12 October 2016

2016- n° 265

In September 2016, consumer prices decreased by 0.2% over a month; they rose by 0.4% year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - September 2016

In September 2016, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) dipped by 0.3% over a month, after a increase of 0.3% in August. Seasonally adjusted, it rose by 0.1%, after a slight fall in August. Year-on-year, the CPI grew by 0.4%, after +0.2% in the three previous months.

This month-on-month drop mainly came from the seasonal retreat in the prices of some tourism-related services after the summer school holiday period. Moreover, food prices diminished, especially fresh foodstuffs prices. Furthermore, a rebound in petroleum product prices after two months of decline, and a further rise in manufactured products prices mitigated the overall decrease.

Every year after the summer school holiday period, the prices of services went down in September. The downturn in September 2016 (−1.1%) was less sharp than in September 2015 (−1.6%). Year-on-year, prices increased by 1.2%. This month-on-month drop resulted chiefly from tourism-related services : airfares fell back (−18.2%; −5.1% year-on-year) as accomodation services prices (−18.2%; +2.3% year-on-year) and package holidays prices (−17%; +2.3% year-on-year). These decreases were partly offset by the increases, also seasonal, in some charges, in particular for canteens (+1.5%; +2.6% year-on-year). Moreover, the prices of communication services started to rise again (+0.8%; +3.3% year-on-year) after a stability in August.

In September 2016, food prices fell back (−0.5% after +0.2%), especially those of fresh food (−2.5% after +0.5%). Excluding fresh products, food prices dipped too (−0.2% after +0.1%), due to dairy products (−0.2%) and meat (−0.3%). Year-on-year, they were stable.

After two months of drop, energy prices rebounded in September 2016 (+0.8%). However, they remained lower than a year ago (−1.1%). The month-on-month rise firstly came from the increase in petroleum product prices (+1.4%; −1.4% year-on-year). Town gas and natural gas prices, indexed to the changes in oil prices with a time lag, expanded too, but more modestly (+0.4%; −7.8% year-on-year). However, electricity fares were stable over the month (+1.8% year-on-year).

Prices of manufactured products slowed slighlty in September 2016 (+1.3% after +1.4%). With the autumn and winter collection, clothing and footwear prices remained dynamic (+7.9% after +8.7%).

Prices of “other manufactured products” decelerated too (+0.2% after +0.4% in August), due to the fall of the prices of games, toys and hobbies and those of sports equipment ; however, new motors car prices picked up after two months of decline (+0.5% after −0.3% in July and −0.1% in August). Lastly, the prices of health products were unchanged and remained lower than last year (−2.7% year-on-year).

In September 2016, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) increased by 0.2% after a stability in August. Year-on-year, it gathered pace to 0.7% after +0.4% in the previous month, returning to its level of June 2016. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) edged down by 0.2% over one month ; year-on-year, it went up by 0.5% (+0.4% in August).

Compared to the provisional estimates published on 30 September 2016, the monthly and annual rates of change in the CPI and HICP are unchanged.