Insee conjoncture
29 novembre 2018
N° 2018-309

French GDP rose by 0.4% in Q3 2018Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - third quarter 2018

In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.4% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures recovered (+0.4% after −0.2%). Total gross fixed capital formation grew almost as quickly as in the previous quarter (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.9%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.

Imports stepped back in Q3 (−0.3% after +0.5%), whereas exports recovered (+0.4% after −0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth, +0.2 points, after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.3 points after +0.2 points).

Informations rapides
No 309
Paru le : 29/11/2018
Prochaine parution le : 28/02/2019 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2018

In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.4% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures recovered (+0.4% after −0.2%). Total gross fixed capital formation grew almost as quickly as in the previous quarter (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.9%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.

Imports stepped back in Q3 (−0.3% after +0.5%), whereas exports recovered (+0.4% after −0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth, +0.2 points, after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.3 points after +0.2 points).

GraphGDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Tab1GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
GDP 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 2.3 1.5
Imports 0.4 -0.7 0.5 -0.3 4.1 0.6
Household consumption *expenditure 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4 1.1 0.8
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.0
GFCF 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 4.7 2.8
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 1.3 0.1 1.3 1.6 4.4 3.8
Households 0.8 0.2 0.1 -0.1 5.6 1.6
General government 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 1.6 0.8
Exports 2.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 4.7 2.3
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.0 1.3
Inventory changes -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.3
Net foreign trade 0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5
  • Source: INSEE

Total production accelerated

Production in goods and services accelerated in Q3 2018 (+0.6% after +0.3%). It bounced back in goods (+0.6% after −0.3%), and it grew at a slightly faster pace than in the previous quarter in services (+0.6% after +0.4%).

Output in manufactured recovered (+0.7% after −0.1%). Production in refineries bounced back (+11.6% after −9.6%); it had been notably low in Q2 due to maintenance work. Construction was at a standstill (+0.1% after +0.7%).

Tab2Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.6 1.9
Goods 1.2 -0.7 -0.3 0.6 2.2 0.9
Manufactured Industry 1.4 -1.0 -0.1 0.7 2.4 0.9
Construction 0.5 -0.4 0.7 0.1 3.5 1.0
Market services 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 3.2 2.7
Non-market services 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 1.0
Household consumption 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4 1.1 0.8
Food products 0.1 -0.3 -1.3 0.2 0.3 -1.1
Energy -1.1 0.6 -2.3 0.1 0.1 -0.8
Engineered goods -0.2 -0.3 1.0 0.7 2.6 1.5
Services 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 1.6 1.4
GFCF 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 4.7 2.8
Manufactured goods 1.7 -1.3 1.3 2.1 3.7 3.0
Construction 0.3 0.0 0.7 -0.3 3.5 1.2
Market services 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.7 7.0 4.6
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption recovered

Household consumption expenditure recovered in Q3 2018 (+0.4% after −0.2%): consumption of goods bounced back significantly (+0.4% after −0.4%) while that of services accelerated slightly (+0.4% after +0.1%).

In particular, in services, transport expenses bounced back strongly (+3.4% after −2.9%) after a significant decline in Q2, following strikes in rail transport.

Expenditures on energy were at a standstill, after a decrease due to temperatures higher than seasonal norms in Q2 (+0.1% after −2.3%). Consumption of food products stablised after two quarters of decline (+0.2% after −1.3% in Q2).

Tab3Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) 32.0 32.0 31.5   32.0  
Households' purchasing power 0.4 -0.4 0.8   1.4 0.8
  • *NFCs: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
HDI 0.8 0.2 1.3   2.7 2.2
Household purchasing power 0.4 -0.4 0.8 1.4 0.8
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.3 -0.5 0.7 0.9 0.5
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.4 -0.3 0.7 1.5 0.9
Saving rate (level) 14.4 13.8 14.6 14.2  
Financial saving rate (level) 4.4 3.6 4.3   4.4  
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Corporate investment remained dynamic, household investment faltered slightly

In Q3 2018, total GFCF grew at the same pace as in the previous quarter (+0.9% after +0.9%). It was sustained by corporate investment (+1.6% after +1.3%), notably investment in IT activities and information services, as well as in automotive. Conversely, household investment faltered sligthly (−0.1% after +0.1%), in connection with the decline in housing starts since late 2017.

Tab5Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017
Profit share 32.0 32.0 31.5   32.0
Investment ratio 23.6 23.6 23.9   23.5
Savings ratio 22.5 22.9 22.7   22.7
Self-financing ratio 95.3 97.0 94.8   96.6
  • Source: INSEE

Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP this quarter

In Q3, exports recovered (+0.4% after −0.1%), while imports stepped back (−0.3% after +0.5%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.2 points, after −0.2 points in Q2 2018.

Tab6Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017
In billions of euros    
Total expenditure 327.1 329.2 328.6   1294.3
Total receipts 314.4 314.7 312.9   1232.7
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -12.8 -14.5 -15.7   -61.6
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.2 -2.5 -2.7   -2.7
  • Source: INSEE

Stock variations weighed down GDP growth

In Q3 2018, stock variations contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points (after +0.2 points). In particular, they decreased significantly in transport equipment.

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2018 is confirmed at +0.4%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)

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Prochaine parution le : 28/02/2019 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2018