23 September 2014
2014- n° 218The business climate in the wholesale trade goes on decreasing in September 2014 Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - September 2014
According to the managers surveyed in September 2014, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector goes on decreasing. The composite indicator has dropped by five points since July, staying below its long-term average.
- Total wholesale trade
- Decline in past activity
- Declining expected activity
- Pessimism about employment
- Prices estimed low
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialized wholesale trade
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in September 2014, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector goes on decreasing. The composite indicator has dropped by five points since July, staying below its long-term average.
The turning-point indicator has declined again and is now in the unfavourable area.
Decline in past activity
Wholesalers have noted a decline in their past sales as in their received merchandises. Each of both balances is significantly under its long-term average. Foreign exchanges, sales and received merchandise have been declared shrinking too, but the balances of opinion are less low.
Declining expected activity
The wholesalers’ forecasts have been decreasing: each of the balances concerning ordering intentions, in France or abroad, and shipments abroad, has dropped and become below its average. Besides, general outlook have carried on declining.
The stock level has stayed stable since March, below its normal level.
Pessimism about employment
According to wholesalers, workforce trend has decreased over the last few months, but might stabilise over the next months.
Prices estimed low
The past and expected prices balances have sharply dropped. They are close to their historical minima of May 2009.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).
tableautab_cgens – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | March 14 | May 14 | July 14 | Sept. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 99 | 99 | 97 | 92 |
| General outlook | –25 | –25 | –23 | –36 | –44 |
| Sales | –14 | –21 | –20 | –20 | –29 |
| export sales | –15 | –7 | –14 | –18 | –21 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –14 | –14 | –17 | –21 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –10 | –10 | –11 | –15 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –17 | –15 | –17 | –24 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –18 | –16 | –14 | –19 |
| Shipments abroad | –16 | –19 | –13 | –16 | –20 |
| Current stock | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –5 | –4 | –6 | –9 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | –2 | 0 | –6 | –5 |
| Cash position | –10 | –6 | –5 | –8 | –7 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | –7 | –8 | –10 | –22 |
| Expecting selling prices | 16 | 3 | 0 | –4 | –10 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Raw agricultural products and live animals
According to the wholesalers, activity in this sector is characterised by a substantial recovering in foreign exchanges, each of the balances getting closer to its average. Moreover, past sales have declined since the March 2014 survey.
Food products and beverages
In the food products and drink sector, the managers have noted a deterioration in their past sales and in the foreign exchanges, for four months for export sales.
Household goods
In the households goods sector, the balances concerning past activity and intend orders have declined, each of them being under its mean level from now on.
Capital goods in information and communication
According to the business leaders, past sales and ordering intentions have collapsed in the capital goods in information and communication sector. The level of stocks has been estimed much lower, significantly below its average.
Other industrial capital goods
In industrial capital goods wholesale, contractors have reported a decrease in their past and expected activity, in France or abroad.
Other specialized wholesale trade
In this sector, the balances concerning past sales, in France or abroad, and ordering intentions are low in September. However, wholesalers are less pessimistic about merchandise received from abroad.
graphiquegraph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect – Wholesale sectors
| MOY* | March 14 | May 14 | July 14 | Sept. 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –7 | –10 | –14 | –17 |
| Export sales | –15 | –2 | –14 | –33 | –11 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –18 | –14 | –26 | –12 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –8 | –10 | –18 | –16 |
| Current stock | 5 | –8 | –5 | –2 | 9 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –9 | –11 | –6 | –21 |
| Export sales | –12 | –4 | –12 | –18 | –24 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –3 | –12 | 5 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –12 | –12 | –15 | –17 |
| Current stock | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –23 | –15 | –8 | –19 |
| Export sales | –12 | 5 | 1 | 4 | –7 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –9 | –13 | –9 | –9 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –16 | –13 | –14 | –20 |
| Current stock | 12 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –15 | –16 | –8 | –22 |
| Export sales | –13 | –13 | –4 | –8 | –1 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | 3 | 11 | 1 | –7 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –3 | 1 | –2 | –27 |
| Current stock | 8 | 11 | 6 | 23 | –1 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –20 | –27 | –39 | –43 |
| Export sales | –21 | –18 | –13 | –24 | –38 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –10 | –7 | –19 | –27 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –25 | –25 | –30 | –39 |
| Current stock | 12 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –40 | –35 | –38 | –39 |
| Export sales | –19 | –17 | –40 | –26 | –29 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –20 | –17 | –17 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –27 | –20 | –17 | –28 |
| Current stock | 6 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
