22 February 2018

2018- n° 43

In February 2018, the business climate in services falters again Monthly survey of services - February 2018

According to business managers surveyed in February 2018, the business climate in services is less favourable than the previous month. The business climate composite indicator has lost three points after a first decline of two points last month. However, at 106, it remains well above its long-term average (100).

The turning point indicator has moved into the area indicating an uncertain short-term economic situation for the first time since November 2016.

The balances of opinion on past and expected activity, expected demand and on general outlook have decreased in February. The balance on expected activity has even moved back below its long-term average. Nevertheless, the other balances remain clearly above their average.

Concerning the employment in services including temporary work agencies, the balance of opinion on past employment has increased and exceeds its average level even more. By contrast, that on expected employment has decreased again. However, the corresponding balance of opinion is still above its average.

The balances of opinion on investments have risen, the one on expected investments returning above its long-term average.

The business climate composite indicator has decreased in information-communication, in professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support service activities. It has improved only in road transport. Nevertheless, the business climate remains over its long-term average in each sub- sector, except in real estate activities where it stands significantly below its average.

In road transport, the climate indicator has bounced back. At 114, it stands markedly above its average level. The balances on expected activity and demand have increased sharply; the latter one has even reached a record level. The balance on expected employment has gone down steeply but remains above its average.

The climate in accommodation and food services is virtually stable in February, at a high level (112). The decrease in the balance on expected demand has been almost offset by the rise in the one on past employment. All balances are above their long-term average.

In information and communication, the business climate has weakened for the second consecutive month, losing three points in February (102). The balances on past and expected activity and on expected demand have fallen significantly and stand at or above their long-term mean from now on. However, the balances of opinion on general outlook and on expected employment have slightly increased.

In February, the business climate is stable in real estate activity (85) after a fall last month due to the sub-sector of housing rental. However, the business managers have been less pessimistic concerning their expected activity, whereas the balances on general outlook and expected demand have decreased.

The business climate in professional, scientific and technical activities has lost three points (108) but remains well above its average level. The balances of opinion on general outlook, activity and expected demand have decreased. However, all the balances are above their long-term average.

After a rise for six months in a row, the business climate has lost three points in administrative and support service activities. This decline is due to the decrease in the balances on general outlook and expected demand, activity and employment. Nevertheless, at 110, it stands well above its average.