27 July 2018
N° 2018-199

French GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2 2018Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2018

In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.7% after +0.1%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).

Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.7% after −0.3%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.6% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.3 points after 0.0 points).

Informations rapides
No 199
Paru le : Paru le 27/07/2018
Prochaine parution le : 31/01/2020 at 07:30 - fourth quarter 2019
Informations rapides  No 199 - July 2018

In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.7% after +0.1%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).

Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.7% after −0.3%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.6% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.3 points after 0.0 points).

GraphGDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Tab1GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
GDP 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 2.3 1.3
Imports 2.0 0.3 -0.3 1.7 4.1 2.0
Household consumption *expenditure 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 1.1 0.5
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.1
GFCF 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.7 4.7 2.3
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 1.8 1.2 0.1 1.1 4.4 2.8
Households 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.1 5.6 1.6
General government 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.3
Exports 0.8 2.5 -0.4 0.6 4.7 3.0
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 2.0 1.1
Inventory changes 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade -0.4 0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.3
  • Source: INSEE

Total production slightly increased

Production in goods and services barely accelerated in Q2 2018 (+0.2% after +0.1%). It fell back again in goods (−0.3% after −0.6%) while it continued to grow in services (+0.4% after +0.3%).

Output in manufactured goods fell back again (−0.2% after −1.0%). Production in refinery stepped back (−9.9% after −1.6%) due to technical maintenance; production in electricity and gas dropped too (−1.7% after +1.9%). However, construction bounced back (+0.6% after −0.3%).

Tab2Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 2.6 1.5
Goods 0.9 1.1 -0.6 -0.3 2.2 0.6
Manufactured Industry 0.9 1.3 -1.0 -0.2 2.4 0.4
Construction 0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.6 3.5 1.0
Market services 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 3.2 2.2
Non-market services 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.2
Household consumption 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 1.1 0.5
Food products -0.5 0.1 -0.3 -1.3 0.3 -1.2
Energy 1.1 -0.6 0.8 -1.7 0.1 0.0
Engineered goods 1.2 0.0 -0.3 1.2 2.6 1.2
Services 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.6 1.1
GFCF 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.7 4.7 2.3
Manufactured goods 2.0 1.7 -1.1 1.2 3.7 2.0
Construction 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.7 3.5 1.5
Market services 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.5 7.0 3.5
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption faltered

Household consumption expenditure faltered slightly in Q1 2018 (−0.1% after +0.2%): consumption of goods declined again (−0.3% after −0.1%) and that of services slowed down sharply (+0.1% after +0.4%).

In particular, consumption of food products braked (−1.3% after −0.3%), as expenditures on energy (−1.7% after +0.8%) because of temperatures higher than the seasonal norms in April.

In services, the slow down was notably driven by the downturn in transport expenses (−3.2% after +1.0%), mainly in rail transport as a result of strikes.

Tab3Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) 32.1 32.0 31.9   32.0  
Households' purchasing power 0.4 0.1 -0.6   1.4 -0.1
  • *NFCs: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017 2018 (ovhg)
HDI 0.6 0.6 0.0   2.7 0.9
Household purchasing power 0.4 0.1 -0.6 1.4 -0.1
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.3 0.0 -0.7 0.9 -0.4
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.5 0.2 -0.4 1.5 0.1
Saving rate (level) 14.3 14.3 13.6 14.2  
Financial saving rate (level) 4.4 4.5 3.5   4.4  
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Corporate investment accelerated, household investment was almost stable

In Q2 2018, total GFCF recovered sharply (+0.7% after +0.1% in Q1 2018), especially because of the upsurge in corporate investment (+1.1% after +0.1%). It was mainly due to the upswing in manufactured goods (+1.2% after −1.1%). Conversely, household investment weakened slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%).

Tab5Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017
Profit share 32.1 32.0 31.9   32.0
Investment ratio 23.5 23.6 23.6   23.5
Savings ratio 23.0 22.4 22.8   22.5
Self-financing ratio 97.7 94.7 96.6   95.9
  • Source: INSEE

Foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP this quarter

Imports recovered sharply in Q2 2018 (+1.7% after −0.3%) after the decrease observed in Q1. Exports also bounced back but to a lesser extent (+0.6% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points after a neutral contribution in the previous quarter.

Tab6Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data) -
2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2017
In billions of euros    
Total expenditure 324.6 327.5 329.2   1292.5
Total receipts 309.0 314.2 315.1   1232.8
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -15.6 -13.4 -14.0   -59.7
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.7 -2.3 -2.4   -2.6
  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

GDP growth estimate for Q1 2018 is confirmed at +0.2%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)


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