24 October 2018

2018- n° 276

In October 2018, the business climate has weakened markedly in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - October 2018

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has deteriorated in October 2018. The composite indicator that measures it has lost four points, to 105. However, it remains well above its long-term average (100), that it has reached or exceeded since February 2015.

Many more managers than in September have anticipated a fall in their sales and in their orders. The balance of managers' opinion on the ordering intentions stands now just above its long-term mean whereas that on expected sales has fallen below. The balance of managers' opinion on their past sales has also slided below its mean. The one on expected prices has edged down and remains just above its mean. Nevertheless, the managers' optimism on the general business outlook for the sector has not waned: the steady decrease in the corresponding balance, which has been observed since the beginning of the year, is stopped in October; the indicator has bounced back and remains above its long-term average.

The balance of managers' opinion on expected workforce has dropped back after a rebound last month, in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles. The balance of opinion on past employment has recovered a little in retail trade without returning to its long-term mean yet. It has fallen again in the trade and repair of motor vehicles but it remains above its mean.

In retail trade, the business climate has been deteriorating since August. In October, the composite indicator that measures it has lost four points, to 99. It has moved below its average (100) for the first time since May 2017. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has declined sharply and has gone well below its long-term mean. Many more retailers than in September have indicated a decrease in their past and expected sales: the balance on expected sales has declined due to the non-specialised retail trade and has gone below its mean; the one on past sales has moved away its even more. Fewer retailers than in September have anticipated a rise in their prices for the next few months: the corresponding balance has slightly decreased but remains above its mean. Nevertheless, retailers are slightly more optimistic than in September on the general business outlook: the corresponding balance has bounced back and remains above its long-term mean.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, the business climate has lost one point but remains at a high level (111). It has been above its long-term average (100) since January 2015. The balances of opinion concerning past and expected sales have continued to decline. If the one on the past sales remains well above its long-term mean, the one on expected sales has decreased more sharply and has returned to it. The balances on ordering intentions and on general business outlook have slightly bounced back and remain firmly above their long-term mean. The balance of opinion on expected prices is stable at its mean.