25 July 2017
2017- n° 193In July 2017, the French business climate improves again and the employment climate
weakens slightly Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - July 2017
In July 2017, the business climate has improved for the third consecutive month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point again (108). It stands well above its long-term average (100), to a level unprecedented for six years. This month, it has been up or is stable for each sector. It has risen by four points in wholesale trade, to its highest level since November 2007. It has increased by one point in building construction, to its highest level since September 2008, in retail trade to its highest level since December 2007, and in services. It has been stable in manufacturing industry since May 2017, at an unprecedented level for six years.
The French business climate goes up by one point again in July, to a level unseen for six years
In July 2017, the business climate has improved for the third consecutive month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point again (108). It stands well above its long-term average (100), to a level unprecedented for six years. This month, it has been up or is stable for each sector. It has risen by four points in wholesale trade, to its highest level since November 2007. It has increased by one point in building construction, to its highest level since September 2008, in retail trade to its highest level since December 2007, and in services. It has been stable in manufacturing industry since May 2017, at an unprecedented level for six years.
The employment climate weakens slightly
The employment climate has slightly faltered in July 2017, mainly because of the service sectors excluding temporary employment, without invalidating the ongoing upward trend since the beginning of 2015. The associated composite indicator has lost two points to 107, coming back to its May 2017 level.
Revisions
Compared to its first estimate, the business climate indicator of June 2017 has been raised by one point in the whole economy and in manufacturing, by two points in retail trade. The business climate indicator of May 2017 in wholesale trade has also been raised by one point. Those revisions result from the integration of late businesses' answers, as well as, concerning retail trade, the update of seasonal coefficients and parameters of the composite indicator.
graphiqueGraph1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph3 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable1 – Business and employment climates
| March 17 | April 17 | May 17 | June 17 | July 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 104 | 104 | 105 | 107 | 108 |
| Manufacturing | 106 | 108 | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Building | 100 | 100 | 103 | 104 | 105 |
| Services | 104 | 104 | 102 | 103 | 104 |
| Retail trade | 107 | 104 | 106 | 111 | 112 |
| Wholesale trade | 103 | - | 105 | - | 109 |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 109 | 107 | 107 | 109 | 107 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook.
tableauTable2 – Turning point indicators
| March 17 | April 17 | May 17 | June 17 | July 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Manufacturing | –0.7 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Building | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Services | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.8 | - | 0.8 | - | 0.9 |
- Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph2 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1): favourable business climate (unfavourable). between +0.3 and –0.3: uncertainty area.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
