21 June 2018
2018- n° 161In June 2018, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate has
improved Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - June 2018
In June 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). The business climate is stable in manufacturing industry and in services. It has risen by one point in building construction and retail trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The French business climate is stable above its long-term mean
In June 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). The business climate is stable in manufacturing industry and in services. It has risen by one point in building construction and retail trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate has improved and has returned to its level of February
In June 2018, the employment climate has improved after a small decline in April. The associated composite indicator has gained two points: it stands at 110, moving back to its level of February, well above its long-term average. This increase mainly comes from the rebound in the balance of opinion on past workforce size in service sector excluding temporary employment.
Revisions
Compared to its first estimate in May 2018, the employment climate has been raised by one point. At the sector level, the composite indicators for the manufacturing industry, services and retail trade have also been raised by one point. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.
graphiqueGraph 1 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable 1 – Business and employment climates
| Feb. 18 | March 18 | April 18 | May 18 | June 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 109 | 109 | 108 | 106 | 106 |
| Manufacturing | 112 | 110 | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| Building | 106 | 107 | 108 | 108 | 109 |
| Services | 107 | 107 | 107 | 104 | 104 |
| Retail trade | 115 | 113 | 111 | 111 | 112 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 110 | - | 104 | - |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 110 | 111 | 108 | 108 | 110 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole has moved back into the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable 2 – Turning point indicators
| Feb. 18 | March 18 | April 18 | May 18 | June 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | –0,5 | –0,3 | –0,2 | –0,2 | 0,6 |
| Manufacturing | 0,7 | –0,6 | –0,5 | –0,2 | 0,1 |
| Building | –0,8 | –0,3 | 0,1 | 0,1 | 0,4 |
| Services | 0,1 | 0,3 | 0,3 | 0,0 | 0,7 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 0,6 | - | –0,8 | - |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph 2 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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