15 January 2019

2019- n° 9

Consumer prices accelerated on average from 2017 to 2018 Price Index – Annual average rates of change - year 2018

On average over the year, consumer prices gathered pace again in 2018 for the third consecutive year. The inflation was up by 1.8% after +1.0% in 2017, +0.2 % in 2016 and 0.0% in 2015. Excluded tobacco, consumer prices were also more dynamic than in 2017, but the acceleration was less marked: +1.6% in 2018 after +1.0% in 2017. In addition of a sharp increase in tobacco prices, the rise in inflation came, on the one hand, from an acceleration in the prices of energy, services and, on the other hand, from a lesser drop in manufactured product prices. Core inflation rose by 0.8% in 2018 after +0.5% in 2017.

After a rebound in 2017 consecutive to a three year fall, energy prices gathered pace in 2018 (+9.7% on overage after +6.2%), in the wake of petroleum product prices (+14.7% after +10.3%). Thus, on average over the year, motor fuel prices rose by 13.2% in 2018 (after +9.1% in 2017) and those of heating fuel by 22.3% (after +17.3%). Gas prices also sharply contributed to energy inflation (+12.0% after +4.6%). The increase in fuel and gas taxation in January 2018 and a higher average Brent price in 2018 than in 2017 contributed to it. Moreover, electricity prices also contributed to the rise in energy inflation, but a lesser extent: +1.3% after +0.4%.

After a 2.7% rise between 2016 and 2017, tobacco prices surged in 2018: +14.2% on overage over the year, due to an increase in taxes. A such rise had not been recorded since 2004.

Food prices accelerated in 2018 for the thirdconsecutive year (+1.9% after +1.0%). The prices of food products except fresh foodstuff rose more in 2018 than in 2017 (+1.3% after +0.6% in 2017) due to an increase in the prices of meat (+1.3% after +1.1%), milk, cheese and eggs (+2.0% after +0.2%), bread and cereals (+1.1% after +0.3%), oils and fats (+7.0% after +2.8%), non-alcoholic beverages (+1.0% after +0.6%) and alcoholic beverages (+1.1% after +0.6%). Fresh food prices were also more dynamic than in 2017 (+5.2% after +3.3%), due to a rise more marked in those of fresh vegetables (+7.1% after +5.6%) and fresh fruits (+6.6% after +2.1%).

The drop in communication services prices was less pronounced in 2018 (−1.0% on average after −3.5%), because of telecommunications services prices (−1.5% after −4.0%). The prices of postal services went up sharply after a revaluation in fees in January (+6.8% after +3.8%).

Health service prices slowed down in 2018 (+0.9% on average after +1.3% in 2017), after the changes in 2017 in medical fees provided by the medical convention signed in August 2016.

In 2018, transport service prices were also less dynamic after a rebound in 2017 (+0.8% after +2.0%). Airfares slowed down (+0.5% after +2.4%). The prices of other transports services also slackened: those of passenger transport by road (bus, taxis, etc.) rose by 1.6% in 2018 after +3.1% in 2017, those of combined passenger transports by 1.4% after +2.6% and those of passenger transport by rail by 0.3% after +0.7%.

In 2018, the prices of housing service (actual rentals, supply of water and refuse collection fees) continued to slow down: +0.1% on average after +0.4% in 2017. Actual rentals edged down by 0.3% in 2018 after +0.2% in 2017 due to a drop in social rental prices concurrent with these in individual housing benefits. On the other hand, the prices of the other housing services − mainly supply of water and refuse collection fees − rose barely less than in 2017 (+1.3% after +1.4%).

The prices of the other services gathered pace again in 2018 (+1.8% after +1.4% in 2017 and +1.3% in 2016), due to a stronger rise in the prices of accommodation services (+4.4% after +2.4%), package holidays (+12.9% after +1.7%) and social protection (child care services, retirement homes for elderly persons: +1.3% after +0.9%). Contrariwise, the prices in recreational and cultural services slowed down (+0.9% after +1.1%), as those in insurance (+1.8% after +2.1%).

In 2018, the prices of the manufactured products fell less than in 2017 (−0.2% after −0.6%). The prices of clothing and footwear barely rose (+0.1% in 2018 after a stability in 2017): those in clothing edged down (−0.2% after +0.1%) while those of footwear rebounded (+1.0% after −0.3%). The prices of “other manufactured products” rose by 0.2% after a decrease of the same level in 2017, due to an acceleration in car prices (+1.4% after +0.7%) and a lesser drop in household appliances prices (−1.6% after −2.0%).

The prices of furniture and furnishings were stable after a 0.4% drop in 2017. The drop in audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment prices (−2.3%) and in telephone equipment (−7.4%) continued in 2018. Lastly, health product prices fell (−2.3%).

According to their consumption structure households were subject to a global inflation more or less pronounced. Thus, in 2018, households under 30 years of age suffered the lowest price increase (+1.5% compared to +1.8% for all households). Similarly, inflation was 0.3points lower than the average for renter households, and 0.2points higher for owners. Differences by family composition and income also existed, but they were less than 0.2points.