11 August 2016

2016- n° 207

In July 2016, consumer prices decreased by 0.4% over a month; they rose by 0.2% year-on-year Consumer price index - final results - July 2016

In July 2016, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) declined by 0.4% over a month, after an increase by 0.1% in June. Seasonally adjusted, it was stable in July after an upturn by 0.1% in June. Year-on-year, the CPI rose by 0.2%, as in the previous month.

This month-on-month drop was mainly due to summer sales, underlying the seasonal fall in prices of manufactured products. Besides, energy prices fell back because of petroleum products. Conversely, prices of some services related to tourism expanded seasonally. Finally, food prices were very slightly up.

Manufactured products prices dropped seasonally in July (−2.9% against −3.1% in July 2015; −0.3% year-on-year) due to summer sales involving especially clothing and footwear (−14.2% against −14.4% in July 2015; + 0.7% year-on-year). To a lesser extent, prices of other types of products diminished with summer sales, such as travel goods (−5.3%; +1.8% year-on-year), furniture and furnishings (−4.3%; +0.1% year-on-year), audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment (−1.2%; −2.9% year-on-year), textile household articles (−1.8%; +1.9% year-on-year) and household appliances (−1.4%; −1.0% year-on-year). In addition, prices of new motor cars weakened owing to some discounts (−0.3%; −1.9% year-on-year). Lastly, prices of health products slipped again (−0.2%; −2.7% year-on-year).

After four consecutive months of increases, energy prices were fell back anew in July 2016 (−1.3%; −3.3% year-on-year), driven by the reversal in petroleum product prices (−2.4%; −6.6% year-on-year). On the contrary, city gas prices, indexed with delay to the changes in oil prices, rose in July (+0.3%; −9.4% year-on-year). Electricity rates were stable over the month (+4.1% year-on-year).

Every year in July, services prices grew during the summer holidays (+1.0% over this month, +0.8% year-on-year). Thus, prices of accommodation services increased by 10.3 % over the month, but diminished year-on-year (−0.2%). Likewise, prices of package holidays leapt seasonally in July 2016 (14.4%; +2.1% year-on-year) as well as airfares (21.7%; −2.7% year-on-year). Moreover, prices of communication services were virtually stable in July (−0.1%; +1.9% year-on-year), but with contrasting variations depending on the type of services: Internet access prices declined whereas those of mobile phone services increased slightly .

In July 2016, food prices were very slightly up (+0.1%; +1.2% year-on-year after +0.6%). Fresh foodstuffs became more expensive (+0.6% against −4.1% in July 2015), a portion of this difference (about 2 pourcentage points) arose from a new method of calculation implemented through the CPI change of base (see explanatory note). Excluding fresh products, food prices were unchanged for the eighth month in a row. Year-on-year, they were up by barely 0.1%, as in June.

In July 2016, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) edged down by 0.1%. Year-on-year, it increased by 0.5%, at a slightly slower pace than in the two previous months (+0.7%). The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) dropped by 0.4% over one month, as the CPI; year-on-year, it rose by 0.4% (+0.3% in June).

Compared to the provisional estimates published on 29 July, the monthly and annual rates of change in the CPI and HICP are unrevised.