French GDP increased by 0.4% in Q4 2016 and by +1.1% over the yearQuarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2016

In Q4 2016, GDP in volume terms* accelerated: +0.4%, after +0.2% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP kept rising, practically at the same pace: +1.1% after +1.2% in 2015. Without working day adjustment, GDP growth amounts to +1.2 % in 2016, after +1.3 % in 2015.

Informations rapides
No 27
Paru le : 31/01/2017
Prochaine parution le : 28/07/2017 at 07:30 - second quarter 2017

In Q4 2016, GDP in volume terms* accelerated: +0.4%, after +0.2% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP kept rising, practically at the same pace: +1.1% after +1.2% in 2015. Without working day adjustment, GDP growth amounts to +1.2 % in 2016, after +1.3 % in 2015.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated in Q4 (+0.6% after +0.1% in Q3 2016), as well as total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.8% after +0.3%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes gathered momentum, contributing more to GDP growth: +0.6 points after +0.2 points.

Exports were more dynamic (+1.1% after +0.5%) while imports slowed down (+0.8% after +2.5%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP growth: +0.1 points after −0.7 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively (−0.2 points after +0.7 points).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Tab1 – Goods and services: supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services: supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2015 2016
GDP 0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.1
Imports 0.6 -1.5 2.5 0.8 6.4 3.6
Household consumption *expenditure 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.5
GFCF 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 2.8
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 2.2 -0.1 0.1 1.3 2.7 4.3
Households 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.8 1.5
General government -0.9 -0.5 0.0 -1.1 -3.9 -0.7
Exports -0.3 0.0 0.5 1.1 6.0 0.9
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.9
Inventory changes -0.2 -0.8 0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.0
Net foreign trade -0.3 0.5 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.9
  • Source: Insee

Total production rose again

Total production in goods and services accelerated slightly in Q4 (+0.6% after +0.5%), thanks to a strong rebound in energy (+2.5% after −2.3%). It rose at the same pace as in Q3 in manufactury industry (+0.7%) and in market services (+0.6%). By contrast, activity in construction decelerated (+0.3% after +0.9%).

On average over the year, total production grew a little faster than in 2015 (1.4% after +1.3%): it recovered in construction (+0.7% after −2.2%), but it slowed down in energy (+1.2% after +1.8%) and in the manufacturing industry (+0.6% after +1.5%). Agricultural production decreased sharply (−5.7% after −2.2%), due to adverse weather conditions in the spring.

Tab2 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2015 2016
Production of branches 0.7 -0.2 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.4
Goods 0.2 -0.8 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.1
Manufactured Industry 0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.7 1.5 0.6
Construction 0.4 -0.3 0.9 0.3 -2.2 0.7
Market services 1.0 -0.1 0.6 0.6 1.8 2.1
Non-market services 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.3
Household consumption 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.8
Food products 0.4 -0.6 0.8 -0.4 1.2 0.7
Energy 2.4 1.7 -1.5 3.7 1.4 1.8
Engineered goods 2.3 0.2 -1.1 1.0 2.6 2.5
Services 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.5
GFCF 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 2.8
Manufactured goods 2.7 0.1 -2.3 1.8 2.1 6.0
Construction 0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.3 -2.2 0.9
Market services 1.2 0.0 1.4 0.8 4.4 3.3
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption grew anew

Household consumption accelerated in Q4 2016 (+0.6% after +0.1%). Expenditure in engineered goods bounced back (+1.0% after −1.1%), particularly in cars. Energy consumption recovered sharply (+3.7% after −1.5%), mainly due to gas and electricity, because temperatures were belowthe seasonal norms. In services, consumption kept on increasing at virtually the same pace (+0.3% after +0.4%).

On average over the year, household consumption rose more in 2016 (+1.8%) than in 2015 (+1.5%), notably backed by household expenditure in home equipment in the first half of 2016.

Household and corporateinvestment picked up sharply at end 2016

In Q4 2016, total GFCF accelerated (+0.8% after +0.3%), in particular that of households and non-financial corporations. Indeed, GFCF recovered in manufactured goods (+1.8% after −2.3%), mainly that in transport equipement. However, investment in market services (+0.8% after +1.4%) and in construction (+0.3% after +0.6%) slowed down, notably that in civil engineering.

Over the year 2016, total GFCF increased at a faster pace than in 2015: +2.8% after +0.9%.

Foreign tradebalance backed GDP growth at the end of the year but weighed down on it on average in 2016

In Q4 2016, exports accelerated (+1.1% after +0.5%), due in particular to the rebound in transport equipment. In the same time, imports decelerated (+0.8% after +2.5%). They notably slowed down in energy, water, waste and in manufactured goods. All in all, external exchanges provided a slight positive contribution to GDP growth in Q4 2016: +0.1 points after −0.7 points.

On average over the year 2016, imports slowed down (+3.6% after +6.4%), but much less than exports (+0.9% after +6.0%). Consequently, foreign balance contributed more negatively to GDP growth in 2016 than in 2015 (−0.9 points after −0.3 points).

Negative contribution of inventory changes in Q4

In Q4 2016, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.2 points after +0.7 points. It was mainly due to “other industrial products” (pharmacy, steel products, etc.). Over the year, the contribution of changes in inventories contribution on GDP growth was neutral, after +0.2 points in 2015.

Revisions

The estimate of GDP growth in Q3 2016 is confirmed at +0.2%. Slight revisions of different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to revisions of indicators and to updates of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Tab3 – Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2015 2016 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 32.0 31.5 31.4   31.4
Household purchasing power 0.6 0.2 0.6   1.6 1.9
  • *NFC: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2015 2016 (ovhg)
HDI 0.5 0.3 0.7   1.4 1.9
Household purchasing power 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.9
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.6 1.8
Saving rate (level) 14.4 14.5 15.0 14.5
Financial saving rate (level) 5.6 5.5 5.9   5.5
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), data WDA-SA
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2015
Profit share 32.0 31.5 31.4   31.4
Investment ratio 23.3 23.5 23.4   22.9
Savings ratio 21.2 20.5 20.4   19.7
Self-financing ratio 90.9 87.2 87.0   86.3
  • Source: INSEE

Tab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, data WDA-SA
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2015
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 313.2 314.8 316.8   1242.8
Total receipts 294.9 296.6 297.0   1166.3
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -18.4 -18.2 -19.8   -76.5
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -3.3 -3.3 -3.6   -3.5
  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)