31 January 2017

2017- n° 27

French GDP increased by 0.4% in Q4 2016 and by +1.1% over the year Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2016

In Q4 2016, GDP in volume terms* accelerated: +0.4%, after +0.2% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP kept rising, practically at the same pace: +1.1% after +1.2% in 2015. Without working day adjustment, GDP growth amounts to +1.2 % in 2016, after +1.3 % in 2015.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated in Q4 (+0.6% after +0.1% in Q3 2016), as well as total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.8% after +0.3%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes gathered momentum, contributing more to GDP growth: +0.6 points after +0.2 points.

Exports were more dynamic (+1.1% after +0.5%) while imports slowed down (+0.8% after +2.5%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP growth: +0.1 points after −0.7 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively (−0.2 points after +0.7 points).

Total production in goods and services accelerated slightly in Q4 (+0.6% after +0.5%), thanks to a strong rebound in energy (+2.5% after −2.3%). It rose at the same pace as in Q3 in manufactury industry (+0.7%) and in market services (+0.6%). By contrast, activity in construction decelerated (+0.3% after +0.9%).

On average over the year, total production grew a little faster than in 2015 (1.4% after +1.3%): it recovered in construction (+0.7% after −2.2%), but it slowed down in energy (+1.2% after +1.8%) and in the manufacturing industry (+0.6% after +1.5%). Agricultural production decreased sharply (−5.7% after −2.2%), due to adverse weather conditions in the spring.

Household consumption accelerated in Q4 2016 (+0.6% after +0.1%). Expenditure in engineered goods bounced back (+1.0% after −1.1%), particularly in cars. Energy consumption recovered sharply (+3.7% after −1.5%), mainly due to gas and electricity, because temperatures were belowthe seasonal norms. In services, consumption kept on increasing at virtually the same pace (+0.3% after +0.4%).

On average over the year, household consumption rose more in 2016 (+1.8%) than in 2015 (+1.5%), notably backed by household expenditure in home equipment in the first half of 2016.

In Q4 2016, total GFCF accelerated (+0.8% after +0.3%), in particular that of households and non-financial corporations. Indeed, GFCF recovered in manufactured goods (+1.8% after −2.3%), mainly that in transport equipement. However, investment in market services (+0.8% after +1.4%) and in construction (+0.3% after +0.6%) slowed down, notably that in civil engineering.

Over the year 2016, total GFCF increased at a faster pace than in 2015: +2.8% after +0.9%.

In Q4 2016, exports accelerated (+1.1% after +0.5%), due in particular to the rebound in transport equipment. In the same time, imports decelerated (+0.8% after +2.5%). They notably slowed down in energy, water, waste and in manufactured goods. All in all, external exchanges provided a slight positive contribution to GDP growth in Q4 2016: +0.1 points after −0.7 points.

On average over the year 2016, imports slowed down (+3.6% after +6.4%), but much less than exports (+0.9% after +6.0%). Consequently, foreign balance contributed more negatively to GDP growth in 2016 than in 2015 (−0.9 points after −0.3 points).

In Q4 2016, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.2 points after +0.7 points. It was mainly due to “other industrial products” (pharmacy, steel products, etc.). Over the year, the contribution of changes in inventories contribution on GDP growth was neutral, after +0.2 points in 2015.

The estimate of GDP growth in Q3 2016 is confirmed at +0.2%. Slight revisions of different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to revisions of indicators and to updates of seasonal adjustment coefficients.