25 September 2018

2018- n° 252

In September 2018, the French business climate and the employment climate have slightly improved Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - September 2018

In September 2018, the business climate has gained one point and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). At a very high level at the end of 2017, it had almost continuously declined since the beginning of the year. Compared to August, the business climate has lost three points in manufacturing industry and two points in retail trade. It is stable in building construction. It has gained one point in services and two in wholesale trade. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

In September 2018, the employment climate has improved. The associated composite indicator stands at 108, well above its long-term average. This rise comes mainly from the bounce in the balance of opinion on past employment in the services sector excluding temporary employment, which has been rmoderated by the decline in the balances on past employment in retail trade and in temporary work agencies, and in that on expected employment in the services sector excluding temporary employment.

Compared to its first estimate in July 2018, the composite indicator for wholesale trade has been raised by one point. Compared to its first estimate in August 2018, the employment climate has been lowered by one point. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favorable short-term economic outlook.