25 August 2016
2016- n° 219In August 2016, the business climate is practically stable in retail trade and in
trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - August 2016
According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is practically stable in August 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point and stands at 103. It has remained above its long term average (100) since May 2015.
Warning: the seasonal components have been updated in August 2016, as well as the parameters of the composite indicator, which leads to slight revisions. They are updated once a year.
According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is practically stable in August 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point and stands at 103. It has remained above its long term average (100) since May 2015.
graphiquegraph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator
Slight improvement in past activity
A little more traders than in July have declared a rise in their past activity. The corresponding balance of opinion thus remain above its average. Concerning the next few months, the three balances on expected sales, ordering intentions and general business outlook have fallen back slightly. However, each of them stays above its mean level.
Stocks have been estimated lower. Nevertheless, the associated balance has remained above its standard level since the beginning of 2016.
As many retailers as in July expect falls in prices in the coming months. The corresponding balance is slightly below its average.
tableautab1_en – Tendancy in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
| Ave. (1) | May 16 | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 104 | 102 | 104 | 103 |
| General business outlook | –30 | –16 | –22 | –18 | –22 |
| Recent sales | –7 | 4 | –5 | –5 | –1 |
| Expected sales | –3 | 0 | –1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | –9 | –4 | –5 | –2 | –4 |
| Stocks | 11 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 13 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –7 | –11 | –7 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –6 | –9 | –5 | –5 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –15 | –17 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | –4 | –2 | –4 | –1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –3 | –5 | –5 | –3 | –4 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueGraph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions
Balances on employment close to average
The balance concerning recent workforce has moderately progressed and the one about expected workforce is practically stable. They both stand close to their average. In retail trade, each of both balances has slightly increased but stays below its mean level. In trade and repair of motor vehicles, these two balances have barely changed and remain above their average.
In retail trade, the business climate indicator is virtually stable
In retail trade, the business climate indicator is virtually stable (+1 point). It has reached its long-term average (100).
In non-specialised as well as in specialised trade, more retailers than in July have indicated a rise in their past sales. The corresponding balance has climbed above its average in non-specialised trade, but has remained below it in specialised trade.
In retail trade as a whole, the balances concerning general outlook, expected sales and ordering intentions have faltered a little. The first one stays above its mean level, both others remain close to it.
Overall, retailers have estimed the level of stocks lower, but still above normal.
Roughly as many of them as in July expect falls in selling prices.
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, business climate remains very favourable
In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has remained high (111), even if it has decreased by three points. It has been above its mean level (100) since the end of 2014.
The balance concerning past sales has fallen back. The balances on general outlook and ordering intentions have slipped back too, while the one concerning expected sales has increased. Each of the four balances remains significantly above its average.
The level of stocks has been estimated practically stable, above its standard level.
The balance on expected prices has risen again and has get closer to its average.
graphiquegraph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiquegraph_climat_ca_cd_en – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
tableautab2_en – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | May 16 | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 99 | 97 | 99 | 100 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –30 | –19 | –25 | –21 | –24 |
| Recent sales | –6 | 1 | –12 | –14 | –6 |
| Expected sales | –1 | –1 | –4 | 0 | –3 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | –3 | –7 | –5 | –6 |
| Stocks | 10 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 12 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –15 | –10 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –6 | –10 | –6 | –7 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –15 | –16 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 2 | –4 | –3 | –5 | –2 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –6 | –5 | –4 | –3 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –2 | 14 | –6 | –8 | 0 |
| Expected sales | 6 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Ordering intentions | 1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Stocks | 7 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 10 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –23 | –13 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –4 | –8 | –5 | –6 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –6 | –9 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –11 | –16 | –20 | –21 | –14 |
| Expected sales | –8 | –9 | –15 | –9 | –11 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –18 | –21 | –15 | –17 |
| Stocks | 13 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –7 | –7 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –8 | –12 | –8 | –9 |
| Cash position (2) | –23 | –25 | –24 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 112 | 114 | 114 | 111 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –30 | –8 | –8 | –8 | –15 |
| Recent sales | –9 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 11 |
| Expected sales | –8 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –4 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| Stocks | 15 | 20 | 14 | 18 | 17 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | –4 | –6 | –2 | 2 |
| Cash position (2) | –25 | –15 | –18 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –9 | –1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –7 | 0 | –1 | –1 | –3 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
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