21 February 2017

2017- n° 42

In January 2017, consumer prices decreased by 0,2%; they rose by 1.3% year on year Consumer price index - final results - January 2017

In January 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) declined by 0.2% over a month after an increase by 0.3% in December. Seasonally adjusted, it grew by 0.7%, after +0.1% in December. Year on year, the CPI accelerated sharply (+1.3% after +0.6%). Inflation has reached its highest level since November 2012.

Over one month, the fall was due to the seasonal decline in manufactured product prices, essentially those of clothing and footwear. However, this decrease was less strong than in January 2016, mainly because winter sales started later this year. The overall drop was mitigated by the sharp acceleration in energy prices and, to a lesser extent, in food prices.

In January 2017, energy prices sped up strongly (+4.5%) after already four consecutive months of increase. Year on year, they strenghtened sharply (+10.3% after +4.3% in the previous month). It has been the strongest rise since November 2011.

This dynamism resulted mainly from a drastic rise in petroleum products prices (+7.5%; +19.9% year on year), due to a rebond in Brent crude and to higher taxation of energy products. Natural gas and city gas prices accelerated sharply too (+5.0% after +2.4%). Year on year, they went up for the first time since September 2015 (+1.6% after −2.2%). By contrast, electricity prices have been unchanged since September 2016 (−0.3% year on year).

In January 2017, the manufactured product prices declined seasonally (−2.4%), but less sharply than in January 2016 (−3.0%), notably because the winter sales began later this year. Year on year, the decline in prices eased (−0.3% after −1.0% in December). Over a month, clothing and footwear prices fell steeply (−12.4%). The winter sales contributed more moderately to the decrease in prices of many other products: household textiles (−5.2%; +0.8% year on year), equipment for sport (−3.1%; −1.6% year on year), and furniture and furnishings (−2.1%; −0.5% year on year).

In January 2017, food prices rose further (+0.4% after +0.1% in November and December). This increase was mainly due to a clear acceleration in fresh food prices (+2.8% after +0.9%). Excluding fresh products, food prices went up slightly (+0.1%), over a month as year on year.

In January 2017, the prices of services edged down slightly over one month (−0.1% after +0.4%); year on year they rose by 0.9%, as in the previous month. After the end-of-year holidays, tourism-related service prices fell back seasonally in January, particularly airfares (−11.8%; +0.7% year on year). Prices in communication services also diminished (−3.9%; −1.4% year on year) with the decrease in some packages prices. Conversely, as every year, many fees rose in January, in particular postal rates (+3.8%). Insurance fares also grew (+1.1%; +1.3% year-on-year), as the “tax attack” levied on insurance contracts has been raised.

In January 2017, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) picked up to +0.4% after a drop by 0.1% in December. Year-on-year, it gathered pace to +0.7% after +0.4% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell back by 0.3% over one month; year-on-year, it accelerated sharply: +1.6% after +0.8% in December.

Compared to the provisional estimates published on 31 January 2017, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI in January 2017 has been lowered by 0.1 points, whereas its month-on-month rate is unchanged. For the HICP, the monthly change is lowered by 0.1 points and the year-on-year change is confirmed.