.1

Graph 1French business climate composite indicator

figure2Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Sep. 18 Oct. 18 Nov. 18 Dec. 18 Jan 19
Business climates
France 106 104 105 102 102
Manufacturing 107 104 105 103 103
Building 108 108 109 110 109
Services 105 103 104 102 103
Retail trade 109 105 107 99 99
Wholesale trade 104 - 104 - 99
Employment climate
Employment 108 107 105 104 104
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is stable at a relatively high level

In January 2019, the employment climate is stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 104, above its long-term average. The increase in the balance of opinion on expected workforce size in the service sector excluding temporary work agencies is offset by decreases in some balances of opinion in other sectors.

Graph 2French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 102.0
1998-02 103.8
1998-03 105.8
1998-04 107.6
1998-05 108.1
1998-06 109.2
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.6
1998-09 106.8
1998-10 105.8
1998-11 105.5
1998-12 104.8
1999-01 104.1
1999-02 105.5
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.6
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.9
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.1
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.3
2000-02 117.3
2000-03 115.3
2000-04 113.3
2000-05 117.1
2000-06 121.0
2000-07 117.9
2000-08 119.6
2000-09 120.6
2000-10 120.3
2000-11 122.2
2000-12 120.9
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.9
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 118.1
2001-05 113.5
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.8
2001-08 108.1
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.4
2001-11 102.4
2001-12 105.4
2002-01 103.6
2002-02 101.5
2002-03 103.3
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.7
2002-06 103.1
2002-07 104.1
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 97.9
2002-10 94.2
2002-11 97.6
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.3
2003-02 95.8
2003-03 92.3
2003-04 90.8
2003-05 90.0
2003-06 92.1
2003-07 93.4
2003-08 93.8
2003-09 93.8
2003-10 94.7
2003-11 93.4
2003-12 96.4
2004-01 98.9
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.4
2004-04 101.2
2004-05 103.7
2004-06 100.8
2004-07 101.9
2004-08 101.9
2004-09 101.7
2004-10 102.9
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 101.9
2005-01 101.7
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 105.1
2005-04 101.9
2005-05 102.6
2005-06 102.3
2005-07 103.2
2005-08 103.8
2005-09 104.2
2005-10 104.5
2005-11 104.0
2005-12 103.1
2006-01 104.2
2006-02 104.4
2006-03 104.4
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.7
2006-06 110.5
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.5
2006-09 108.4
2006-10 108.7
2006-11 111.4
2006-12 112.1
2007-01 110.2
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.8
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.0
2007-06 113.3
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 112.9
2007-09 114.0
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 113.5
2007-12 115.7
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 115.1
2008-03 113.6
2008-04 114.0
2008-05 108.9
2008-06 105.1
2008-07 105.5
2008-08 100.9
2008-09 99.6
2008-10 94.6
2008-11 87.6
2008-12 81.8
2009-01 79.3
2009-02 78.3
2009-03 71.5
2009-04 72.1
2009-05 70.9
2009-06 72.1
2009-07 76.2
2009-08 81.1
2009-09 80.6
2009-10 82.6
2009-11 84.5
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 88.8
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.1
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 98.0
2010-07 98.5
2010-08 98.7
2010-09 100.3
2010-10 103.0
2010-11 104.5
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.5
2011-02 110.2
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.7
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.6
2011-07 109.6
2011-08 105.1
2011-09 103.4
2011-10 100.4
2011-11 100.3
2011-12 98.8
2012-01 97.1
2012-02 97.1
2012-03 98.7
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 94.8
2012-06 92.8
2012-07 91.2
2012-08 92.5
2012-09 90.4
2012-10 90.2
2012-11 89.2
2012-12 88.9
2013-01 91.9
2013-02 88.0
2013-03 87.0
2013-04 84.8
2013-05 85.5
2013-06 87.8
2013-07 89.1
2013-08 89.0
2013-09 91.3
2013-10 93.2
2013-11 92.4
2013-12 94.4
2014-01 94.8
2014-02 94.1
2014-03 94.9
2014-04 97.9
2014-05 96.4
2014-06 94.8
2014-07 95.2
2014-08 93.8
2014-09 94.3
2014-10 94.1
2014-11 94.2
2014-12 94.4
2015-01 93.2
2015-02 95.5
2015-03 94.8
2015-04 96.9
2015-05 97.1
2015-06 99.0
2015-07 99.5
2015-08 100.3
2015-09 100.3
2015-10 100.5
2015-11 101.9
2015-12 100.7
2016-01 102.2
2016-02 100.7
2016-03 100.1
2016-04 100.6
2016-05 102.6
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.2
2016-09 105.1
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 104.9
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.6
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 108.1
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.3
2017-06 108.3
2017-07 107.6
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 107.2
2017-10 108.6
2017-11 108.6
2017-12 108.6
2018-01 109.2
2018-02 109.9
2018-03 110.1
2018-04 108.4
2018-05 108.4
2018-06 110.2
2018-07 107.8
2018-08 106.8
2018-09 107.5
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 104.8
2018-12 103.9
2019-01 104.3

