4 May 2017

2017- n° 122

In the manufacturing industry, business managers forecast a further increase in their investment in 2017 Industrial investment survey - April 2017

The business managers in industry surveyed in April 2017 stated that their investment increased by 4% in 2016 in nominal terms. For 2017, the business leaders in industry forecast a 6% increase in their investment spending compared with 2016.

Business managers in industry have upped by 1 point their January 2017 estimate whereas usually they maintain their forecast at that moment of the year (+0 point between 2005 and 2016). The upward revision is substential in the sector of electrical and electronic and machine equipment.

The estimate for 2017 might be revised during the next quarters: since 2004, the April forecast has overestimated by four points the actual investment growth finally observed in July the following year.

In April 2017, more business managers in industry reported a rise rather than a fall in their investment for H1 2017. The corresponding balance (+12) is close to the October estimate, above its long-term average (+6).

For H2 2017, business managers remain optimistic: the corresponding balance has increased by 5 points compared with October (to +11) and remains above its long-term average (+6).

In 2017, the purposes of investment should be quite similar to those of 2016. The current distribution is close to the average distribution observed since 1991. The share of investment devoted to replacement stays the most important. A quarter of investment should be used for modernising equipment, the share for energy savings remains slightly above its long-term average. On the other hand, the share of investment aimed at increasing productive capacity or introducing new products is likely to remain a little below its long-term average.

The balance of opinion about the change in productive capacity observed in 2016 (+35) is higher than last year estimate (+28) and above its long-term average. For 2017, business leaders are more numerous than in 2016 to anticipate an increase in the productive capacity: the balance of opinion has reached +31 and equals its long-terme average.