26 September 2017
2017- n° 253In September 2017, the business climate improves in retail trade and in trade and
repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - September 2017
According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has improved in September. The composite indicator that measures it has gained four points compared to August to reach 112, its higher point since the beginning of 2008. So it stays significantly above its long-term average (100), that it has reached or exceeded since February 2015.
According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has improved in September. The composite indicator that measures it has gained four points compared to August to reach 112, its higher point since the beginning of 2008. So it stays significantly above its long-term average (100), that it has reached or exceeded since February 2015.
graphiqueChart_1 – Business climate synthetic indicator
Very favourable business outlook
Fewer managers than in August have declared a rise in their recent sales. The corresponding balance of opinion has gone on declining while remaining above its average. On the other hand, their anticipations have got better: the balances concerning expected sales, ordering intentions and general business outlook have recovered and have exceeded more their mean level. The last one has reached its highest point for ten years.
Stocks have been still considered slightly above their standard level.
Practically as many traders as on the last interrogation have indicated rises in past prices. Fewer than in August have planned to rise their prices on the next three months: the associated balance has come back to its average. The cash position has been estimated rather easy since March 2017.
tableauTable_1 – Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
| Ave. (1) | June 17 | July 17 | Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 111 | 111 | 108 | 112 |
| General business outlook | –29 | –4 | –3 | –7 | –1 |
| Recent sales | –7 | –6 | 8 | 0 | –4 |
| Expected sales | –2 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| Ordering intentions | –8 | 0 | 4 | –6 | 5 |
| Stocks | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –6 | –5 | –4 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –3 | –4 | –1 | –3 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –13 | –13 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –3 | 0 | –4 | –3 | –3 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueChart_2 – Recent sales and ordering intentions
Balances concerning employment near average
The balances of opinion concerning past and expected employment are stable and virtually at their average, on the whole survey scope as especially in retail trade. In motor car trade and repair, the balance on past employment has increased slightly but the one about expected employment has declined a little; however both remain above their average.
In retail trade, the business climate improves again
In retail trade, the business climate has improved again: the composite indicator that measures it has gained three points, at 106, above its average (100).
The balance concerning recent sales is practically stable. In non-specialised trade, it remains just below its mean level; in specialised trade it is close to its average.
Overall, more retailers than in August have expected a rise in their sales and in their orders, each of the two corresponding balances standing above its average from now on.
Stocks have been estimated again at their standard level.
The balance about past prices is roughly stable and the one on expected prices has fallen. Both are close to stand near their mean level.
The cash situation has been estimated normal.
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate remains very favourable
In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate remains very favourable: it is practically stable, at 115, staying significantly above its average (100).
The balance concerning recent sales has significantly fallen back . However, optimism has increased for the next months, and the balances on expected sales, ordering intentions and general outlook have risen. Each of the four has remained above its average, the last one standing at its highest level for ten years.
The balance on past prices has increased and has exceeded its average. The one concerning expected prices is virtually stable, at its average.
The cash position has been estimated very easy since the end of 2016.
graphiqueChart_3 – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueChart_4 – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
tableauTable_2 – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | June 17 | July 17 | Aug. 17 | Sept. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 106 | 104 | 103 | 106 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –29 | –5 | –4 | –9 | –3 |
| Recent sales | –6 | –7 | 6 | –6 | –7 |
| Expected sales | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | –2 | 2 | –8 | 4 |
| Stocks | 10 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –6 | –7 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –5 | –5 | –2 | –5 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –11 | –12 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –1 | –6 | –4 | –4 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –1 | 5 | 25 | –2 | –3 |
| Expected sales | 6 | 12 | 21 | 1 | 17 |
| Ordering intentions | 1 | 7 | 14 | –9 | 12 |
| Stocks | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –3 | –3 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –1 | –1 | –2 | –2 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –7 | –8 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –12 | –21 | –17 | –10 | –11 |
| Expected sales | –8 | –2 | –8 | 0 | –5 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –13 | –12 | –5 | –5 |
| Stocks | 13 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –10 | –12 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –10 | –10 | –2 | –10 |
| Cash position (2) | –22 | –17 | –19 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 113 | 115 | 114 | 115 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –28 | –3 | –1 | 0 | 8 |
| Recent sales | –8 | –3 | 13 | 15 | 3 |
| Expected sales | –7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 15 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| Stocks | 15 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 19 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | –3 | 4 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Cash position (2) | –24 | –14 | –14 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –9 | 5 | –1 | 3 | 1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | –2 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
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