6 May 2015

2015- n° 109

In the manufacturing industry, business managers forecast that investment will increase by 7% in 2015 Industrial investment survey - April 2015

Surveyed in April 2015, business managers stated that investment in manufacturing industry increased by 2% in nominal value in 2014, in line with their previous expectations given last January.

For 2015, business managers in the manufacturing industry forecast that their investment will increase by 7%. They revised 4 points upwards their previous expectations given in January 2015. This upward revision concerns all sectors except that of electrical and electronic equipment, and machine equipment (–2 points). It should be notable in the sector of manufacture of transport equipment (+9 points). It is likely to be less important in the manufacture of food products and beverages (+4 points) and for the other manufacturing (+3 points).

Business leaders that anticipated an increase between H2 2014 and H1 2015 were roughly as numerous as those who anticipated a decrease. From now on, more business managers anticipate a rise than a fall in their investment. The balance of opinion (+10) is above its long-term average (+5).

The investment revision indicator stays positive in April. Based on investment amounts reported in at each survey by business leaders of the manufacturing industry except those of manufacture of food products and beverages (C1) and of coke and refined petroleum products (C2), this indicator is well-correlated with the quarterly growth of gross fixed capital formation of non-financial enterprises.

In 2015, the purposes of investment will be quite similar to those of 2014. The share of investment purposed to replacement or to modernization should be above its long-term average. On the contrary, the share of investment meant to increase productive capacity or purposed to introduction of new products is likely remain below its long-term average.

The forecasted share of equipment scrapping for wear and tear, and obsolescence in 2015 is higher than the forecast for 2014 (51%). It has reached a level (56%) notably above its long-term average (49%). On the contrary, the forecasted share of scrapping due to shut-down of capacity for old products (9%) stays below its average (12%).