22 March 2018
2018- n° 77In March 2018, the business climate improves in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - March 2018
According to the managers surveyed in March 2018, the business climate has improved in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has recovered by two points compared to January 2018. At 109, it remains significantly above its long-term average (100), that it has exceeded since January 2017. Moreover, it has been raised in January by one point because of late businesses' answers which have been taken into account.
- The balances concerning past activity have increased
- Better prospects for business with foreign countries
- The balances on employment remain above their average
- Price rises more often expected
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in March 2018, the business climate has improved in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has recovered by two points compared to January 2018. At 109, it remains significantly above its long-term average (100), that it has exceeded since January 2017. Moreover, it has been raised in January by one point because of late businesses' answers which have been taken into account.
graphiqueChart_1 – Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator remains into the area of favourable economic outlook.
graphiqueChart_2 – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between -0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
The balances concerning past activity have increased
More wholesalers than in January have indicated a rise in their past sales, in France and to export, as well as their received merchandise. They are as many concerning received merchandise from abroad. The four balances stand above their average.
Better prospects for business with foreign countries
The balance on ordering intentions is roughly stable. Those concerning expected orders from abroad or shipments abroad have picked up. However, the balance on general business outlook has declined. Each of these four balances remains above its mean level.
The balances on employment remain above their average
The balance of opinion concerning past workforce has slightly decreased, the one on expected employment is stable. Both stay above their mean level.
Price rises more often expected
Fewer wholesalers than in January have declared rises in past prices, but more of them have expected increases for the next months. The two balances stand below their average.
tableauTable_1 – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | Sept. 17 | Nov; 17 | Jan. 18 | Feb. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 111 | 107 | 109 |
| General business outlook | –23 | 11 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| Sales | –14 | –8 | –5 | –9 | –4 |
| export sales | –15 | –6 | –9 | –16 | –6 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –4 | –3 | –3 | –1 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –1 | –3 | –7 | –7 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –6 | –1 | –6 | –5 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –6 | –1 | –11 | –7 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –7 | –2 | –8 | –4 |
| Current stock | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Past workforce | –1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Cash position | –9 | –5 | –2 | –4 | –4 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | –5 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
- *: average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
The balances of opinion on past sales, exports and imports have rallied. The one about ordering intentions has recovered a little. Only the balance about exports has returned above its average, the others remain below.
Food products and beverages
In the food wholesaling sector, the balances concerning past sales in France and to export have gone up, the one on ordering intentions has risen slightly. These three balances stand either at their average, or below. Conversely, the balance concerning imports has declined again and stands at a very low level.
Household goods
In wholesale trade of household goods, more managers than in January have declared a rise in their past activity, in France and with foreign countries, as well as an increase in their expected orders. The balance about exports has significantly rebounded from its average, the three others remain above their mean level.
Capital goods in information and communication
The balance concerning past sales has sharply recovered and has exceeded its average. Those about activity abroad have fallen back. The balance on ordering intentions has decreased again but stays above its average.
Other industrial capital goods
In that type of wholesale trade, the three balances concerning past sales, merchandise received from abroad and ordering intentions have diminished. The one about export sales has moderately rallied. All four remain significantly above their mean level.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, the balance on past sales is practically stable; the one concerning exports has rebounded while the one about merchandise received from abroad has decreased. Ordering intentions have been estimated on the rise. These four balances remain above their average.
graphiqueChart_3 – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableauTable_2 – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | Sept. 17 | Nov; 17 | Jan. 18 | Feb. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –18 | –17 | –20 | –16 |
| Export sales | –16 | –17 | –9 | –37 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –5 | –14 | –26 | –22 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –8 | –7 | –16 | –14 |
| Current stock | 5 | –1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –9 | –7 | –15 | –4 |
| Export sales | –12 | 2 | –8 | –18 | –12 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | 1 | 2 | –20 | –22 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –7 | –4 | –4 | –2 |
| Current stock | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –13 | –9 | –9 | –7 |
| Export sales | –11 | –5 | –4 | –11 | 5 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –5 | 3 | –4 | 0 | 6 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –9 | –4 | –4 | –2 |
| Current stock | 12 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –1 | –7 | –14 | 1 |
| Export sales | –13 | –37 | –20 | 1 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –11 | –12 | 6 | 1 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –3 | 3 | –4 | –7 |
| Current stock | 8 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –2 | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| Export sales | –21 | –6 | –10 | –10 | –7 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | –1 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –7 | 1 | –2 | –5 |
| Current stock | 11 | 13 | 14 | 18 | 17 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –5 | 6 | –4 | –5 |
| Export sales | –19 | –5 | –6 | –14 | –5 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –12 | –3 | 2 | –2 | –5 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –4 | 6 | –6 | –3 |
| Current stock | 6 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
- *: average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
