30 octobre 2018
N° 2018-288

French GDP rose by 0.4% in Q3 2018Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2018

In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.4% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures recovered (+0.5% after −0.1%). Total gross fixed capital formation grew almost as quickly as in the previous quarter (GFCF: +0.8% after +0.9%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.

Imports slowed down in Q3 (+0.3% after +0.7%), whereas exports accelerated (+0.7% after +0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth, +0.1 points, after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.2 points after +0.2 points).

Informations rapides
No 288
Paru le : Paru le 30/10/2018
Prochaine parution le : 30/10/2019 at 07:30 - third quarter 2019
Informations rapides  No 288 - octobre 2018

In Q3 2018, GDP in volume terms* accelerated slightly: +0.4% after +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures recovered (+0.5% after −0.1%). Total gross fixed capital formation grew almost as quickly as in the previous quarter (GFCF: +0.8% after +0.9%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated: it contributed 0.5 points to GDP growth, after 0.2 points in the previous quarter.

Imports slowed down in Q3 (+0.3% after +0.7%), whereas exports accelerated (+0.7% after +0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth, +0.1 points, after −0.2 points in Q2. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.2 points after +0.2 points).

GraphGDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Tab1GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
GDP 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 2.3 1.5
Imports 0.3 -0.4 0.7 0.3 4.1 1.3
Household consumption *expenditure 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.4 0.9
GFCF 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 4.7 2.8
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 1.3 0.1 1.3 1.4 4.4 3.7
Households 0.8 0.2 0.0 -0.2 5.6 1.6
General government 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.6 1.1
Exports 2.3 -0.4 0.1 0.7 4.7 2.9
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 2.0 1.3
Inventory changes -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.3
Net foreign trade 0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5
  • Source: INSEE

Total production accelerated

Production in goods and services accelerated in Q3 2018 (+0.7% after +0.3%). It bounced back in goods (+0.8% after −0.2%), and it grew at a slightly faster pace than in the previous quarter in services (+0.6% after +0.4%).

Output in manufactured recovered (+0.8% after −0.1%). Production in refineries bounced back (+11.3% after −9.7%) ; it had been notably low in Q2 due to maintenance work. Conversely, construction was at a standstill (+0.0% after +0.6%).

Tab2Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Production of branches 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.6 1.9
Goods 1.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.8 2.2 1.0
Manufactured Industry 1.5 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 2.4 1.0
Construction 0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.0 3.5 1.0
Market services 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 3.2 2.7
Non-market services 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 1.0
Household consumption 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9
Food products 0.2 -0.3 -1.3 0.1 0.3 -1.2
Energy -1.4 0.9 -2.2 0.4 0.1 -0.4
Engineered goods 0.0 -0.3 1.0 1.1 2.6 1.7
Services 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.4
GFCF 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 4.7 2.8
Manufactured goods 1.7 -1.2 1.3 1.6 3.7 2.9
Construction 0.2 0.1 0.6 -0.2 3.5 1.2
Market services 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.7 7.0 4.6
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption recovered

Household consumption expenditure recovered in Q3 2018 (+0.5% after +0.1%): consumption of goods bounced back significantly (+0.6% after −0.4%) and that of services accelerated slightly (+0.3% after +0.1%).

In particular, expenditures on energy recovered slightly (+0.4% after −2.2%), after temperatures higher than seasonal norms in Q2. Consumption of food products stablised after two quarters of decline (+0.1% after −1.3% in Q2).

In services, transport expenses bounced back markedly (+3.7% after −2.9%) after a significant decline in Q2, following strikes in rail transport.

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Tab3Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) 32.0 32.0 31.5   32.0  
Households' purchasing power 0.2 -0.5 0.6   1.4 0.5
  • *NFCs: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017 2018 (ovhg)
HDI 0.7 0.1 1.1   2.7 1.9
Household purchasing power 0.2 -0.5 0.6 1.4 0.5
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.1 -0.6 0.5 0.9 0.2
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.3 -0.3 0.6 1.5 0.7
Saving rate (level) 14.3 13.6 14.3 14.2  
Financial saving rate (level) 4.4 3.6 4.2   4.4  
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Corporate investment remained dynamic, household investment faltered slightly

In Q3 2018, total GFCF grew at almost the same pace as in the previous quarter (+0.8% after +0.9%). It was sustained by corporate investment (+1.4% after +1.3%), notably investment in IT activities and information services, as well as in automotive. Conversely, household investment faltered sligthly (−0.2% after +0.0%), in connection with the decline in housing starts since late 2017.

Tab5Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data) -
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017
Profit share 32.0 32.0 31.5   32.0
Investment ratio 23.6 23.6 23.9   23.5
Savings ratio 22.4 23.0 22.7   22.7
Self-financing ratio 95.1 97.5 94.9   96.6
  • Source: INSEE

Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP this quarter

In Q3, imports accelerated (+0.7% after +0.1%), while exports slowed down (+0.3% after +0.7%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.1 points, after −0.2 points in Q2 2018.

Tab6Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data) -
2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017
In billions of euros    
Total expenditure 327.1 329.2 328.5   1294.3
Total receipts 314.6 314.8 313.7   1232.7
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -12.5 -14.5 -14.9   -61.6
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.2 -2.5 -2.5   -2.7
  • Source: INSEE

Stock variations weighed down GDP growth

In Q3 2018, stock variations contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.2 points (after +0.2 points). In particular, they decreased significantly in transport equipment.

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2018 is confirmed at +0.2%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)


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