9 February 2016

2016- n° 33

In manufacturing industry, business managers forecast that investment will increase in 2016 after a slight decrease in 2015 Industrial investment survey - January 2016

Surveyed in January 2016, the business managers in industry announced that their investment decreased by 2% in 2015 in nominal terms. The estimation given in October 2015 has been lowered by 3 points. Investment has been revised downwards mainly in the food and beverage sector (−7 points).

For 2016, business leaders in industry forecast an increase of 7% in their equipment spending compared with 2015. They have revised by 4 points upwards their previous estimate given in October 2015. This upward revision is slightly more important than the average revision observed at that moment of the year (+3,5 points between 2004 and 2015). It is notably sharp for the sector of electrical and electronic and machine equipment (+9 points) and that of transport equipment (+6 points).

In January 2016, far more industrial leaders reported a rise in their investment between H1 and H2 2015, rather than a fall. The corresponding balance of opinion has reached its highest level since 2010. For H1 2016, business managers who forecast an increase in their investment are also more numerous than those who anticipate a drop. However, this difference has decreased: the balance of opinion on planned investment is lower than that of July 2015.

The investment revision indicator has increased anew after a decrease during H2 2015.

Indeed, business managers were more numerous to revise their expectations for 2016 upwards rather than downwards. This indicator is calculated from investment amounts reported in at each survey by business leaders in manufacturing industry (excluding manufacture of food products and beverages and coke and that of refined petroleum products).