21 July 2016
2016- n° 192In July 2016, the business climate still gets better in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - July 2016
According to the managers surveyed in July 2016, the business climate still gets better in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it, has gained two points compared to May and stands at 104. It has reached its highest point since September 2011. It has been above its average (100) since May 2016. The turning-point indicator has still improved and has gone into the favourable area.
- Recent sales and received merchandise are more dynamic
- Abroad activity forecasts slightly more optimistic
- The balances concerning employment are above their average
- Still fewer wholesalers have indicated falls in prices
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in July 2016, the business climate still gets better in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it, has gained two points compared to May and stands at 104. It has reached its highest point since September 2011. It has been above its average (100) since May 2016. The turning-point indicator has still improved and has gone into the favourable area.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff_en – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf_en – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively −1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between −0.3 et +0.3: short-term economic uncertainty.
Recent sales and received merchandise are more dynamic
More wholesalers have declared an increase in their past sales and received merchandise. Each of both balances has gone above its average. The balance concerning exports has declined, coming back to its average. However, the one concerning imports has still risen, going up above its mean level.
Abroad activity forecasts slightly more optimistic
As many managers as in May have indicated ordering intentions above their average. They are more pessimistic concerning general outlook. But they have been more optimistic about their orders from abroad or shipments abroad. Each of the four balances is above its mean level.
The balances concerning employment are above their average
The balance concerning past workforce is practically stable, close to its average. The expected workforce one has risen slightly, above its mean level.
Still fewer wholesalers have indicated falls in prices
Once again, fewer wholesalers than on the last two-months period have declared falls in their past and expected prices. However the corresponding balances are still below their average.
tableautab_cgens_en – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | Jan. 16 | Mar. 16 | May 16 | July 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 100 | 102 | 104 |
| General outlook | –24 | –12 | –16 | –9 | –11 |
| Sales | –14 | –12 | –15 | –17 | –9 |
| export sales | –15 | –10 | –20 | –11 | –15 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –9 | –12 | –10 | –6 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –12 | –12 | –8 | –5 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –15 | –13 | –11 | –11 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –15 | –10 | –12 | –10 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –17 | –16 | –12 | –9 |
| Current stock | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –4 | –4 | 1 | 0 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Cash position | –10 | –6 | –6 | –6 | –6 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | –19 | –23 | –8 | –1 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | –7 | –3 | 0 | 1 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In this sector, fewer managers have indicated a decrease in their past sales, but more of them have noted a decline in their past activity abroad. The balance concerning ordering intentions has felt back. Each of the four balances is below its average.
Food products and beverages
In the food sector, the balances concerning past activity, in France or abroad, have been virtually stable, slightly below their mean level. The imports balance has risen. The ordering intentions one is steady, close to its average.
Household goods
The balances concerning past sales and merchandises received from abroad are stable or nearly, in this sector, but the balance on exports has decreased. Each of the three is slightly above its mean level. The ordering intentions balance has gone up and has reached its highest level since the automn of 2007.
Capital goods in information and communication
More wholesalers of this sector than in May have declared a growth in their sales, and practically as many have indicated an increase in their exports. The balances concerning expected orders and merchandise received from abroad have remained dynamic. Each of the four balances is above its mean level.
Other industrial capital goods
Slightly more managers in industrial capital goods sector have reported a decline in their past sales, but an increase in their imports and exports. Ordering intentions have strengthened again: the balance, above its average, has reached its highest level for five years.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, the three balances concerning past sales and activity abroad have still progressed. Those concerning past sales and merchandise received from abroad have reached the level of the spring of 2011, the exports one, the level of the end of 2007. The ordering intentions have sligthly folded but have stayed above their average.
graphiquegraph_sect_en – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect_en – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | Jan. 16 | Mar. 16 | May 16 | July 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –19 | –25 | –28 | –18 |
| Export sales | –15 | –27 | –35 | –24 | –25 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –22 | –21 | –17 | –20 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –17 | –14 | –16 | –25 |
| Current stock | 6 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 16 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –2 | –12 | –18 | –16 |
| Export sales | –12 | –7 | –6 | –14 | –14 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –11 | 2 | –5 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –9 | –8 | –10 | –10 |
| Current stock | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –7 | –4 | –9 | –7 |
| Export sales | –11 | 2 | –11 | 0 | –10 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –4 | –2 | –5 | –5 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –9 | –4 | –7 | –3 |
| Current stock | 12 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | 0 | –1 | –12 | 2 |
| Export sales | –13 | 9 | –4 | –7 | –6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –11 | –7 | 0 | 2 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –9 | –5 | –4 | –3 |
| Current stock | 8 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 4 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –18 | –22 | –17 | –19 |
| Export sales | –21 | –12 | –29 | –26 | –24 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –11 | –8 | –18 | –11 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –18 | –21 | –16 | –12 |
| Current stock | 11 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 8 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –13 | –29 | –18 | –5 |
| Export sales | –19 | –15 | –35 | –14 | –11 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –14 | –31 | –8 | 1 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –24 | –20 | –12 | –15 |
| Current stock | 6 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 7 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
