Insee conjoncture

French GDP increased by 0.6% in Q4 2017Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2017

In Q4 2017, GDP in volume terms* increased again: +0.6%, after +0.5% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP accelerated markedly: +1.9% after +1.1% in 2016.

Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated slightly (+1.1% after +0.9%) while household consumption expenditure slowed down (+0.3% after +0.6%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed to GDP growth by +0.5 points in Q4 2017 (after +0.6 points).

Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after −0.5 points): exports accelerated markedly (+2.6% after +1.1%) while imports slowed down sharply (+0.7% after +2.4%). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively (−0.5 points after +0.3 points).

Informations rapides N° 23
No 23
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 30/01/2018
Prochaine parution le : 30/01/2019 at 07:30 - fourth quarter 2018

Edited version on 1 February 2018: the contribution of foreign trade on GDP growth in 2017 was −0.3 points (instead of −0.4 as published on 30 January 2018).

In Q4 2017, GDP in volume terms* increased again: +0.6%, after +0.5% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP accelerated markedly: +1.9% after +1.1% in 2016.

Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated slightly (+1.1% after +0.9%) while household consumption expenditure slowed down (+0.3% after +0.6%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed to GDP growth by +0.5 points in Q4 2017 (after +0.6 points).

Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after −0.5 points): exports accelerated markedly (+2.6% after +1.1%) while imports slowed down sharply (+0.7% after +2.4%). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively (−0.5 points after +0.3 points).

*This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph – GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Tab1 – GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components: chain-linked volumes
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 2017
GDP 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.9
Imports 1.0 0.0 2.4 0.7 4.2 4.3
Household consumption *expenditure 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 2.1 1.3
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.2 1.5
GFCF 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.1 2.7 3.7
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 2.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 3.4 4.3
Households 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 2.4 5.1
General government -0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.8
Exports -0.7 2.2 1.1 2.6 1.9 3.5
Contributions:        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 2.0 1.9
Inventory changes 0.6 -0.5 0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.4
Net foreign trade -0.5 0.6 -0.5 0.6 -0.8 -0.3
  • Source: INSEE

Total production kept on increasing

In Q4 2017, total production accelerated slightly in Q4 (+0.8% after +0.7%), mainly due to manufactury industry (+1.5% after +0.8%). In contrast, energy production weakened a little. In services, production rose overall again (+0.7% after +0.6%).

On average over the year, total production sped up (+2.3% after +0.9%), in particular in manufacturing industry (+2.0% after +0.8%) and in construction. Agricultural production also recovered (+2.3% after −5.6%), after the adverse weather conditions in 2016.

Tab2 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 2017
Production of branches 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.3
Goods 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.2 1.9
Manufactured Industry 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.8 2.0
Construction 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.4
Market services 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.8
Non-market services 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.3
Household consumption 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 2.1 1.3
Food products 0.3 0.6 -0.5 0.4 0.9 0.8
Energy -2.8 0.3 1.5 -0.9 2.1 -0.1
Engineered goods -0.1 0.6 1.2 -0.1 2.4 1.7
Services 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.6 1.8
GFCF 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.1 2.7 3.7
Manufactured goods 1.9 0.6 1.3 1.9 6.1 2.1
Construction 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 2.5
Market services 2.7 1.3 1.0 1.5 3.9 6.2
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption slowed down

In Q4 2017, household consumption slowed down (+0.3% after +0.6%). Consumption of services grew at the same pace as in the previous quarter (+0.6%), while expenditure in goods declined slightly (−0.1% after +0.6% in Q2 and Q3).

Energy consumption declined (−0.9% after +1.5%), mainly because of temperatures lower than the seasonal norms in Q3. Expenditure on engineered goods slowed down (−0.1% after +1.2%), notably because of a sharp slowdown in equipment goods and a downturn in other industrial goods.

On average over the year, household consumption slowed down in 2017 (+1.3% after +2.1%), mainly because of a marked slowdown in goods.

Tab3 – Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 2017 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFCs* (level) 31.6 31.8 31.7   31.8
Households' purchasing power 0.2 0.8 0.5   1.8 1.6
  • *NFCs: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016 2017 (ovhg)
HDI 0.7 0.6 0.6   1.7 2.4
Household purchasing power 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.8 1.6
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.4 1.2
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.7 1.6
Saving rate (level) 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.0
Financial saving rate (level) 4.5 4.7 4.6   4.7
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Corporate investment accelerated

Total GFCF accelerated in Q4 2017 (+1.1% after +0.9%). Investment in construction rose again (+0.4% after +0.5%); it remained dynamic in the building sector but decreased in public works. GFCF in manufactured goods sharply accelerated (+1.9% after +1.3%), particularly in transport equipment. Investment in tradable services also remained dynamic (+1.5% after +1.0%), notably in the information-communication sector (softwares publishing).

All in all, non-financial corporations investment accelerated over the past quarter (+1.5% after +1.1%), while household investment slowed down a little (+0.7% after +1.0%).

Over the year 2017, total GFCF accelerated sharply: +3.7% after +2.7%.

Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016
Profit share 31.6 31.8 31.7   31.8
Investment ratio 23.7 23.7 23.8   23.3
Savings ratio 19.7 19.8 20.0   19.7
Self-financing ratio 83.2 83.4 83.8   84.3
  • Source: INSEE

Foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth

In Q4 2017, exports accelerated (+2.6% after +1.1%), because of sales of transport equipment. At the same time, imports significantly decelerated (+0.7% after +2.4%), mainly because of a sharp decline in transport equipment. All in all, foreign trade balance contributed to GDP growth by +0.6 points (after −0.5 points).

On average over the year, exports considerably accelerated (+3.5% after +1.9% in 2016) while imports progressed virtually at the same pace than in 2016 (+4.3% after +4.2%). As a consequence, the weight of foreign trade balance on GDP growth was lesser in 2017 than in 2016 (−0.3 points after −0.8 points).

Changes in inventories weighed on GDP growth

In Q4 2017, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.5 points after +0.3 points). This decrease is mainly due to transport equipment (notably aeronautics).

On average over the year, the contribution of changes in inventories to the activity stood at +0.4 points (after −0.1 points).

Tab6 – Expenditure. receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure. receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2016
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 316.9 318.0 321.4   1256.9
Total receipts 299.9 303.4 304.9   1181.1
Net lending (+) or borrowing (−) −17.0 −14.6 −16.5   −75.8
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (−) −3.0 −2.6 −2.9   −3.4
  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)