Graph 2French employment climate composite indicator

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

figure4Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Sep. 18 Oct. 18 Nov. 18 Dec. 18 Jan 19
France 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7
Manufacturing 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3
Building 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2
Services 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3
Wholesale trade -0.1 - 0.4 - -0.4
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph 3Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
1998-01 0.97
1998-02 0.99
1998-03 1.0
1998-04 0.92
1998-05 0.82
1998-06 0.75
1998-07 0.68
1998-08 0.62
1998-09 0.56
1998-10 -0.9
1998-11 -0.83
1998-12 -0.9
1999-01 -0.73
1999-02 0.05
1999-03 0.57
1999-04 0.75
1999-05 0.97
1999-06 0.96
1999-07 1.0
1999-08 1.0
1999-09 1.0
1999-10 0.99
1999-11 0.89
1999-12 0.8
2000-01 0.72
2000-02 0.74
2000-03 0.98
2000-04 1.0
2000-05 0.95
2000-06 1.0
2000-07 0.91
2000-08 0.81
2000-09 0.74
2000-10 0.85
2000-11 0.72
2000-12 0.64
2001-01 0.54
2001-02 0.52
2001-03 0.48
2001-04 -0.94
2001-05 -0.85
2001-06 -0.69
2001-07 -0.63
2001-08 -0.95
2001-09 -1.0
2001-10 -0.9
2001-11 -0.71
2001-12 -0.59
2002-01 0.54
2002-02 0.56
2002-03 0.94
2002-04 0.82
2002-05 0.73
2002-06 0.36
2002-07 -0.82
2002-08 -0.7
2002-09 -0.55
2002-10 -0.5
2002-11 -0.4
2002-12 -0.33
2003-01 -0.58
2003-02 -0.46
2003-03 -0.99
2003-04 -0.85
2003-05 -0.6
2003-06 -0.67
2003-07 0.43
2003-08 0.88
2003-09 0.99
2003-10 0.94
2003-11 1.0
2003-12 1.0
2004-01 0.99
2004-02 0.92
2004-03 0.88
2004-04 0.82
2004-05 0.73
2004-06 0.65
2004-07 0.6
2004-08 0.54
2004-09 0.5
2004-10 0.66
2004-11 0.04
2004-12 0.66
2005-01 0.42
2005-02 0.41
2005-03 0.64
2005-04 0.46
2005-05 0.44
2005-06 0.99
2005-07 0.88
2005-08 0.8
2005-09 0.96
2005-10 0.96
2005-11 0.84
2005-12 0.78
2006-01 0.91
2006-02 0.78
2006-03 0.71
2006-04 0.71
2006-05 0.98
2006-06 0.78
2006-07 0.92
2006-08 0.95
2006-09 1.0
2006-10 0.74
2006-11 0.8
2006-12 0.7
2007-01 0.66
2007-02 0.91
2007-03 0.77
2007-04 0.75
2007-05 0.67
2007-06 0.89
2007-07 0.89
2007-08 0.76
2007-09 0.69
2007-10 0.62
2007-11 0.86
2007-12 0.7
2008-01 0.63
2008-02 0.58
2008-03 0.56
2008-04 0.29
2008-05 -0.91
2008-06 -0.96
2008-07 -1.0
2008-08 -0.86
2008-09 -0.91
2008-10 -1.0
2008-11 -1.0
2008-12 -1.0
2009-01 -0.98
2009-02 -1.0
2009-03 -0.99
2009-04 -0.83
2009-05 0.09
2009-06 0.41
2009-07 0.24
2009-08 0.21
2009-09 0.88
2009-10 0.9
2009-11 0.45
2009-12 -0.31
2010-01 0.07
2010-02 -0.3
2010-03 -0.05
2010-04 0.1
2010-05 0.26
2010-06 0.14
2010-07 0.22
2010-08 0.95
2010-09 0.94
2010-10 0.93
2010-11 0.83
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.96
2011-02 0.97
2011-03 0.99
2011-04 0.88
2011-05 0.48
2011-06 0.6
2011-07 0.21
2011-08 -0.98
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.71
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.58
2012-01 -0.51
2012-02 -0.72
2012-03 0.4
2012-04 -0.09
2012-05 -0.83
2012-06 -0.98
2012-07 -0.97
2012-08 -0.81
2012-09 -0.65
2012-10 -0.99
2012-11 -0.83
2012-12 -0.67
2013-01 -0.59
2013-02 -0.85
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.99
2013-05 0.17
2013-06 0.1
2013-07 0.35
2013-08 0.94
2013-09 0.97
2013-10 0.82
2013-11 0.11
2013-12 0.35
2014-01 0.74
2014-02 0.56
2014-03 0.73
2014-04 0.31
2014-05 0.16
2014-06 -0.22
2014-07 -0.01
2014-08 -0.35
2014-09 -0.12
2014-10 -0.35
2014-11 -0.19
2014-12 -0.17
2015-01 -0.38
2015-02 -0.31
2015-03 0.0
2015-04 0.04
2015-05 0.21
2015-06 0.12
2015-07 0.19
2015-08 0.16
2015-09 0.09
2015-10 0.15
2015-11 0.11
2015-12 0.11
2016-01 0.74
2016-02 0.73
2016-03 0.58
2016-04 0.54
2016-05 0.8
2016-06 -0.34
2016-07 0.25
2016-08 0.11
2016-09 0.68
2016-10 0.48
2016-11 0.45
2016-12 0.5
2017-01 0.42
2017-02 0.87
2017-03 0.43
2017-04 0.57
2017-05 0.5
2017-06 0.87
2017-07 0.71
2017-08 0.77
2017-09 0.98
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.79
2017-12 0.86
2018-01 0.73
2018-02 0.03
2018-03 0.53
2018-04 0.39
2018-05 0.23
2018-06 0.46
2018-07 0.34
2018-08 0.32
2018-09 0.66
2018-10 0.45
2018-11 0.51
2018-12 0.42
2019-01 0.71

Graph 3Turning-point indicator

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate in December 2018, the business climate has been lowered by two points in services, by one point in manufacturing industry and in retail trade. It has been risen by one point in building construction. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

Encadré

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 23 February 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 23 February 2019 at 08:45 am


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