24 May 2018
2018- n° 134In May 2018, the French business climate and the employment climate continue to get
less bright Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - May 2018
In May 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly for the fifth consecutive month, while remaining at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points from the previous month. At 106, it has returned to its level of June 2017, well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost six points in wholesale trade, four points in services, one point in retail trade; it is stable in building construction and in manufacturing industry. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The French business climate weakens in May
In May 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly for the fifth consecutive month, while remaining at a high level. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points from the previous month. At 106, it has returned to its level of June 2017, well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost six points in wholesale trade, four points in services, one point in retail trade; it is stable in building construction and in manufacturing industry. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate is slightly less favourable
In May 2018, the employment climate has weakened slightly but remains at a high level. The associated composite indicator has lost one point compared to April. It stands at 107, well above its long-term average. This decrease mainly comes from a decline in the balances of opinion on past workforce size in service sector excluding temporary employment and on expected workforce size in retail trade.
Revisions
Compared to their first estimates in April 2018, the composite indicators for the building construction and for retail trade have been raised by one point, the employment climate has been lowered by one point. Compared to its first estimate in March 2018, the composite indicator for wholesale trade has been raised by one point. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.
graphiqueGraph 1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable 1 – Business and employment climates
| Jan. 18 | Feb. 18 | March 18 | April 18 | May 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 111 | 110 | 109 | 108 | 106 |
| Manufacturing | 114 | 112 | 110 | 109 | 109 |
| Building | 108 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Services | 109 | 107 | 107 | 107 | 103 |
| Retail trade | 114 | 115 | 113 | 111 | 110 |
| Wholesale trade | 107 | - | 110 | - | 104 |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 109 | 110 | 111 | 108 | 107 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator stands in the uncertainty area
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable 2 – Turning point indicators
| Jan. 18 | Feb. 18 | March 18 | April 18 | May 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.8 | –0.4 | –0.2 | –0.1 | –0.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.9 | 0.7 | –0.6 | –0.5 | –0.2 |
| Building | 0.1 | –0.8 | –0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Services | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | –0.4 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.5 | - | 0.6 | - | –0.8 |
- Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph 3 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1) the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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