30 May 2016

2016- n° 141

In Q1 2016, consumption and investment sustained French GDP growth (+0.6%) Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 1st Quarter 2016

In Q1 2016, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.6%, thereby revising the first estimate slightly upwards (+0.5%).

Household consumption expenditure recovered sharply (+1.0% after +0.0%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated (+1.6% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed for +1.0 points to GDP growth after +0.3 points in the end of 2015.

Exports stabilized (+0.0% after +0.8%), while imports slowed down (+0.6% after +2.5%). In fine, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.2 points), but to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter (−0.6 points). Changes in inventories also contributed negatively (−0.2 points, after +0.7 points).

Production in goods and services accelerated (+0.7% after +0.6%), notably in energy (+1.0% after +0.1%) and market services (+1.1% after +0.8%). In construction, output increased for the second quarter in a row (+0.5% after +0.4%). By contrast, it slowed down in manufacturing industry (+0.1% after +0.7%).

Household consumption expenditure increased strongly in Q1 2016 (+1.0% after +0.0%), mainly driven by the sharp rebound in expenditure on goods (+1.4% after −0.4%) and, to a lesser extent, by the acceleration in consumption of services (+0.7% after +0.3%). Consumption of engineered goods accelerated sharply (+2.1% after +0.1%), notably in housing equipment, car purchases and clothing. Similarly, energy expenditure bounced back (+1.6% after −2.6%), due to temperatures closer to seasonal norms than in autumn 2015.

The acceleration in household consumption of services stemmed mainly from a rebound in accommodation and food services and in services to households.

In the first quarter of 2016, GFCF accelerated again (+1.6% after +1.2%). GFCF in manufactured goods' increased at a higher pace (+4.1%) than in the end of 2015 (+3.1%) especially in capital goods. To a lesser extent, investment in market services (+1.5% after +1.2%) and in construction (+0.4% after +0.2%) accelerated too.

In Q1 2016, exports stagnated (after +0.8%): transport equipment sales fell back significantly while those of agri-food products rebounded. Imports slowed down sharply (+0.6% after +2.5%), notably because of the downturn in hydrocarbon purchases. Overall, foreign trade balance acted as a drag on GDP growth again, by 0.2 points in the first quarter (after a contribution of −0.6 points).

Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.2 points after +0.7 points in Q4 2015.

Revisions are larger this quarter than in the previous publications, but their magnitude is typical at this time of year: they result from the benchmarking on annual accounts revised on years 2015 (GDP growth inchanged, at +1.2%, WDA), 2014 (+0.5 points at +0.7%) and 2013 (−0.1 points at +0.6%) and from updates of seasonal and working day adjustments. In Q1 2016, moreover, indicators known after the first estimate have been integrated.