29 November 2018
2018- n° 309French GDP rose by 0.4% in Q3 2018 Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - third quarter 2018
In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.4% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures recovered (+0.4% after −0.2%). Total gross fixed capital formation grew almost as quickly as in the previous quarter (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.9%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.
Imports stepped back in Q3 (−0.3% after +0.5%), whereas exports recovered (+0.4% after −0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth, +0.2 points, after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.3 points after +0.2 points).
In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.4% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures recovered (+0.4% after −0.2%). Total gross fixed capital formation grew almost as quickly as in the previous quarter (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.9%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.
Imports stepped back in Q3 (−0.3% after +0.5%), whereas exports recovered (+0.4% after −0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth, +0.2 points, after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.3 points after +0.2 points).
graphiqueGraph – GDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE
* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
tableauTab1 – GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes
| 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Imports | 0.4 | -0.7 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 4.1 | 0.6 |
| Household consumption *expenditure | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| General government's *consumption expenditure | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| GFCF | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| *of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Households | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 |
| General government | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Exports | 2.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Inventory changes | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
| Net foreign trade | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
- Source: INSEE
Total production accelerated
Production in goods and services accelerated in Q3 2018 (+0.6% after +0.3%). It bounced back in goods (+0.6% after −0.3%), and it grew at a slightly faster pace than in the previous quarter in services (+0.6% after +0.4%).
Output in manufactured recovered (+0.7% after −0.1%). Production in refineries bounced back (+11.6% after −9.6%); it had been notably low in Q2 due to maintenance work. Construction was at a standstill (+0.1% after +0.7%).
tableauTab2 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Goods | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Manufactured Industry | 1.4 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Construction | 0.5 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Market services | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| Non-market services | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Household consumption | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Food products | 0.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -1.1 |
| Energy | -1.1 | 0.6 | -2.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.8 |
| Engineered goods | -0.2 | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Services | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| GFCF | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| Manufactured goods | 1.7 | -1.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Construction | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Market services | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 4.6 |
- Source: INSEE
Household consumption recovered
Household consumption expenditure recovered in Q3 2018 (+0.4% after −0.2%): consumption of goods bounced back significantly (+0.4% after −0.4%) while that of services accelerated slightly (+0.4% after +0.1%).
In particular, in services, transport expenses bounced back strongly (+3.4% after −2.9%) after a significant decline in Q2, following strikes in rail transport.
Expenditures on energy were at a standstill, after a decrease due to temperatures higher than seasonal norms in Q2 (+0.1% after −2.3%). Consumption of food products stablised after two quarters of decline (+0.2% after −1.3% in Q2).
tableauTab3 – Sectoral accounts
| 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) | 32.0 | 32.0 | 31.5 | 32.0 | ||
| Households' purchasing power | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
- *NFCs: non-financial corporations
- Source: INSEE
tableauTab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
| 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | |
| Household purchasing power | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 14.4 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 14.2 | ||
| Financial saving rate (level) | 4.4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
- *cu: consumption unit
- Source: INSEE
Corporate investment remained dynamic, household investment faltered slightly
In Q3 2018, total GFCF grew at the same pace as in the previous quarter (+0.9% after +0.9%). It was sustained by corporate investment (+1.6% after +1.3%), notably investment in IT activities and information services, as well as in automotive. Conversely, household investment faltered sligthly (−0.1% after +0.1%), in connection with the decline in housing starts since late 2017.
tableauTab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
| 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 32.0 | 32.0 | 31.5 | 32.0 | |
| Investment ratio | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.9 | 23.5 | |
| Savings ratio | 22.5 | 22.9 | 22.7 | 22.7 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 95.3 | 97.0 | 94.8 | 96.6 |
- Source: INSEE
Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP this quarter
In Q3, exports recovered (+0.4% after −0.1%), while imports stepped back (−0.3% after +0.5%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.2 points, after −0.2 points in Q2 2018.
tableauTab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2018 Q3 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 327.1 | 329.2 | 328.6 | 1294.3 | |
| Total receipts | 314.4 | 314.7 | 312.9 | 1232.7 | |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -12.8 | -14.5 | -15.7 | -61.6 | |
| In % of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -2.2 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -2.7 |
- Source: INSEE
Stock variations weighed down GDP growth
In Q3 2018, stock variations contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points (after +0.2 points). In particular, they decreased significantly in transport equipment.
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2018 is confirmed at +0.4%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series: Operations on goods an services
Time series: Gross domestic product balance
Time series: Institutional sector accounts
Time series: Branch accounts
