In Q1 2016, consumption and investment sustained French GDP growth (+0.6%)Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 1st Quarter 2016

In Q1 2016, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.6%, thereby revising the first estimate slightly upwards (+0.5%).

Informations rapides
No 141
Paru le : 30/05/2016
Prochaine parution le : 29/11/2017 at 07:30 - third quarter 2017

In Q1 2016, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.6%, thereby revising the first estimate slightly upwards (+0.5%).

Household consumption expenditure recovered sharply (+1.0% after +0.0%). Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated (+1.6% after +1.2%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed for +1.0 points to GDP growth after +0.3 points in the end of 2015.

Exports stabilized (+0.0% after +0.8%), while imports slowed down (+0.6% after +2.5%). In fine, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.2 points), but to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter (−0.6 points). Changes in inventories also contributed negatively (−0.2 points, after +0.7 points).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Tab1 – Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2015 2016 (ovhg)
GDP -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.1
Imports 0.3 1.6 2.5 0.6 6.4 3.3
Household consumption *expenditure 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 1.5 1.3
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.4 0.9
GFCF 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.9 2.6
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.6 0.4 1.9 2.4 2.7 4.2
Households -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.8 0.1
General government -0.2 -0.6 0.7 0.9 -3.9 1.1
Exports 1.5 -0.2 0.8 0.0 6.0 0.9
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 1.5
Inventory changes -0.6 0.6 0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.5
Net foreign trade 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8
  • Source: INSEE

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Total production ramped up slightly

Production in goods and services accelerated (+0.7% after +0.6%), notably in energy (+1.0% after +0.1%) and market services (+1.1% after +0.8%). In construction, output increased for the second quarter in a row (+0.5% after +0.4%). By contrast, it slowed down in manufacturing industry (+0.1% after +0.7%).

Tab3 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2015 2016 (ovhg)
Production of branches -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4
Goods -0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.7
Manufactured Industry -0.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.5 0.7
Construction -0.5 -0.5 0.4 0.5 -2.2 0.4
Market services 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.0
Non-market services 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.8
Household consumption 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 1.5 1.3
Food products 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.7
Energy -2.4 2.1 -2.6 1.6 1.4 0.0
Engineered goods 0.4 0.8 0.1 2.1 2.7 2.7
Services 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2
GFCF 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.9 2.6
Manufactured goods 1.0 0.2 3.1 4.1 2.1 6.9
Construction -0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.4 -2.2 0.2
Market services 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 4.4 3.0
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption accelerated significantly

Household consumption expenditure increased strongly in Q1 2016 (+1.0% after +0.0%), mainly driven by the sharp rebound in expenditure on goods (+1.4% after −0.4%) and, to a lesser extent, by the acceleration in consumption of services (+0.7% after +0.3%). Consumption of engineered goods accelerated sharply (+2.1% after +0.1%), notably in housing equipment, car purchases and clothing. Similarly, energy expenditure bounced back (+1.6% after −2.6%), due to temperatures closer to seasonal norms than in autumn 2015.

The acceleration in household consumption of services stemmed mainly from a rebound in accommodation and food services and in services to households.

Investment accelerated sharply

In the first quarter of 2016, GFCF accelerated again (+1.6% after +1.2%). GFCF in manufactured goods' increased at a higher pace (+4.1%) than in the end of 2015 (+3.1%) especially in capital goods. To a lesser extent, investment in market services (+1.5% after +1.2%) and in construction (+0.4% after +0.2%) accelerated too.

Foreign trade balance put a drag on activity again, but less than in the fourth quarter

In Q1 2016, exports stagnated (after +0.8%): transport equipment sales fell back significantly while those of agri-food products rebounded. Imports slowed down sharply (+0.6% after +2.5%), notably because of the downturn in hydrocarbon purchases. Overall, foreign trade balance acted as a drag on GDP growth again, by 0.2 points in the first quarter (after a contribution of −0.6 points).

Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth

Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.2 points after +0.7 points in Q4 2015.

Revisions

Revisions are larger this quarter than in the previous publications, but their magnitude is typical at this time of year: they result from the benchmarking on annual accounts revised on years 2015 (GDP growth inchanged, at +1.2%, WDA), 2014 (+0.5 points at +0.7%) and 2013 (−0.1 points at +0.6%) and from updates of seasonal and working day adjustments. In Q1 2016, moreover, indicators known after the first estimate have been integrated.

Tab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, data WDA-SA
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2015
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 312.1 311.4 310.3   1243.4
Total receipts 290.4 291.1 295.2   1165.9
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -21.7 -20.3 -15.2   -77.5
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.0 -3.7 -2.8   -3.6
  • Source: INSEE

Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), data WDA-SA
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2015
Profit share 31.0 31.3 31.7   31.4
Investment ratio 22.9 22.8 23.0   22.9
Savings ratio 19.3 19.9 20.2   19.7
Self-financing ratio 84.2 87.4 87.7   86.3
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2015
HDI 0.2 0.7 0.3   1.4
Household purchasing power 0.0 0.8 0.3 1.6
HDI by CU* (purchasing power) -0.2 0.7 0.2 1.2
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.6
Saving rate (level) 14.2 14.5 14.9 14.5
Financial saving rate (level) 5.3 5.6 5.8   5.5
  • *CU: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2015
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 31.0 31.3 31.7   31.4
Household purchasing power 0.0 0.8 0.3   1.6
  • *NFC: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)