In November 2014, the business climate improved in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehiclesMonthly survey of retailing - November 2014

According to the managers surveyed in November 2014, the business climate improved in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles. The corresponding synthetic indicator has increased by six points. However, it remains under its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 266
Paru le : 25/11/2014
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2017 at 08:45 - December 2017

According to the managers surveyed in November 2014, the business climate improved in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles. The corresponding synthetic indicator has increased by six points. However, it remains under its long-term average.

graph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator

Less pessimistic past and expected activities

Fewer business leaders than in October have declared a fall in their past sales. The corresponding balance of opinion has risen, mainly because of the improvement seen in the motor car sector. In addition, fewer business leaders have expected a fall in their activity over the next few months: each of the three balances concerning expected sales, ordering intentions and general business outlook has gone up slightly, but remained under its average.

The level of stocks is considered a little higher and has reached its standard level.

The past prices balance has decreased again and reached the mid-2009 low level. The expected prices balance has progressed a little but has remained low.

Graph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions

tab1_en – Global data

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Global data
Ave. (1) Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14
Business climate 100 91 90 90 96
General business outlook –30 –40 –42 –41 –36
Recent sales –8 –20 –31 –24 –15
Expected sales –3 –21 –15 –12 –9
Ordering intentions –9 –18 –17 –17 –12
Stocks 10 4 7 8 10
Past selling prices (2) –6 –16 –24
Expected selling prices –3 –13 –15 –15 –11
Cash position (2) –15 –19 –22
Workforce size: recent trend 0 –3 –2 –4 –7
Workforce size: future trend –2 –12 –11 –13 –10
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE

Expectations on employment are a little better

According to managers, the pace in job losses has intensified over the last few months but might slow down in the next few months. Each of both balances has stayed significantly under its average.

Retail trade

Grim past and expected activities

Fewer non-specialised retailers than on the last survey have declared a drop in their past activity, but specialised retailers have indicated a new decrease in their past sales. Both balances have remained low. Forecasts have been grim overall in the retail trade: the expected sales balance has stabilised significantly below its average and that of ordering intentions has progressed a little but has remained under its mean level.

Stocks are considered near their normal level.

The past prices balance has nearly reached its lower level: it has been especially low in the non-specialised food trade and in home supplies specialised sector. Expected prices have stayed low.

Cash position is still considered as difficult.

Trade and repair of motor vehicles

Improvement in past and expected activities

According to managers in the trade and repair of motor vehicles, past sales have risen, the corresponding balance going up over its average. This dynamism might go on, due to expected sales and ordering intentions: each of both balances has progressed, over its average from now on.

The level of stocks is considered higher, near its standard level.

As many vehicles leaders as for the last questionnaire have declared a decline in past selling prices over the last few months. Fewer will probably anticipate a drop.

By contrast, cash position is considered as more difficult than in September.

tab2_en – Detailed data

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Detailed data
Ave. (1) Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14
Retail trade - Global data
Recent sales –6 –23 –33 –25 –21
Expected sales –1 –21 –14 –12 –13
Ordering intentions –7 –19 –15 –18 –12
Stocks 10 4 6 8 10
Past selling prices (2) –8 –19 –31
Expected selling prices –5 –14 –19 –19 –17
Cash position (2) –13 –19 –20
Workforce size: recent trend 1 –1 1 –3 –5
Workforce size: future trend –2 –11 –12 –12 –11
Non-specialized retail trade
Recent sales –2 –21 –44 –26 –14
Expected sales 5 –18 –10 0 –5
Ordering intentions 1 –13 –12 –9 –3
Stocks 7 4 3 4 6
Past selling prices (2) –8 –24 –38
Expected selling prices –5 –17 –29 –23 –16
Cash position (2) –7 –13 –14
Specialized retail trade
Recent sales –10 –26 –19 –24 –30
Expected sales –7 –21 –17 –21 –14
Ordering intentions –17 –24 –21 –24 –17
Stocks 14 4 10 13 14
Past selling prices (2) –8 –12 –23
Expected selling prices –5 –10 –6 –13 –18
Cash position (2) –22 –27 –28
Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles
Recent sales –11 –11 –25 –20 2
Expected sales –10 –19 –19 –10 0
Ordering intentions –14 –16 –19 –14 –11
Stocks 15 6 7 8 12
Past selling prices (2) 1 –7 –8
Expected selling prices 4 –9 –3 –2 3
Cash position (2) –26 –20 –24
Workforce size: recent trend –10 –9 –11 –7 –11
Workforce size: future trend –8 –12 –11 –11 –11
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE