14 August 2018

2018- n° 212

In July 2018, consumer prices decreased by 0.1 over one month and rose by 2.3% year on year Consumer price index - final results - July 2018

In July 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) declined by 0.1%, after a stability in June. This slight drop came from a seasonal fall in manufactured product prices (−2.8%) due to summer sales, partly offset by a rebound in services prices (+1.1%), essentially in airfares with the beginning of school holidays. Energy prices slowed down (+0.5% after +0.9%). Finally, food prices recovered slightly (+0.1% after −0.2%).

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices accelerated to +0.3% after a stability in June.

Year on year, consumer prices rose by 2.3%, that is 0.3 points of percentage more than in the previous month. This stronger inflation resulted essentially from a year-on-year acceleration in energy prices, and to a lesser extent, in service prices and tobacco prices. The lesser drop in manufactured product prices also contributed to the rise in inflation. Finally, the year-on-year inflation in food prices was unchanged.

Year on year, core inflation slighlty rose: +0.9% after +0.8% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) dropped by 0.1% in July, after a stability in June; year on year, it grew by 2.6%, following 2.3% in the previous month.

In July 2018, energy inflation increased for the fourth consecutive month (+14.3% year on year after +12.3% in June) owing to a strong acceleration in gas prices (+17.3% year-on-year after +6.4% last month) and to a further increase in the prices of petroleum products (+21.8% over a year after +21.0%).

Year on year, services prices rose by 1.3% (+1.2% last month). Transport prices gathered pace (+1.4% year-on-year after +0.6%), particularly those of airfares (+1.0% year-on-year after +0.6%). The prices of rail transport also rose (+0.5% year-on-year after −0.2%) due to the end of promotional offers on discount cards. In this first month of school holidays, accommodation service prices accelerated to +5.7% over one year, after +5.2% in June. The year-on-year rise in communication services prices remained at 0.7%. By contrast, insurance prices slowed down (+1.2% after +1.6% over a year), as to a lesser extent those of health services (+0.4% after +0.5% year on year). Moreover, the prices of actual rentals and of services for dwellings decreased again (−0.3% after −0.2%).

Year on year, manufactured products prices dropped by 0.1%, after a 0.2% decrease in the previous month. Indeed, clothing and footwear prices bounced back to +0.8% over a year (−0.3% in June), due to a lesser impact of summer sales than last year. However; the prices of “other manufactured products” slightly slowed down (+0.1% year on year after +0.2%): the further rise in new motor cars prices (+2.3% year on year after +1.8%) was offset by the sharp downturn in the prices of furniture and furnishing (−0.7% year-on-year after +0.8%) and equipement for sport (−1.9% over a year after −0.5%). Furthermore, health product prices decreased by 2.2% year on year as in June.

In July 2018, food prices rose by 1.9% over a year, as in the previous month. The prices of fresh products accelerated once again (+6.4% year-on-year after +5.9%), because of a sharper rise in fresh vegetables prices (+10.1% y-o-y after +8.3%) and in fresh seafood prices (+3.1% after +1.1% year on year). Nevertheless, fresh fruits prices slowed down in July (+8.0% year-on-year after +9.1%). Excluding fresh products, food prices rose by 1.2% over a year, the same year-on-year increase as in the six last months.

Compared with the provisional estimates published on July 31, 2018, the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the CPI and in the HICP are unchanged.