23 September 2014
2014- n° 220In September 2014, the business climate has declined in services Monthly survey of services - September 2014
According to business managers, the economic situation in services has declined in September 2014. The business climate composite indicator has dropped by two points and stands at 91, still below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable dynamic.
All services sector
According to business managers, the economic situation in services has declined in September 2014. The business climate composite indicator has dropped by two points and stands at 91, still below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator still indicates a favorable dynamic.
The balance of opinion on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector, remains low.
Business managers consider that the decline of their activity has softened in the recent period, but the balance of opinion remains below its long-term average. However, their expectations of activity for the next three months have gone down. Expectations of demand remain pessimistic.
The balances of opinion on past and expected employment remain below their long-term average.
tableauTable_quarter – Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | June 14 | July 14 | Aug. 14 | Sept. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 92 | 94 | 93 | 91 |
| General outlook | –8 | –16 | –16 | –18 | –18 |
| Past activity | 2 | –8 | –7 | –8 | –4 |
| Expected activity | 2 | –7 | –3 | –3 | –10 |
| Expected demand | –1 | –9 | –7 | –8 | –8 |
| Business situation | –3 | –9 | –13 | –10 | –12 |
| Past selling prices | –3 | –10 | –8 | –9 | –10 |
| Expected selling prices | –2 | –9 | –10 | –9 | –10 |
| Past employment | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | –2 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | –3 | –1 | –3 | –1 |
| Expected employment | 2 | –2 | –3 | –2 | 0 |
| except temporary work agencies | –1 | –3 | –6 | –4 | –4 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | –3 | –1 | 0 | 3 |
| Expected investments | 1 | –1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988
- Source: Insee
graphiqueGraph1 – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_retourn – Turning point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favorable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavorable).
graphiqueGraph2 – Activity
Road transport
In road freight and mail activities, the balance of opinion on past activity has decreased. Conversely, the balances of opinion on expected activity and expected demand have recovered.
Accommodation and food service activities
In accommodation and food service activities, business managers consider that their activity has noticeably accelerated over the recent period. Past employment has grew above its long-term trend. Nevertheless, their business prospects over the next few months have gone down.
Information and communication
In information and communication, the balance of opinion on past activity has remained deteriorated. Business managers’ expectations of activity and demand have declined.
Real estate activities
In real estate activities, the balances of opinion on past activity and on expected activity have remained below their long-term average. Employment is expected to increase. The corresponding balance is above its long-term average.
Professional, scientific and technical activities
In professional, scientific and technical activities, business managers consider that their activity has remained moderate in the recent months. But their business expectations have deteriorated.
Administrative and support service activities
In administrative and support service activities, the balance of opinion on past activity has remained almost stable below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on expected activity has decreased and stands below its long-term average.
graphiquegraph_bonus_ – Past activity
tableauTable_det – Detailed data
| A21 | Average* | June 14 | July 14 | Aug. 14 | Sept. 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (H) Road transport | |||||
| Past activity | –8 | –2 | –10 | –2 | –9 |
| Expected activity | –10 | –13 | –6 | –16 | –13 |
| Expected demand | –13 | –14 | –6 | –20 | –12 |
| Past employment | –8 | –10 | –11 | –11 | –9 |
| Expected employment | –11 | –9 | –7 | –8 | –2 |
| (I) Accommodation and food service activities | |||||
| Past activity | –7 | –14 | –18 | 0 | 13 |
| Expected activity | –7 | –3 | –6 | 1 | –18 |
| Expected demand | –9 | –7 | –6 | –9 | –11 |
| Past employment | –4 | –1 | 4 | –3 | 15 |
| Expected employment | –5 | 1 | –10 | –2 | –6 |
| (J) Information and communication | |||||
| Past activity | 9 | –21 | –9 | –13 | –14 |
| Expected activity | 11 | –20 | –2 | –2 | –15 |
| Expected demand | 11 | –8 | –2 | –4 | –13 |
| Past employment | 6 | –11 | –2 | –6 | –16 |
| Expected employment | 11 | –4 | –13 | –7 | –1 |
| (L) Real estate activities | |||||
| Past activity | 7 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Expected demand | 1 | –4 | –3 | –2 | –5 |
| Past employment | 3 | –4 | 2 | 0 | –7 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 11 |
| (M) Professional, scientific and technical activities | |||||
| Past activity | –1 | –6 | –5 | –9 | –3 |
| Expected activity | –2 | –3 | –6 | –10 | –14 |
| Expected demand | –5 | –12 | –14 | –14 | –14 |
| Past employment | 1 | 3 | 0 | –2 | –6 |
| Expected employment | 0 | –5 | –1 | –7 | –5 |
| (N) Administrative and support service activities | |||||
| Past activity | 6 | –3 | –4 | –4 | –3 |
| Expected activity | 5 | –2 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Expected demand | 3 | –7 | –2 | –3 | –1 |
| Past employment | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | –2 |
| Expected employment | 6 | –1 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,158 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
