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In September 2017, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate picks upBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - September 2017

In September 2017, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, is still at 109, well above its normal (100), an unprecedented level since April 2011. This month, the climate indicator has risen by four points in retail trade, to its highest level since December 2007. It has increased by one point in services, to an unprecedented level since June 2011. It is stable or virtually in manufacturing industry, wholesale trade and building construction, standing clearly above its long-term mean in each case.

Informations rapides N° 254
No 254
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 26/09/2017
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2018 at 08:45 - December 2018

In September 2017, the French business climate is stable at a high level

In September 2017, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, is still at 109, well above its normal (100), an unprecedented level since April 2011. This month, the climate indicator has risen by four points in retail trade, to its highest level since December 2007. It has increased by one point in services, to an unprecedented level since June 2011. It is stable or virtually in manufacturing industry, wholesale trade and building construction, standing clearly above its long-term mean in each case.

The employment climate has recovered to its level of July

After two consecutive months of decline, the employment climate has picked up in September 2017, mainly because of the rise in the balance of opinion on expected employment in service sectors excluding temporary employment. The associated composite indicator has gained two points to 107, returning to its July 2017 level, clearly above above its long-term mean.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimates, the business climate indicators have been raised by one point in services in August 2017 and in wholesale trade in July 2017. Those revisions result from the integration of late businesses' answers as well as, concerning wholesale trade, the update of seasonal coefficients and parameters of the composite indicator.

Graph1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph3 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
May 17 June 17 July 17 Aug. 17 Sept. 17
Business climates
France 105 107 108 109 109
Manufacturing 109 109 108 111 110
Building 103 104 105 104 104
Services 102 103 104 107 108
Retail trade 106 111 111 108 112
Wholesale trade 104 - 110 - 109
Employment climate
Employment 107 109 107 105 107
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Table2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
May 17 June 17 July 17 Aug. 17 Sept. 17
France 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9
Manufacturing 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9
Building 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6
Services 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0
Wholesale trade 0.8 - 0.9 - 0.9
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Graph2 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. −1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between −0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)