24 October 2017
2017- n° 278In October 2017, the business climate remains very favourable in retail trade and
in trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - October 2017
According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate remains very favourable in October. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point compared to September to reach 113, its highest point since the beginning of 2008. So it remains significantly above its long-term average (100), that it has reached or exceeded since February 2015.
According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate remains very favourable in October. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point compared to September to reach 113, its highest point since the beginning of 2008. So it remains significantly above its long-term average (100), that it has reached or exceeded since February 2015.
graphiqueChart_1 – Business climate synthetic indicator
Auspicious prospects
Almost as many managers as in September have declared a rise in their recent sales. The corresponding balance of opinion stays slightly above its long-term average. They continue to expect a sustained activity on the next months: the balance about ordering intentions is practically stable, the one concerning expected sales has risen again, both standing at a highest level since 2007. The balance on general business outlook has increased a little again and has reached its highest point since 2001.
Stocks have been considered slightly lower, the balancemoving below its mean level.
Many more traders than in September have expected rises in prices on the next months. The corresponding balance is higher than it has been since 2012.
tableauTable_1 – Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
| Ave. (1) | July 17 | Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | Oct. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 111 | 108 | 112 | 113 |
| General business outlook | –29 | –3 | –7 | –2 | 0 |
| Recent sales | –7 | 8 | 0 | –5 | –4 |
| Expected sales | –2 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 11 |
| Ordering intentions | –8 | 4 | –6 | 6 | 7 |
| Stocks | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –6 | –5 | –4 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –4 | –1 | –4 | 3 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –13 | –13 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –3 | –4 | –3 | –2 | –3 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueChart_2 – Recent sales and ordering intentions
The balances concerning employment stand at their average
The balances of opinion concerning past and expected employment are at their average on the whole survey scope. They stand just below their mean level in the retail trade alone. In motor car trade and repair, the balances on employment are stable or practically, above their average for both past and future workforce size.
In retail trade, the business climate is stable
In retail trade, the business climate is stable: the composite indicator that measures it remains at 106, above its average (100).
In non-specialised trade, the balance concerning recent sales is practically stable below its mean level. In specialised trade, this balance has recovered and has returned above its average.
Overall, more retailers than in September have expected a rise in their sales and in their orders. Each of the two balances has increased for the second month in a row, standing significantly above its average from now on.
Stocks have been estimated lower, now below their standard level.
The balance about expected prices has picked up and is higher than it has been since 2008.
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate remains very favourable
In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate remains very favourable: it has gained one point to a 10-year peak of 116. So it remains significantly above its average (100).
The balance concerning recent sales is stable and the one about expected sales has edged down. However, the balances on ordering intentions and general outlook have moderately risen. Each of the four balances has remained above its average, the last one having reached a record level since the beginning of the survey in the motor car trade sector (2003).
The balance on expected prices has increased and has exceeded its average more than in September.
graphiqueChart_3 – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueChart_4 – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
tableauTable_2 – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | July 17 | Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | Oct. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 104 | 103 | 106 | 106 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –29 | –4 | –9 | –4 | –3 |
| Recent sales | –6 | 6 | –6 | –8 | –6 |
| Expected sales | 0 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | 2 | –8 | 4 | 6 |
| Stocks | 10 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 7 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –6 | –7 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –5 | –2 | –6 | 2 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –11 | –12 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –6 | –4 | –2 | –3 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –1 | 25 | –2 | –4 | –5 |
| Expected sales | 6 | 21 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| Ordering intentions | 2 | 14 | –9 | 13 | 17 |
| Stocks | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –3 | –3 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –1 | –2 | –2 | 11 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –7 | –8 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –12 | –17 | –10 | –13 | –7 |
| Expected sales | –8 | –8 | 0 | –6 | –5 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –12 | –5 | –6 | –7 |
| Stocks | 13 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –10 | –12 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –10 | –2 | –10 | –8 |
| Cash position (2) | –22 | –17 | –19 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 115 | 114 | 115 | 116 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –28 | –1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| Recent sales | –8 | 13 | 15 | 2 | 2 |
| Expected sales | –6 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 15 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| Stocks | 15 | 21 | 18 | 18 | 19 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | –3 | 4 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Cash position (2) | –24 | –14 | –14 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –9 | –1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –7 | 6 | 0 | –1 | –2 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
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