27 July 2018
2018- n° 199French GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2 2018 Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2018
In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.7% after +0.1%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).
Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.7% after −0.3%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.6% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.3 points after 0.0 points).
In Q2 2018, GDP in volume terms* rose at the same pace as in Q1: +0.2%. Household consumption expenditures faltered slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%), whereas total gross fixed capital formation recovered sharply (GFCF: +0.7% after +0.1%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed as much to GDP growth as in Q1 (+0.2 points).
Imports bounced back this quarter (+1.7% after −0.3%) as did exports to a lesser extent (+0.6% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth, −0.3 points, after a neutral contribution in Q1. Conversely, changes in inventories drove GDP on (+0.3 points after 0.0 points).
graphiqueGraph – GDP and its main components
- Source: INSEE
* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
tableauTab1 – GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Imports | 2.0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| Household consumption *expenditure | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| General government's *consumption expenditure | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| GFCF | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| *of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| Households | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 |
| General government | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Exports | 0.8 | 2.5 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 |
| Contributions: | ||||||
| Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Inventory changes | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Net foreign trade | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
- Source: INSEE
Total production slightly increased
Production in goods and services barely accelerated in Q2 2018 (+0.2% after +0.1%). It fell back again in goods (−0.3% after −0.6%) while it continued to grow in services (+0.4% after +0.3%).
Output in manufactured goods fell back again (−0.2% after −1.0%). Production in refinery stepped back (−9.9% after −1.6%) due to technical maintenance; production in electricity and gas dropped too (−1.7% after +1.9%). However, construction bounced back (+0.6% after −0.3%).
tableauTab2 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production of branches | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goods | 0.9 | 1.1 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Manufactured Industry | 0.9 | 1.3 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Construction | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| Market services | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Non-market services | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Household consumption | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Food products | -0.5 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.3 | -1.2 |
| Energy | 1.1 | -0.6 | 0.8 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Engineered goods | 1.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| Services | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| GFCF | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Manufactured goods | 2.0 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| Construction | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| Market services | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 |
- Source: INSEE
Household consumption faltered
Household consumption expenditure faltered slightly in Q1 2018 (−0.1% after +0.2%): consumption of goods declined again (−0.3% after −0.1%) and that of services slowed down sharply (+0.1% after +0.4%).
In particular, consumption of food products braked (−1.3% after −0.3%), as expenditures on energy (−1.7% after +0.8%) because of temperatures higher than the seasonal norms in April.
In services, the slow down was notably driven by the downturn in transport expenses (−3.2% after +1.0%), mainly in rail transport as a result of strikes.
tableauTab3 – Sectoral accounts
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) | 32.1 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 32.0 | ||
| Households' purchasing power | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
- *NFCs: non-financial corporations
- Source: INSEE
tableauTab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | 2018 (ovhg) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDI | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | |
| Household purchasing power | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 1.4 | -0.1 | |
| HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 0.9 | -0.4 | |
| Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 1.5 | 0.1 | |
| Saving rate (level) | 14.3 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 14.2 | ||
| Financial saving rate (level) | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
- *cu: consumption unit
- Source: INSEE
Corporate investment accelerated, household investment was almost stable
In Q2 2018, total GFCF recovered sharply (+0.7% after +0.1% in Q1 2018), especially because of the upsurge in corporate investment (+1.1% after +0.1%). It was mainly due to the upswing in manufactured goods (+1.2% after −1.1%). Conversely, household investment weakened slightly (−0.1% after +0.2%).
tableauTab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit share | 32.1 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 32.0 | |
| Investment ratio | 23.5 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.5 | |
| Savings ratio | 23.0 | 22.4 | 22.8 | 22.5 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 97.7 | 94.7 | 96.6 | 95.9 |
- Source: INSEE
Foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP this quarter
Imports recovered sharply in Q2 2018 (+1.7% after −0.3%) after the decrease observed in Q1. Exports also bounced back but to a lesser extent (+0.6% after −0.4%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.3 points after a neutral contribution in the previous quarter.
tableauTab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
| 2017 Q3 | 2017 Q4 | 2018 Q1 | 2018 Q2 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In billions of euros | |||||
| Total expenditure | 324.6 | 327.5 | 329.2 | 1292.5 | |
| Total receipts | 309.0 | 314.2 | 315.1 | 1232.8 | |
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -15.6 | -13.4 | -14.0 | -59.7 | |
| In % of GDP | |||||
| Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -2.7 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.6 |
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
GDP growth estimate for Q1 2018 is confirmed at +0.2%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.
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