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In June 2018, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate has improvedBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - June 2018

In June 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). The business climate is stable in manufacturing industry and in services. It has risen by one point in building construction and retail trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides N° 161
No 161
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 21/06/2018
Prochaine parution le : 25/09/2018 at 08:45 - September 2018

The French business climate is stable above its long-term mean

In June 2018, the business climate is stable and remains at a relatively high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100). The business climate is stable in manufacturing industry and in services. It has risen by one point in building construction and retail trade. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate has improved and has returned to its level of February

In June 2018, the employment climate has improved after a small decline in April. The associated composite indicator has gained two points: it stands at 110, moving back to its level of February, well above its long-term average. This increase mainly comes from the rebound in the balance of opinion on past workforce size in service sector excluding temporary employment.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate in May 2018, the employment climate has been raised by one point. At the sector level, the composite indicators for the manufacturing industry, services and retail trade have also been raised by one point. These revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.

Graph 1 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table 1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Feb. 18 March 18 April 18 May 18 June 18
Business climates
France 109 109 108 106 106
Manufacturing 112 110 109 110 110
Building 106 107 108 108 109
Services 107 107 107 104 104
Retail trade 115 113 111 111 112
Wholesale trade - 110 - 104 -
Employment climate
Employment 110 111 108 108 110
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole has moved back into the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Table 2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Feb. 18 March 18 April 18 May 18 June 18
France –0,5 –0,3 –0,2 –0,2 0,6
Manufacturing 0,7 –0,6 –0,5 –0,2 0,1
Building –0,8 –0,3 0,1 0,1 0,4
Services 0,1 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,7
Wholesale trade - 0,6 - –0,8 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph 2 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)