26 February 2016

2016- n° 51

In Q4 2015, French GDP increased by 0.3%. Thus GDP rose by 1.1% in 2015 as a whole Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 4th Quarter 2015

In Q4 2015, GDP in volum terms* increased by 0.3%, thereby raising slightly the first estimate (+0.2%). On average over the year, growth climbed: +1.1% in 2015 after +0.2% in 2014.

Total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) accelerated in Q4 (+0.7% after +0.1%). By contrast, households' consumption expenditure fell back (−0.2% after +0.5% in Q3 2015). Thus, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes slowed down and contributed 0.2 points to GDP growth (after +0.4 points in the previous quarter). Exports bounced back (+1.0% after −0.6%) and imports accelerated (+2.5% after +1.7%). Overall, foreign trade balance contributed negatively again to GDP growth: −0.5 points after −0.7 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively (+0.7 points as in Q3 2015).

Total output in goods and services accelerated in Q4 (+0.6% after +0.3%) in particular in manufactured industry (+1.1% after +0.2%). Activity in construction rebounded slightly: +0.2% after −0.8% and seven other quarters of decline. However, production in market services slowed down slightly in Q4 (+0.5% after +0.6%).

On average over the year, total output picked up (+1.4% after +0.7% in 2014), in particular in manufactured industry (+1.5% after +0.3%) and in market services (+2.0% after +1.2%). In construction, the decrease was more significant (−2.8% after −2.2%).

Household consumption expenditure fell back by 0.2% in Q4 2015 (after +0.5% in Q3). Expenditure on goods declined (−0.5% after +0.7%), in particular on energy and on clothing. Expenditure on energy (on gas, electricity and on refined petroleum products) slipped back sharply (−2.4% after +1.7%), notably because of temperatures above seasonal norms. Spending on services, decelerated slightly (+0.1% after +0.2%), notably due to accomodation-catering.

On average over the year, household consumption accelerated (+1.4% in 2015 after +0.6%), recording its strongest increase since 2010.

Total GFCF accelerated in Q4 2015 (+0.7% after +0.1%). Investment in manufactured goods was more buoyant (+2.5% after +1.3%), notably in transport equipment. To a lesser extent, investment in market services ramped up too (+0.8% after +0.5%). Investment in construction kept on decreasing (−0.3% after −0.8%) but at a slower pace.

Over the year 2015, total GFCF declined slightly: −0.2% after −1.2%.

In Q4 2015, imports accelerated (+2.5% after +1.7%), especially in transport equipment (+6.7% after +3.1%); however, those in refined petroleum products slowed down sharply (+0.3% after +10.2%). Exports rebounded (+1.0% after −0.6%), mainly due to transport equipment. All in all, foreign trade dampened activity again (-0.5 points this quarter, after −0.7 points).

On average over the year, importations accelerated (+6.5% after +3.9%), as well as exports (+6.1% after +2.4%). External balance contributed negatively to GDP growth in 2015 (−0.3 points), but to a lesser extent than in 2014 (−0.5 points).

Changes in inventories contributed +0.7 points to GDP growth in Q4 2015, as in Q3 2015. Refined petroleum products and equipment goods, in particular, were stockpiled.

Over the year, changes in inventories contributed +0.3 points to activity, after +0.2 points in 2014.

GDP growth estimation in Q4 2015 is revised upwards by 0.1 points: +0.3% instead of +0.2% initially. This revision is mainly due to the integration of new indicators not available for the first estimation, notably about household investment in new housing, spending on energy and foreign trade, and to revisions of indicators previously available.