In October 2017, the French business climate falters slightly and the employment climate rises againBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - October 2017

In October 2017, the business climate has weakened slightly after a steady improvement for a year. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point (109) after eight months of rise. It has returned to its August 2017 level, well above its long-term mean. In October, it has increased by one point in retail trade, to an unprecedented level since January 2008, and in building construction. It is stable in manufacturing industry for the third month in a row. It has lost one point in services. The business climate of each sector stands clearly above its long-term mean.

Informations rapides
No 279
Paru le : 24/10/2017
Prochaine parution le : 23/11/2017 at 08:45 - November 2017

The French business climate has weakened slightly in October 2017

In October 2017, the business climate has weakened slightly after a steady improvement for a year. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost one point (109) after eight months of rise. It has returned to its August 2017 level, well above its long-term mean. In October, it has increased by one point in retail trade, to an unprecedented level since January 2008, and in building construction. It is stable in manufacturing industry for the third month in a row. It has lost one point in services. The business climate of each sector stands clearly above its long-term mean.

The employment climate has risen again

In October 2017, the employment climate has risen for the second consecutive month, mainly because of the rise in the balance of opinion on expected employment in service sectors excluding temporary employment. The associated composite indicator has gained two points to 109, clearly above above its long-term mean.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimates, the business climate indicators have been raised by one point in the whole economy and in manufacturing industry in September 2017. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.

The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Graph 1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator

Graph 3 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. −1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Table 1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
June 17 July 17 Aug. 17 Sept. 17 Oct. 17
Business climates
France 107 108 109 110 109
Manufacturing 109 108 111 111 111
Building 104 105 104 104 105
Services 103 104 107 108 107
Retail trade 111 111 108 112 113
Wholesale trade - 110 - 109 -
Employment climate
Employment 109 107 105 107 109
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Table 2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
June 17 July 17 Aug. 17 Sept. 17 Oct. 17
France 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8
Manufacturing 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8
Building 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7
Services 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6
Wholesale trade - 0.9 - 0.9 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)