21 December 2017
2017- n° 340In December 2017, the French business climate improves again and the employment climate
remains favourable Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - December 2017
In December 2017, the business climate has improved again. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point. At 112, it has returned to its December 2007 level, well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has increased by two points in building construction, at a level unseen since September 2008, as well as in services, at an unprecedented level since April 2011. It has lost one point in manufacturing industry and in retail trade, while remaining well above its long-term mean in both sectors.
The French business climate at a 10-year high
In December 2017, the business climate has improved again. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point. At 112, it has returned to its December 2007 level, well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has increased by two points in building construction, at a level unseen since September 2008, as well as in services, at an unprecedented level since April 2011. It has lost one point in manufacturing industry and in retail trade, while remaining well above its long-term mean in both sectors.
The employment climate remains favourable
In December 2017, the employment climate is stable. The decrease in the balances of opinion on past workforce size in retail trade and service sector excluding temporary employment has been offset by a heightened optimism concerning past and expected workforce size in the temporary employment sector and in building construction. The associated composite indicator stands at 108 for the third consecutive month, clearly above its long-term mean and at its highest level since the summer of 2011.
Revisions
Compared to its first estimate, the employment climate indicator in November 2017 has been lowered by one point. The composite indicator in manufacturing industry has been raised by one point for the same month. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.
graphiqueGraph1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph3 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable1 – Business and employment climates
| Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | Oct. 17 | Nov. 17 | Dec. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 109 | 109 | 109 | 111 | 112 |
| Manufacturing | 111 | 111 | 111 | 113 | 112 |
| Building | 104 | 104 | 105 | 107 | 109 |
| Services | 106 | 108 | 107 | 109 | 111 |
| Retail trade | 108 | 112 | 113 | 116 | 115 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 109 | - | 111 | - |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 105 | 107 | 108 | 108 | 108 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook, where it has been since April 2017.
tableauTable2 – Turning point indicators
| Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | Oct. 17 | Nov. 17 | Dec. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Building | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Services | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 0.9 | - | 0.9 | - |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph2 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko )
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