23 September 2014
2014- n° 219In September 2014, the business climate remains deteriorated in the retail trade
and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - September 2014
According to the managers surveyed in September 2014, the business climate synthetic indicator remains deteriorated in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles. It stands at 91, significantly under its average.
According to the managers surveyed in September 2014, the business climate synthetic indicator remains deteriorated in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles. It stands at 91, significantly under its average.
graphiquegraph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator
Sharp decline in past activity
According to the business leaders, past activity has carried on declining over the last few months, as well in retail trade as in motor vehicles trade. However, fewer managers than in August have declared a fall in their expected sales and ordering intentions, although each of both balances has stayed under its average. Concerning general business outlook, they have remained rather low, showing that the managers are still pessimistic about the economic situation in the trade sector.
As many business leaders than in the previous surveys have noted a decrease in prices over the last and the next few months. Each of the two balances is near the mid-2009 level.
The cash-flow situation is considered rather difficult.
graphiqueGraph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions
tableautab1_en – Global data
| Ave. (1) | June 14 | July 14 | Aug. 14 | Sept. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 96 | 99 | 91 | 91 |
| General business outlook | –30 | –34 | –35 | –40 | –42 |
| Recent sales | –7 | –13 | –6 | –20 | –30 |
| Expected sales | –3 | –13 | –4 | –21 | –15 |
| Ordering intentions | –9 | –14 | –9 | –18 | –17 |
| Stocks | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –6 | –16 | –17 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –15 | –10 | –13 | –15 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –20 | –19 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 0 | –2 | 0 | –3 | –2 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –6 | –6 | –12 | –11 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE
Pessimistic future workforce trend
About workforce size, if the recent trend balance has stayed near its mean level, the future trend one is still very low.
Retail trade
Depressed activity in non-specialised retail trade
According to the non-specialised retailers, past sales have gone on deteriorating over the last few months, the corresponding balance reaching the very low level of June 1993. On the other hand, less specialised retailers than in August have declared a fall in their recent sales, even if the balance has remained under its average.
Concerning forecasts, all the retailers have been less pessimistic: each of both balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions has slightly risen, but staying under its mean level.
The level of stocks is still considered lower than its normal level.
In non-specialised trade, the balances concerning past and expected prices are located at very low levels, near the mid-2009 ones. In specialised trade, each of both balances has got nearer its average.
In both sub-sectors, the cash position has been deemed difficult.
Trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiquegraph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in motor vehicles
Decrease in past activity
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the managers have declared a significant decrease in their past sales, the corresponding balance being lower than its average yet. The balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions have stabilized under their mean levels.
The level of stocks has been still considered low.
More motor vehicles leaders than over the last interrogation have declared a fall in past prices. Less leaders might anticipate some in the future.
The cash-flow situation has been declared a little less difficult than in July.
tableautab2_en – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | June 14 | July 14 | Aug. 14 | Sept. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Recent sales | –5 | –14 | –6 | –23 | –33 |
| Expected sales | 0 | –12 | –4 | –21 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | –14 | –10 | –19 | –15 |
| Stocks | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –22 | –20 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –21 | –17 | –14 | –19 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –18 | –20 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | 0 | 3 | –1 | 0 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –4 | –5 | –11 | –12 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –2 | –15 | 4 | –21 | –44 |
| Expected sales | 5 | –9 | 6 | –18 | –10 |
| Ordering intentions | 1 | –6 | 1 | –13 | –13 |
| Stocks | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –29 | –27 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –23 | –21 | –17 | –30 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –9 | –14 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –10 | –13 | –18 | –26 | –19 |
| Expected sales | –7 | –15 | –19 | –21 | –18 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –20 | –21 | –24 | –19 |
| Stocks | 14 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 7 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –13 | –12 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –18 | –12 | –10 | –6 |
| Cash position (2) | –22 | –27 | –28 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Recent sales | –11 | –9 | –6 | –11 | –25 |
| Expected sales | –10 | –14 | –8 | –19 | –20 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –16 | –15 | –16 | –18 |
| Stocks | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | –2 | –9 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | 0 | 7 | –9 | –3 |
| Cash position (2) | –26 | –22 | –20 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –10 | –9 | –8 | –9 | –10 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –8 | –14 | –11 | –12 | –9 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
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