In September 2016, the business climate worsens in wholesale tradeBi-monthly survey of wholesaling - September 2016

According to the managers surveyed in September 2016, the business climate has worsened in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it, has lost five points compared to July 2016 and stands at 99. It has gone below its average (100) and has returned to its level of March 2015. The turning-point indicator has gone into the unfavourable area.

Informations rapides
No 251
Paru le : 22/09/2016
Prochaine parution le : 26/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

According to the managers surveyed in September 2016, the business climate has worsened in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it, has lost five points compared to July 2016 and stands at 99. It has gone below its average (100) and has returned to its level of March 2015. The turning-point indicator has gone into the unfavourable area.

graph_indclimaff_en – Composite indicator

graph_indretournf_en – Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between -0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.

Recent sales and received merchandises are considered lower, in France as abroad

More wholesalers than in July have indicated a decline of their past sales and received merchandises on the last two months. Each of the two balances has gone below its average. The balances concerning activity abroad, – sales and received merchandises –, have declined too. The balance concerning exports sales has fell back to its level of September 2014, significantly below its average.

Forecasts have lost some lustre

Practically as many managers as in July expect a decrease in their orders, in France or abroad. The corresponding balances remain slightly above their average. Concerning shipments abroad, wholesalers are more pessimistic: the balance has fallen back to its mean level. The balance concerning general outlook has declined again albeit remaining above its average.

The balance on expected workforce remains above normal

The balance concerning past workforce has declined and has gone below its average. The one concerning expected workforce has been virtually stable since January 2016 and stands above its mean level.

More wholesalers indicate falls in prices

More wholesalers than two months ago have declared falls in their past and expected prices. The corresponding balances are still far below their long-term average.

tab_cgens_en – Total wholesale trade

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Total wholesale trade
Ave.* Mar. 16 May 16 July 16 Sept. 16
Composite indicator 100 100 102 104 99
General outlook –24 –16 –9 –11 –14
Sales –14 –15 –17 –11 –19
export sales –15 –20 –11 –14 –25
Received merchandises –9 –12 –10 –6 –15
received from abroad –10 –12 –8 –5 –11
Ordering intentions –15 –13 –11 –12 –13
ordering from abroad –15 –10 –12 –9 –10
Shipments abroad –15 –16 –12 –9 –15
Current stock 8 9 8 6 6
Past workforce –1 –4 1 0 –3
Expected workforce –3 1 0 1 0
Cash position –10 –6 –6 –6 –6
Past selling prices 7 –23 –8 –2 –8
Expecting selling prices 15 –3 0 0 –4
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade

Raw agricultural products and live animals

In this sector, the balances concerning past activity, in France and abroad, and that on ordering intentions one have collapsed. Those concerning past sales and ordering intentions have never been so low since the beginning of the survey (1979). The balance on exports has come back to its low level of the spring of 2004. Stocks have been deemed much lower.

Food products and beverages

In the food sector, more wholesalers have indicated a rise in their past activity, but also a decline in their activity abroad, sales or received merchandises. The balance about ordering intentions has slightly progressed and has gone above its mean level.

Household goods

The balances concerning past activity, in France or abroad, have barely changed in the household goods sector. The balance on ordering intentions has slipped back but has remained above its average.

Capital goods in information and communication

More wholesalers of this sector than in July have reported a decline in their past sales, their exports, their imports and their ordering intentions. The first of these four balances has stayed above its mean level, the three others are now below average.

Other industrial capital goods

In industrial capital goods sector, the balances concerning past activity and activity abroad have shrunk while they had stood at their average in July. The balance concerning ordering intentions has diminished slightly, yet remaining above its mean level.

Other specialised wholesale trade

In this sector, both balances concerning past sales, in France and abroad have plummeted after having reached a high level in July, and have gone below their average. Those concerning imports and ordering intentions have declined but remain above their average.

graph_sect_en – Past activity (sales) in capital goods

tab_cgsect_en – Wholesale trade sectors

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Wholesale trade sectors
Ave. * Mar. 16 May 16 July 16 Sept. 16
Raw agricultural products and live animals
Sales –12 –25 –28 –19 –43
Export sales –15 –35 –24 –24 –51
Merchandise received from abroad –9 –21 –17 –11 –29
Ordering intentions –12 –14 –16 –28 –43
Current stock 6 7 15 14 –10
Food products and beverages
Sales –14 –12 –18 –15 –9
Export sales –12 –6 –14 –15 –18
Merchandise received from abroad –13 2 –5 –2 –4
Ordering intentions –11 –8 –10 –12 –9
Current stock 5 9 6 3 3
Household goods
Sales –10 –4 –9 –13 –11
Export sales –11 –11 0 –6 –8
Merchandise received from abroad –6 –2 –5 –5 –2
Ordering intentions –14 –4 –7 –4 –9
Current stock 12 5 7 7 9
Capital goods in information and communication
Sales –9 –1 –12 1 –5
Export sales –13 –4 –7 –10 –26
Merchandise received from abroad –7 –7 0 –1 –10
Ordering intentions –10 –5 –4 –1 –11
Current stock 8 11 13 5 18
Other industrial capital goods
Sales –17 –22 –17 –16 –24
Export sales –21 –29 –26 –21 –30
Merchandise received from abroad –11 –8 –18 –11 –23
Ordering intentions –22 –21 –16 –12 –15
Current stock 11 13 7 7 11
Other specialized wholesale trade
Sales –18 –29 –18 –8 –27
Export sales –19 –35 –14 –10 –32
Merchandise received from abroad –13 –31 –8 –4 –8
Ordering intentions –19 –20 –12 –16 –12
Current stock 6 12 5 6 10
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade