Informations rapides
21 June 2018
2018- n° 159
In June 2018, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - June 2018

According to business managers surveyed in June 2018, the business climate in services is stable. At 104, the business climate composite indicator stands above its long-term average (100).

Because of late businesses' answers that have been taken into account, the composite indicator for May has been revised upward by one point.

Informations rapides
No 159
Paru le :Paru le21/06/2018
Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024

According to business managers surveyed in June 2018, the business climate in services is stable. At 104, the business climate composite indicator stands above its long-term average (100).

Because of late businesses' answers that have been taken into account, the composite indicator for May has been revised upward by one point.

Graph 1Business climate composite indicator

In June 2018, the turning point indicator has returned into the area indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.

Graph 2Turning point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

The balances of opinion on activity have bounced back

The balances on past and expected activity have recovered. The balance of opinion on expected demand has picked up too. However, the optimism of business managers on the general outlook over their sector has weakened. All of these balances stand above their long-term average.

The balance on past employment has clearly grown in June whereas it had decreased and reached its average since April. That on expected employment has sharply dipped but remains however above its average.

The balances of opinion on past and expected investments have weakened but remain above their long-term average.

Table 1Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Average* March 18 April 18 May 18 June 18
Composite indicator 100 107 107 104 104
General outlook –7 3 3 0 –2
Past activity 2 6 8 1 6
Expected activity 2 4 5 1 4
Expected demand 0 8 4 2 4
Past selling prices –4 –2 0 –2 –1
Expected selling prices –3 –3 –3 –3 –4
Past employment 3 8 3 3 9
except temporary work agencies 1 3 1 0 5
Expected employment 3 15 12 12 7
except temporary work agencies 0 6 5 6 4
Investments
Past investments 2 4 7 7 3
Expected investments 1 5 4 8 6
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate composite indicator has improved in virtually all sub-sectors, except in administrative and support service activities. It remains well above its long-term average in road tranport, accommodation and food service activities, professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support service activities.

In road transport, the business climate has started to improve again

In road transport, the business climate indicator has gained two points. At 112, it is clearly above its average level. The balances on activity have climbed. That on expected demand has strongly grown. The other balances have fallen back. All balances are above their average.

In accommodation and food services, the business climate has picked up a little

After a sharp decline in the previous month, the climate in accommodation and food services has gained one point. At 109, it remains well above its average. The balances on activity have recovered. Regarding employment, the balance on past employment has clearly increased but that on expected employment has strongly fallen back.

The business climate has slightly improved in information and communication

In information and communication, the business climate has gained one point (101). The balances on activity and on expected demand have picked up but remain below their average level. The balances on employment and on general outlook have slightly decreased.

The business climate remains deteriorated in real estate activities

In real estate activities, the climate has gained one point (89) but stands significantly below its average level. The balances on expected activity and on general outlook have declined and so, remain deteriorated. However, the balances of opinion on past activity and expected demand have improved again.

In professional activities, the business climate has brightened again

The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has gained three points (108) and stands well above its long-term average. All the balances of opinion remain above their average and only the balance on expected employment has slightly slipped back.

The business climate has weakened a little again in administrative and support service activities

In administrative and support service activities, the climate has faltered for the third month in a row. At 107, it remains nevertheless well above its average. The balances on expected activity, on expected demand, on general outlook and on expected employment have declined. However, all balances stand above their average.

Table 2Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted) -
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* March 18 April 18 May 18 June 18
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 114 110 110 112
Past activity –6 16 14 5 6
Expected activity –7 11 6 6 9
Expected demand –10 13 8 9 16
Past employment –5 18 –1 7 3
Expected employment –8 8 2 5 –1
General outlook –20 12 6 7 1
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 109 112 108 109
Past activity –7 –9 9 –3 3
Expected activity –7 2 3 –1 4
Expected demand –9 4 2 –1 0
Past employment –4 –7 –4 –4 3
Expected employment –5 –3 –3 3 –6
General outlook –13 –4 –1 –6 –6
Information and communication (24%)
Composite indicator 100 102 102 100 101
Past activity 8 3 5 –10 3
Expected activity 9 1 5 1 7
Expected demand 10 10 4 –1 2
Past employment 6 16 18 12 10
Expected employment 11 13 13 13 12
General outlook 0 3 3 4 2
Real estate activities (13%)
Composite indicator 100 89 85 88 89
Past activity 7 2 –1 5 8
Expected activity 7 –2 –7 –6 –8
Expected demand 2 5 0 3 6
Past employment 3 –6 –3 2 2
Expected employment 3 3 11 6 7
General outlook –3 –15 –17 –16 –18
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 110 109 105 108
Past activity –1 6 7 7 8
Expected activity –2 6 2 0 5
Expected demand –5 4 3 –1 –1
Past employment 1 6 10 4 12
Expected employment 0 10 11 12 10
General outlook –9 3 4 –3 0
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 112 110 108 107
Past activity 6 24 14 11 16
Expected activity 5 15 17 10 9
Expected demand 3 15 13 11 9
Past employment 10 13 0 6 12
Expected employment 8 33 23 22 13
General outlook –4 11 10 9 6
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

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