In April 2016, the business climate falters in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehiclesMonthly survey of retailing - April 2016

In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has faltered, according to the managers surveyed in April 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost two points and stands at 102. It has been above its long term average (100) since the beginning of 2015.

Informations rapides
No 104
Paru le : 21/04/2016
Prochaine parution le : 23/11/2017 at 08:45 - November 2017

In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has faltered, according to the managers surveyed in April 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost two points and stands at 102. It has been above its long term average (100) since the beginning of 2015.

graph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator

Slightly less optimistic business prospects

In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, slightly more managers than in March have indicated a rise in their past activity: the corresponding balance has increased above its average for the second month in a row. Conversely, managers' forecasts are slightly less optimistic than in March: the three balances concerning general business outlook, expected sales and ordering intentions have dropped. The first ones have stayed above their average, the third one has gone below it.

Stocks are estimated stable, moderately above their standard level.

As many managers as in the last four months expect decreases in selling prices over the next few months.

Graph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions

tab1_en – Global data

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Global data
Ave. (1) Jan. 16 Feb. 16 Mar. 16 April 16
Business climate 100 105 101 104 102
General business outlook −30 −16 −21 −21 −22
Recent sales −7 −4 −8 −5 1
Expected sales −3 5 −5 2 −1
Ordering intentions −9 −7 −10 −5 −11
Stocks 10 15 11 12 12
Past selling prices (2) −7 −4 −12
Expected selling prices −3 −6 −6 −4 −6
Cash position (2) −15 −17 −15
Workforce size: recent trend −1 1 −4 −6 −6
Workforce size: future trend −3 −5 −8 −7 −6
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE

Employment prospects remain lacklustre

Each of both balances concerning recent and expected workforce trends is practically stable, below its mean level.

Retail trade

Past activity deemed better in non-specialised trade than in specialised one

In non-specialised retail trade, the balance concerning past activity has increased for the second month in a row and has gone above its average. The two balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions have fallen back, each of them being below its average from now on. These trends are opposite in specialised trade: the balance concerning recent sales has gone on declining while those concerning expected activity and ordering intentions have picked up to their mean level.

Stocks are estimated stable. They stand above their standard level in non-specialised trade, below it in specialised one.

In both non-specialised and specialised trade, more retailers than in March foresee price falls over the next few months.

Trade and repair of motor vehicles

Activity balances remain above their average

More motor vehicle traders than in March have indicated a rise in their past activity. The corresponding balance has increased for three months in a row, and stands at a high level. Slightly fewer of these traders expect a rise in their sales and their orders: each of these two balances has declined, remaining however clearly above its average.

graph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in motor vehicles

Stocks have been considered stable, at their standard level.

The balance of opinion concerning past prices is virtually stable, slightly below its long-term average.

Both balances concerning recent and future workforce trends have recovered and stand above their average.

tab2_en – Detailed data

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Detailed data
Ave. (1) Jan. 16 Feb. 16 Mar. 16 April 16
Retail trade - Global data
Recent sales −6 −5 −12 −10 −4
Expected sales 0 3 −7 −2 −3
Ordering intentions −7 −11 −14 −9 −15
Stocks 9 13 8 11 11
Past selling prices (2) −8 −8 −16
Expected selling prices −5 −11 −10 −6 −9
Cash position (2) −13 −15 −15
Workforce size: recent trend 1 2 −2 −4 −7
Workforce size: future trend −2 −6 −7 −9 −8
Non-specialised retail trade
Recent sales −2 2 −17 −6 6
Expected sales 6 6 −3 6 −1
Ordering intentions 1 −13 −14 3 −12
Stocks 7 17 9 14 14
Past selling prices (2) −9 −10 −16
Expected selling prices −5 −13 −14 −6 −10
Cash position (2) −7 −7 −5
Specialised retail trade
Recent sales −11 −15 −7 −14 −15
Expected sales −8 −4 −11 −11 −8
Ordering intentions −17 −13 −14 −23 −17
Stocks 13 9 6 7 8
Past selling prices (2) −8 −10 −14
Expected selling prices −5 −8 −5 −6 −7
Cash position (2) −23 −25 −26
Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles
Recent sales −9 0 2 6 13
Expected sales −8 8 8 11 6
Ordering intentions −12 4 1 4 2
Stocks 15 21 21 16 15
Past selling prices (2) 1 5 3
Expected selling prices 4 −2 4 0 2
Cash position (2) −25 −19 −16
Workforce size: recent trend −9 −9 −9 −14 −4
Workforce size: future trend −7 −5 −1 −1 1
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE