In October 2016, the business climate declines slightly in servicesMonthly survey of services - October 2016

According to business managers surveyed in October 2016, the business climate in services has declined slightly. The composite indicator which measures it has decreased by one point (101) but remains slightly above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 274
Paru le : 25/10/2016
Prochaine parution le : 25/07/2017 at 08:45 - July 2017

According to business managers surveyed in October 2016, the business climate in services has declined slightly. The composite indicator which measures it has decreased by one point (101) but remains slightly above its long-term average (100).

Graph1 – Business climate composite indicator

The turning point indicator has deacreased slightly and stands in the unfavourable area.

Graph2 – Turning point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively −1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between +0.3 and −0.3: uncertainty area.

The expectations on activity and demand have declined

The balance of opinion on past activity is stable, below its long-term average. Slightly more business leaders than in September expect a decrease in activity and demand for the coming months. However, the balance of opinion on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector, has gone up; it stands above its long-term average.

The balance of opinion on the past operating balance is unchanged compared with July, close to its long-term average. The balance on expected operating result has increased and is now above its long-term average.

The balance on past employment has gone up, whereas that on expected employment has decreased slightly. Both balances stand clearly above their long-term average.

Table1 – Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector
Average* July 16 Aug. 16 Sept. 16 Oct. 16
Composite indicator 100 101 101 102 101
General outlook –8 –6 –8 –7 –5
Past activity 2 –2 0 –3 –3
Expected activity 2 1 1 2 –1
Expected demand –1 –1 –1 2 0
Past selling prices –4 –8 –4 –4 –6
Expected selling prices –3 –5 –6 –4 –7
Past employment 3 9 8 8 11
except temporary work agencies 1 3 2 3 4
Expected employment 2 9 10 11 9
except temporary work agencies –1 4 –1 6 5
Investments
Past investments 1 2 4 5 7
Expected investments 1 7 6 4 3
Operating balance result
Past result –2 –3 –3
Expected result –2 –2 2
Cash position –11 –9 –8
Difficulties of supply and demand
difficulties of supply and demand 10 10 9
difficulties of supply only 22 23 22
difficulties of demand only 32 34 35
Difficulties in recruitment 27 24 24
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
  • Source: Insee, business survey in services

In all sub-sectors, the business climates are virtually stable. The indicators stand close to their long-term average, except in road transport where it is above (104) and in accomodation and food service activities where it is below (97).

The business climate remains favourable in road transport

In road transport, the business climate is virtually stable in October (104), above its long-term average. In particular, the balances on past activity, expected employment and general outlook have increased and stand far above their long-term average.

The business climate remains deteriorated in accommodation and food service activities

In accommodation and food service activities, the business climate is almost unchanged (97), below its long-term average. The balances on activity have decreased, but those on employment have gone up. The balance on general outlook remains well below its long-term average.

In information and communication, the business climate remains close to the average

In information and communication, the business climate is virtually stable (101), slightly above its long-term average. The expectations on activity and demand have deteriorated; the balance on expected activity has deviated further from its long-term average. However, the balances on employment stand above their long-term average.

The real estate business climate is almost unchanged

In real estate, the business climate is almost unchanged (101), slightly above its long-term average. The balances on expected activity and employment have gone down but the balance on general outlook has improved markedly.

The business climate is virtually stable in professional, scientific and technical activities

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate is almost stable (99), close to its long-term average. The balances on past and expected activity have decreased slightly again and stand below their long-term average.

In administrative and support service activities, the business climate is steady

In administrative and support service activities, the business climate has been stable at 101 since July 2016, slightly above its long-term average. The balance on past activity is almost unchanged, below its long-term average. The balances on employment remain well above their long-term average, particularly because of temporary work agencies, despite a decrease in the balance on expected employment.

Table2 – Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* July 16 Aug. 16 Sept. 16 Oct. 16
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 104 103 103 104
Past activity –8 –9 –3 –4 –1
Expected activity –9 –3 –4 –8 –8
Expected demand –12 –1 –6 –6 –7
Past employment –8 –4 1 0 0
Expected employment –10 –10 –8 –4 0
General outlook –24 –13 –19 –13 –7
Accomodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 100 89 98 97
Past activity –7 –12 –14 –13 –15
Expected activity –8 –4 –18 –5 –8
Expected demand –10 –10 –19 –12 –11
Past employment –4 1 –5 –6 –2
Expected employment –6 2 –4 –1 0
General outlook –14 –20 –31 –23 –23
Information and communication (24%)
Composite indicator 100 98 100 102 101
Past activity 8 –20 1 –4 –4
Expected activity 9 4 8 5 –2
Expected demand 10 9 8 18 13
Past employment 6 4 4 3 11
Expected employment 10 10 9 18 18
General outlook 0 –1 0 –3 –1
Real estate activities (13%)
Composite indicator 100 102 103 102 101
Past activity 7 14 11 4 6
Expected activity 8 11 9 16 11
Expected demand 1 2 2 –1 0
Past employment 3 1 10 5 7
Expected employment 2 4 1 7 4
General outlook –2 0 1 –2 3
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 100 103 100 99
Past activity –1 4 –2 –3 –4
Expected activity –2 –3 0 –4 –6
Expected demand –6 –8 –2 –4 –7
Past employment 1 3 1 –3 –2
Expected employment 0 4 4 8 5
General outlook –9 –9 –5 –7 –5
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 101 101 101 101
Past activity 6 9 6 0 –1
Expected activity 5 –1 4 6 4
Expected demand 3 2 4 1 2
Past employment 9 26 20 23 27
Expected employment 7 19 25 22 17
General outlook –5 0 –5 –3 –2
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicators : average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion : average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, business survey in services.