Insee conjoncture
25 septembre 2018
N° 2018-252

In September 2018, the French business climate and the employment climate have slightly improvedBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - September 2018

In September 2018, the business climate has gained one point and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). At a very high level at the end of 2017, it had almost continuously declined since the beginning of the year. Compared to August, the business climate has lost three points in manufacturing industry and two points in retail trade. It is stable in building construction. It has gained one point in services and two in wholesale trade. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides
No 252
Paru le : 25/09/2018
Prochaine parution le : 26/03/2019 at 08:45 - March 2019

After weakening since the beginning of 2018, the French business climate has stopped declining

In September 2018, the business climate has gained one point and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). At a very high level at the end of 2017, it had almost continuously declined since the beginning of the year. Compared to August, the business climate has lost three points in manufacturing industry and two points in retail trade. It is stable in building construction. It has gained one point in services and two in wholesale trade. The business climate remains above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate has slightly improved and remains at a high level

In September 2018, the employment climate has improved. The associated composite indicator stands at 108, well above its long-term average. This rise comes mainly from the bounce in the balance of opinion on past employment in the services sector excluding temporary employment, which has been rmoderated by the decline in the balances on past employment in retail trade and in temporary work agencies, and in that on expected employment in the services sector excluding temporary employment.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate in July 2018, the composite indicator for wholesale trade has been raised by one point. Compared to its first estimate in August 2018, the employment climate has been lowered by one point. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

Graph 1French business climate composite indicator

Graph 2French employment climate composite indicator

Table 1Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates ( ) -
May 18 June 18 July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18
Business climates
France 107 107 106 105 106
Manufacturing 110 110 109 110 107
Building 108 108 109 108 108
Services 104 105 105 104 105
Retail trade 112 112 114 111 109
Wholesale trade 104 - 102 - 104
Employment climate
Employment 108 110 108 107 108
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator points out a favorable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favorable short-term economic outlook.

Table 2Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators ( ) -
May 18 June 18 July 18 Aug. 18 Sept. 18
France 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7
Manufacturing 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Building 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5
Services –0.4 0.6 0.4 –0.3 0.6
Wholesale trade –0.8 - 0.1 - –0.2
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph 3Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. -1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)


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