24 May 2016
2016- n° 134In May 2016, the business climate gets better in retail trade and in trade and repair
of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - May 2016
In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate recovers after a slight fall in April, according to the managers surveyed in May 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has gained four points and stands at 106. It has been above its long term average (100) since the beginning of 2015.
In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate recovers after a slight fall in April, according to the managers surveyed in May 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has gained four points and stands at 106. It has been above its long term average (100) since the beginning of 2015.
graphiquegraph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator
Favourable perception of past and expected activity
In retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, once again, more managers than in the previous month have declared a rise in their past activity: the corresponding balance stands significantly above its average. For the next three months, managers are more optimistic than in April: the balances concerning ordering intentions and general business outlook have moved up. The one about expected sales is practically stable. Each of the three is above its average.
Stocks are estimated slightly lower, coming back to their standard level.
The balances concerning past and expected prices are virtually stable. Each of them remains below its average.
The cash position has been still considered normal.
graphiqueGraph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions
tableautab1_en – Global data
| Ave. (1) | Feb. 16 | Mar. 16 | April 16 | May 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 101 | 104 | 102 | 106 |
| General business outlook | –30 | –21 | –21 | –22 | –16 |
| Recent sales | –7 | –8 | –5 | 1 | 4 |
| Expected sales | –3 | –5 | 2 | –1 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | –9 | –10 | –5 | –11 | –5 |
| Stocks | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –7 | –12 | –10 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –6 | –4 | –6 | –6 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –15 | –14 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –1 | –4 | –6 | –6 | –5 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –3 | –8 | –7 | –6 | –7 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
No improvement on employment prospects
Each of both balances concerning recent and expected workforce trends is practically stable, below its mean level.
Retail trade
Past and expected activity considered to be better in non-specialised trade
In non-specialised retail trade, past activity is considered as more buoyant: the corresponding balance, already above its average, has gone on increasing in May. Forecasts have improved: both balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions have risen; the first one has reached its average, the second one has gone above it.
In specialised trade, the three balances concerning recent sales, expected sales and ordering intentions are roughly stable, the first one below its average, both others at their mean level. Activity has been especially sluggish in the clothing sector.
In retail trade as a whole, stocks have been estimated lower, below their standard level from now on.
Overall, as many retailers as on the last interrogation have indicated price falls over the last few months. Fewer have anticipated some over the next months.
The cash position has been considered rather easy in non-specialised trade but a little more difficult than on average in specialised one.
Trade and repair of motor vehicles
Activity balances remain significantly above their average
Virtually, as many motor vehicle traders as in April have indicated a rise in their past activity. The corresponding balance remains at a high level. Concerning the balances about expected sales and ordering intentions, they have declined again but still remain high.
graphiquegraph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in motor vehicles
Stocks have been considered stable again, close to their standard level.
The balance of opinion concerning past prices remains close to its average, the one on expected prices has slipped back.
The cash position remains estimated easier than on average.
tableautab2_en – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | Feb. 16 | Mar. 16 | April 16 | May 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Recent sales | –6 | –12 | –10 | –4 | –1 |
| Expected sales | 0 | –7 | –2 | –3 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | –14 | –9 | –15 | –5 |
| Stocks | 9 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –16 | –15 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –10 | –6 | –9 | –6 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –15 | –14 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | –2 | –4 | –6 | –5 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –7 | –9 | –7 | –8 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –2 | –17 | –6 | 6 | 11 |
| Expected sales | 6 | –3 | 6 | –1 | 6 |
| Ordering intentions | 1 | –14 | 3 | –12 | 6 |
| Stocks | 7 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 3 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –15 | –23 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –14 | –6 | –10 | –4 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –5 | –4 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –11 | –7 | –14 | –15 | –15 |
| Expected sales | –8 | –11 | –11 | –8 | –8 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –14 | –23 | –16 | –18 |
| Stocks | 13 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 12 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –15 | –6 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –5 | –6 | –8 | –8 |
| Cash position (2) | –23 | –27 | –25 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Recent sales | –9 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 15 |
| Expected sales | –8 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | 1 | 4 | 2 | –3 |
| Stocks | 15 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | –4 |
| Cash position (2) | –25 | –16 | –14 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –9 | –9 | –14 | –3 | –2 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –7 | –1 | –1 | 0 | –1 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
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