In March 2018, consumer prices rose by 1.0% over one month and by 1.6% year on yearConsumer price index - final results - March 2018

In March 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased by 1.0% over one month, after a stability in February. This rise came from a rebound in “manufactured product” prices after the end of winter sales (+2.1% after −0.3%) and in food prices (+0.4% after −0.1%). Furthermore, tobacco prices rose markedly (+13.2%) and those of services accelerated over one month (+0.4% after +0.1% in February). On the other hand, energy prices sharply fell back (−0.7%) in the wake of petroleum product prices.

Informations rapides
No 96
Paru le : 12/04/2018
Prochaine parution le : 12/07/2018 at 08:45 - June 2018

Monthly change: 1.0% in March; Year-on-year change: +1.6%

In March 2018, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased by 1.0% over one month, after a stability in February. This rise came from a rebound in “manufactured product” prices after the end of winter sales (+2.1% after −0.3%) and in food prices (+0.4% after −0.1%). Furthermore, tobacco prices rose markedly (+13.2%) and those of services accelerated over one month (+0.4% after +0.1% in February). On the other hand, energy prices sharply fell back (−0.7%) in the wake of petroleum product prices.

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices recovered by +0.5%, after a 0.3% downturn in February.

Year on year, consumer prices sharply accelerated in March 2018: +1.6% after +1.2%. This increase in the year-on-year inflation resulted from a sharper rise in prices of services, food and tobacco. On the other hand, energy prices slightly slowed down and those of “manufactured product” fell back.

Slight rise in core inflation year on year

In March 2018, the core inflation index (ISJ) rebounded to 0.3% after −0.4% in February. Year on year, core inflation barely rose: +0.9% after +0.8% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 1.1% after a stability in February; year on year, it grew by 1.7%, after +1.3% in the previous month.

Acceleration in services prices

Year on year, services prices accelerated: +1.4% after +1.1% in February. This stronger rise was due to a sharp acceleration in accommodation services prices (+5.6% year on year after +0.1%) and package holidays prices (+16.2% after +0.6%), owing to the shift of February school holidays. Moreover, transport prices were more dynamic than in February (+1.1% after +0.4%). The decline in communication services prices was less strong in March than in the previous month (−0.5% year on year after −0.9%). Health services prices rose by 2.0%, as in the previous month.

Table1 – Detailed figures for various groups

2015: 100
Detailed figures for various groups
Items Weight Index Percentage change
2018 March 2018 m-on-m change(2) y-on-y change(3)
a) All households
Overall 10000 102.75 1.0 1.6
Overall SA(1) 10000 102.62 0.5 1.6
Food 1627 102.66 0.4 1.5
Fresh food 243 109.91 1.6 2.8
Other food 1384 101.49 0.1 1.2
Tobacco 193 119.92 13.2 16.6
Manufactured products 2594 99.35 2.1 −0.3
Clothing and footwear 416 102.81 12.8 −0.5
Medical products 425 93.12 −0.3 −2.4
Other manufactured products 1753 100.08 0.6 0.3
Energy 777 109.50 −0.7 5.0
Petroleum products 408 114.20 −0.6 8.1
Services 4809 102.95 0.4 1.4
Actual rentals and services for dwellings 764 101.67 0.0 0.6
Health services 617 102.65 0.0 2.0
Transport 282 98.66 −0.2 1.1
Communication 223 99.13 0.4 −0.5
Other services 2923 104.09 0.7 1.8
Total except rents and tobacco 9192 102.53 0.8 1.3
Total except tobacco 9807 102.42 0.8 1.3
b) Urban working-class households or households of employees
All products excluding tobacco 9706 102.27 0.8 1.2
c) Households that belong to the lowest equivalized disposable income quintile - France
All products excluding tobacco 9700 102.10 0.7 1.2
  • (1) seasonally adjusted
  • (2) [m/(m-1)]
  • (3) [m/(m-12)]
  • Geographical coverage: France excluding Mayotte
  • Source: INSEE - Consumer Price Indices

Marked acceleration in food and tobacco prices

In March 2018, food prices rose, year on year, at a stronger pace than in February (+1.5% after +0.8%). The prices of fresh products sharply recovered after a ponctual drop in February (+2.8% year on year after −1.3%), in line with a marked rebound in fresh vegetable prices (+4.2% year on year after −5.6%) and in fresh fish prices (+1.0% after −1.2%). Excluding fresh products, food prices were up by 1.2% year on year, as in February.

Tobacco prices accelerated dramatically in March (+16.6% year on year after +4.9%): over one month, they grew by 13.2% after a taxation increase.

Fall in energy inflation

Energy infation slightly dropped in March 2018 (+5.0% year on year after +5.2%), because of a sharp slowdown in gas prices (+0.8% year on year after +6.1%) due to a marked monthly downturn (−2.7%). On the other hand, the prices of petroleum products were more dynamic than in February:+8.1% year on year after +7.1%, the monthly drop in prices being less pronounced this year (−0.6% against −1.6% in March 2017).

Downturn in manufactured products prices

Year on year, “manufactured product” prices dropped by 0.3% in March 2018 after a very slight increase in February (+0.1%). This downturn came from these in clothing and footwear prices (−0.5% year on year after +1.1%), the rebound after the winter sales being less pronounced this year in clothing prices (+13.3% against +15.3% in March 2017) and in footwear prices (+10.4% against +13.2%). The prices of “other manufactured products” increased by 0.3% year on year, as in the three previous months. Those of equipment for sport (−0.6% after +0.9%) edged down after a higher rise in the previous month and the furniture prices slowed down (+0.2% year on year after +0.4%). On the other hand, the drop in information-processing equipment prices (−3.6% after −4.9%) and in phone prices (−4.0% after −5.9%) were less strong, due to the end of winter sales. Moreover, heatlh product prices dropped at the same pace as in February (−2.4% year on year).

Graph1 – Consumer Price Index (CPI), core inflation (ISJ) (1) and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (2) year-on-year changes

Table2 – Detailed figures for Core inflation(1) and HICP(2)

2015: 100
Detailed figures for Core inflation(1) and HICP(2)
Items Weight Index Percentage change
2018 March 2018 m-on-m change(3) y-on-y change(4)
Core inflation - All items 6041 101.78 0.3 0.9
Food excluding fresh products, meat, milk and exotic products 740 101.03 0.1 0.7
Manufactured products 2125 99.74 0.0 0.1
Services including actual rentals and services for dwellings 3176 103.34 0.5 1.5
HICP - All items 103.22 1.1 1.7
  • (1) Core inflation indicator excludes public sector prices, the most volatile consumer prices and the tax measures. Seasonally adjusted, this index is calculated for all households in France excluding overseas departments and territories. (in French “indice d'inflation sous-jacent - ISJ”)
  • (2) HICP: Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices are inflation figures designed for international comparison between Member states of the European Union. This index is calculated for all households in France excluding Mayotte.
  • (3) [m/(m-1)]
  • (4) [m/(m-12)]
  • Source: INSEE - Consumer Price Indices

Revisions

Compared with the provisional estimates published on March 30, 2018, the month-on-month change in the CPI is unchanged and the year-on-year change is up by 0.1points. The month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the HICP are confirmed.