22 September 2016
2016- n° 251In September 2016, the business climate worsens in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - September 2016
According to the managers surveyed in September 2016, the business climate has worsened in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it, has lost five points compared to July 2016 and stands at 99. It has gone below its average (100) and has returned to its level of March 2015. The turning-point indicator has gone into the unfavourable area.
- Recent sales and received merchandises are considered lower, in France as abroad
- Forecasts have lost some lustre
- The balance on expected workforce remains above normal
- More wholesalers indicate falls in prices
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in September 2016, the business climate has worsened in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it, has lost five points compared to July 2016 and stands at 99. It has gone below its average (100) and has returned to its level of March 2015. The turning-point indicator has gone into the unfavourable area.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff_en – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf_en – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between -0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
Recent sales and received merchandises are considered lower, in France as abroad
More wholesalers than in July have indicated a decline of their past sales and received merchandises on the last two months. Each of the two balances has gone below its average. The balances concerning activity abroad, – sales and received merchandises –, have declined too. The balance concerning exports sales has fell back to its level of September 2014, significantly below its average.
Forecasts have lost some lustre
Practically as many managers as in July expect a decrease in their orders, in France or abroad. The corresponding balances remain slightly above their average. Concerning shipments abroad, wholesalers are more pessimistic: the balance has fallen back to its mean level. The balance concerning general outlook has declined again albeit remaining above its average.
The balance on expected workforce remains above normal
The balance concerning past workforce has declined and has gone below its average. The one concerning expected workforce has been virtually stable since January 2016 and stands above its mean level.
More wholesalers indicate falls in prices
More wholesalers than two months ago have declared falls in their past and expected prices. The corresponding balances are still far below their long-term average.
tableautab_cgens_en – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | Mar. 16 | May 16 | July 16 | Sept. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 102 | 104 | 99 |
| General outlook | –24 | –16 | –9 | –11 | –14 |
| Sales | –14 | –15 | –17 | –11 | –19 |
| export sales | –15 | –20 | –11 | –14 | –25 |
| Received merchandises | –9 | –12 | –10 | –6 | –15 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –12 | –8 | –5 | –11 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –13 | –11 | –12 | –13 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –10 | –12 | –9 | –10 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –16 | –12 | –9 | –15 |
| Current stock | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –4 | 1 | 0 | –3 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cash position | –10 | –6 | –6 | –6 | –6 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | –23 | –8 | –2 | –8 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | –3 | 0 | 0 | –4 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In this sector, the balances concerning past activity, in France and abroad, and that on ordering intentions one have collapsed. Those concerning past sales and ordering intentions have never been so low since the beginning of the survey (1979). The balance on exports has come back to its low level of the spring of 2004. Stocks have been deemed much lower.
Food products and beverages
In the food sector, more wholesalers have indicated a rise in their past activity, but also a decline in their activity abroad, sales or received merchandises. The balance about ordering intentions has slightly progressed and has gone above its mean level.
Household goods
The balances concerning past activity, in France or abroad, have barely changed in the household goods sector. The balance on ordering intentions has slipped back but has remained above its average.
Capital goods in information and communication
More wholesalers of this sector than in July have reported a decline in their past sales, their exports, their imports and their ordering intentions. The first of these four balances has stayed above its mean level, the three others are now below average.
Other industrial capital goods
In industrial capital goods sector, the balances concerning past activity and activity abroad have shrunk while they had stood at their average in July. The balance concerning ordering intentions has diminished slightly, yet remaining above its mean level.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, both balances concerning past sales, in France and abroad have plummeted after having reached a high level in July, and have gone below their average. Those concerning imports and ordering intentions have declined but remain above their average.
graphiquegraph_sect_en – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect_en – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | Mar. 16 | May 16 | July 16 | Sept. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –25 | –28 | –19 | –43 |
| Export sales | –15 | –35 | –24 | –24 | –51 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –21 | –17 | –11 | –29 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –14 | –16 | –28 | –43 |
| Current stock | 6 | 7 | 15 | 14 | –10 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –12 | –18 | –15 | –9 |
| Export sales | –12 | –6 | –14 | –15 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | 2 | –5 | –2 | –4 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –8 | –10 | –12 | –9 |
| Current stock | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –4 | –9 | –13 | –11 |
| Export sales | –11 | –11 | 0 | –6 | –8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –2 | –5 | –5 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –4 | –7 | –4 | –9 |
| Current stock | 12 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –1 | –12 | 1 | –5 |
| Export sales | –13 | –4 | –7 | –10 | –26 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –7 | 0 | –1 | –10 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –5 | –4 | –1 | –11 |
| Current stock | 8 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –22 | –17 | –16 | –24 |
| Export sales | –21 | –29 | –26 | –21 | –30 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –8 | –18 | –11 | –23 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –21 | –16 | –12 | –15 |
| Current stock | 11 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –29 | –18 | –8 | –27 |
| Export sales | –19 | –35 | –14 | –10 | –32 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –31 | –8 | –4 | –8 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –20 | –12 | –16 | –12 |
| Current stock | 6 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
