23 May 2017
2017- n° 138In May 2017, the business climate gets slightly better in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - May 2017
According to the managers surveyed in May 2017, the business climate sector has got slightly better in wholesale trade. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point compared to March 2017, standing at 104. It has been above its long-term average (100) since January 2017.
- Near stability of opinion on past activity
- Favourable activity forecast
- Expected employment is gradually improving
- More price falls reported
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in May 2017, the business climate sector has got slightly better in wholesale trade. The composite indicator that measures it has gained one point compared to March 2017, standing at 104. It has been above its long-term average (100) since January 2017.
graphiqueChart_1 – Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator has stayed into the area of favourable economic outlook.
graphiqueChart_2 – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively −1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between −0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
Near stability of opinion on past activity
The balance concerning past sales has barely changed, and, as the one on received merchandises, remains close to its average. The balances about activity with other countries have barely changed too since the beginning of the year and stand above their long-term mean level. Stocks have been estimated very low.
Favourable activity forecast
Concerning next months, wholesalers remain rather optimistic: the balances concerning ordering intentions, in France or abroad, are stable or roughly; the ones on shipments abroad and general business outlook have increased. These four balances remain above their average.
Expected employment is gradually improving
The balance of opinion concerning past workforce is practically stable, above its average. The one concerning expected workforce has increased gradually since September 2016 and is higher than it has been for sixteen years.
More price falls reported
As many wholesalers as in March have indicated a past rise in their prices. Slightly fewer of them have expected one for the next months. Both balances remain below their long-term average.
tableauTable_1 – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | Nov. 16 | Jan. 17 | Mar. 17 | May 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 98 | 103 | 103 | 104 |
| General outlook | –24 | –8 | –4 | –9 | –5 |
| Sales | –14 | –19 | –12 | –15 | –13 |
| export sales | –15 | –19 | –12 | –12 | –10 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –16 | –9 | –10 | –10 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –15 | –8 | –5 | –7 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –15 | –12 | –11 | –9 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –12 | –11 | –8 | –8 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –17 | –12 | –14 | –10 |
| Current stock | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Cash position | –10 | –4 | –5 | –5 | –4 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In this sector, fewer wholesalers than in March have declared a fall in their past activity, in France and abroad, and in their ordering intentions. The balances concerning foreign trade stand above their average, the others remain below.
Food products and beverages
In this sector, the balance concerning past sales has slightly progressed above its mean level, but both balances on past activity abroad have declined. The one about ordering intentions has increased and stands above its average.
Household goods
More wholesalers of the household goods sector than in March have indicated a decrease in their past sales in France, in their exports and in their imports. However as many of them have expected a rise in their orders, the corresponding balance staying above its average.
Capital goods in information and communication
In this sector, the balances on past sales and ordering intentions have been virtually stable above their mean level. The one concerning exportations has declined again and is lower than it has been for seven years. The one about importations has declined too, but stays above its average.
Other industrial capital goods
In the other industrial goods sector, the balances concerning past sales, in France and abroad, and ordering intentions have risen and are higher than they have been since 2011. Nevertheless, the one on merchandises received from abroad has fallen back and has gone closer to its average.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, more traders than in March have declared an increase in their past activity, in France and abroad. The balance on ordering intentions has faltered. Each of the four balances remain above its mean level.
graphiqueChart_3 – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableauTable_2 – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | Nov. 16 | Jan. 17 | Mar. 17 | May 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –40 | –37 | –36 | –28 |
| Export sales | –16 | –39 | –29 | –40 | –6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –32 | –15 | –7 | 3 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –42 | –45 | –28 | –22 |
| Current stock | 5 | –21 | –11 | –22 | –19 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –14 | –17 | –12 | –10 |
| Export sales | –12 | –14 | –6 | –3 | –13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –11 | –17 | –12 | –19 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –7 | –7 | –7 | –4 |
| Current stock | 5 | –3 | –6 | 5 | –1 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –12 | 1 | –16 | –18 |
| Export sales | –11 | –12 | –13 | 0 | –8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –12 | –4 | 0 | –6 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –11 | –8 | –9 | –9 |
| Current stock | 12 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –12 | –9 | –6 | –5 |
| Export sales | –13 | –4 | 7 | –22 | –34 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –11 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –9 | –4 | –1 | –2 |
| Current stock | 8 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –19 | –15 | –12 | –9 |
| Export sales | –21 | –26 | –19 | –13 | –8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –14 | –7 | –3 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –23 | –10 | –14 | –9 |
| Current stock | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –17 | –4 | –14 | –10 |
| Export sales | –19 | –15 | –7 | –17 | –9 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –15 | –3 | –11 | –5 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –10 | –6 | –8 | –10 |
| Current stock | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
