In December 2017, the French business climate improves again and the employment climate remains favourableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - December 2017

In December 2017, the business climate has improved again. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point. At 112, it has returned to its December 2007 level, well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has increased by two points in building construction, at a level unseen since September 2008, as well as in services, at an unprecedented level since April 2011. It has lost one point in manufacturing industry and in retail trade, while remaining well above its long-term mean in both sectors.

Informations rapides
No 340
Paru le : 21/12/2017
Prochaine parution le : 26/01/2018 at 08:45 - January 2018

The French business climate at a 10-year high

In December 2017, the business climate has improved again. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point. At 112, it has returned to its December 2007 level, well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has increased by two points in building construction, at a level unseen since September 2008, as well as in services, at an unprecedented level since April 2011. It has lost one point in manufacturing industry and in retail trade, while remaining well above its long-term mean in both sectors.

The employment climate remains favourable

In December 2017, the employment climate is stable. The decrease in the balances of opinion on past workforce size in retail trade and service sector excluding temporary employment has been offset by a heightened optimism concerning past and expected workforce size in the temporary employment sector and in building construction. The associated composite indicator stands at 108 for the third consecutive month, clearly above its long-term mean and at its highest level since the summer of 2011.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate, the employment climate indicator in November 2017 has been lowered by one point. The composite indicator in manufacturing industry has been raised by one point for the same month. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.

Graph1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph3 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Aug. 17 Sept. 17 Oct. 17 Nov. 17 Dec. 17
Business climates
France 109 109 109 111 112
Manufacturing 111 111 111 113 112
Building 104 104 105 107 109
Services 106 108 107 109 111
Retail trade 108 112 113 116 115
Wholesale trade - 109 - 111 -
Employment climate
Employment 105 107 108 108 108
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook, where it has been since April 2017.

Table2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Aug. 17 Sept. 17 Oct. 17 Nov. 17 Dec. 17
France 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
Manufacturing 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7
Building 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8
Services 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.9
Wholesale trade - 0.9 - 0.9 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph2 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)