24 August 2017
2017- n° 219In August 2017, the French business climate keeps improving and the employment climate
falters again Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - August 2017
In August 2017, the business climate has improved for the fourth consecutive month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point again (109). It has reached an unprecedented level since April 2011. Its upward trend since the beginning of the year has been confirmed (+5 points since January). This month, the climate indicator has risen by two points in services, standing well above its long-term mean. It has increased by three points in manufacturing industry, to its highest level since December 2007. On the other hand, it has lost four points in retail trade, though remaining markedly above its long-term mean. It has edged down in building construction.
The French business climate has reached a level unseen since April 2011
In August 2017, the business climate has improved for the fourth consecutive month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point again (109). It has reached an unprecedented level since April 2011. Its upward trend since the beginning of the year has been confirmed (+5 points since January). This month, the climate indicator has risen by two points in services, standing well above its long-term mean. It has increased by three points in manufacturing industry, to its highest level since December 2007. On the other hand, it has lost four points in retail trade, though remaining markedly above its long-term mean. It has edged down in building construction.
The employment climate falters slightly again
As in July, the employment climate has slightly worsened in August 2017, mainly because of the service sectors excluding temporary employment, and despite the improvement in the balances of opinion on expected employment in retail trade and manufacturing industry. The associated composite indicator has lost two points to 105, coming back to its February 2017 level which was still clearly above its normal.
Revisions
Compared to its first estimate, the business climate indicator of July 2017 has been lowered by one point in manufacturing industry because of the integration of late businesses' answers.
graphiqueGraph 1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph 2 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable 1 – Business and employment climates
| April 17 | May 17 | June 17 | July 17 | Aug. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 104 | 105 | 107 | 108 | 109 |
| Manufacturing | 108 | 109 | 109 | 108 | 111 |
| Building | 100 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Services | 104 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 106 |
| Retail trade | 104 | 106 | 111 | 112 | 108 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 105 | - | 109 | - |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 107 | 107 | 109 | 107 | 105 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable 2 – Turning point indicators
| April 17 | May 17 | June 17 | July 17 | Aug. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Building | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Services | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Wholesale trade | - | 0.8 | - | 0.9 | - |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph 3 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1): favourable business climate (unfavourable), between +0.3 and –0.3: uncertainty area.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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