In July 2017, the French business climate improves again and the employment climate weakens slightlyBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - July 2017

In July 2017, the business climate has improved for the third consecutive month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point again (108). It stands well above its long-term average (100), to a level unprecedented for six years. This month, it has been up or is stable for each sector. It has risen by four points in wholesale trade, to its highest level since November 2007. It has increased by one point in building construction, to its highest level since September 2008, in retail trade to its highest level since December 2007, and in services. It has been stable in manufacturing industry since May 2017, at an unprecedented level for six years.

Informations rapides
No 193
Paru le : 25/07/2017
Prochaine parution le : 24/08/2017 at 08:45 - August 2017

The French business climate goes up by one point again in July, to a level unseen for six years

In July 2017, the business climate has improved for the third consecutive month. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has gained one point again (108). It stands well above its long-term average (100), to a level unprecedented for six years. This month, it has been up or is stable for each sector. It has risen by four points in wholesale trade, to its highest level since November 2007. It has increased by one point in building construction, to its highest level since September 2008, in retail trade to its highest level since December 2007, and in services. It has been stable in manufacturing industry since May 2017, at an unprecedented level for six years.

The employment climate weakens slightly

The employment climate has slightly faltered in July 2017, mainly because of the service sectors excluding temporary employment, without invalidating the ongoing upward trend since the beginning of 2015. The associated composite indicator has lost two points to 107, coming back to its May 2017 level.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate, the business climate indicator of June 2017 has been raised by one point in the whole economy and in manufacturing, by two points in retail trade. The business climate indicator of May 2017 in wholesale trade has also been raised by one point. Those revisions result from the integration of late businesses' answers, as well as, concerning retail trade, the update of seasonal coefficients and parameters of the composite indicator.

Graph1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph3 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
March 17 April 17 May 17 June 17 July 17
Business climates
France 104 104 105 107 108
Manufacturing 106 108 109 109 109
Building 100 100 103 104 105
Services 104 104 102 103 104
Retail trade 107 104 106 111 112
Wholesale trade 103 - 105 - 109
Employment climate
Employment 109 107 107 109 107
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Table2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
March 17 April 17 May 17 June 17 July 17
France 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.0
Manufacturing –0.7 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6
Building 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Services 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.9
Wholesale trade 0.8 - 0.8 - 0.9
  • Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys

Graph2 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. –1): favourable business climate (unfavourable). between +0.3 and –0.3: uncertainty area.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)